Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2>Geopolitical tension has sharply escalated in the wake of yet another North Korean missile launch aimed in Japan’s general direction. For many investors already worried about overstretched valuations in global risk assets this could have been the perfect trigger for a sell-off. Yet, financial markets have been remarkably resilient. Is this just further evidence of a complacent bubble-mentality amongst global investors or something else? We also consider potential downside hedges in case…

SummaryGeopolitical tension has sharply escalated in the wake of yet another North Korean missile launch aimed in Japan’s general direction. For many investors already worried about overstretched valuations in global risk assets this could have been the perfect trigger for a sell-off. Yet, financial markets have been remarkably resilient. Is this just further evidence of a complacent bubble-mentality amongst global investors or something else? We also consider potential downside hedges in case…

The Market Sentimentalist - Cock-A-Doodle-Doo

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

Korea was a much loved market from the 277 area but we reversed to short at our 322 projection.We are now looking for tactical levels to add to shorts although we are already holding a 320 basis points short in our portfolio. The macro picture for Korea remains very bullish it now comes down to managing downside risk into the more volatile September period. Korea is prone to a downside overshoot stemming for a US equity correction in late August/September.Korea cleared a multi-year macro…

Korea was a much loved market from the 277 area but we reversed to short at our 322 projection.We are now looking for tactical levels to add to shorts although we are already holding a 320 basis points short in our portfolio. The macro picture for Korea remains very bullish it now comes down to managing downside risk into the more volatile September period. Korea is prone to a downside overshoot stemming for a US equity correction in late August/September.Korea cleared a multi-year macro…

Korea Short Add Levels and Macro Low Target

We have made a case for reducing long exposure and transitioning into a net short position in late July into early August and now see further evidence of a bear setup and a risk-off cycle into at least SeptemberRisk components - VIX bull flag upside breakout. We went long the VIX at 8.90 and last week called for the bull flag to break higher resulting in the spike to the 16-17 area. In our macro product we outlined trimming at 16 and look to add back to volatility later this week ahead of a…

We have made a case for reducing long exposure and transitioning into a net short position in late July into early August and now see further evidence of a bear setup and a risk-off cycle into at least SeptemberRisk components - VIX bull flag upside breakout. We went long the VIX at 8.90 and last week called for the bull flag to break higher resulting in the spike to the 16-17 area. In our macro product we outlined trimming at 16 and look to add back to volatility later this week ahead of a…

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

The non-consensus end Q2 growth into value switch focused on short MSCI tech versus long 50:50 mining and energy position is now almost 6% onside.Oil has joined the rally seen in industrial metals, with US inventories now down 10% from their March peak and the market shifting into backwardation.Shorting the USD and volatility have become one-way bets but both look likely to reverse into the autumn, undermining carry trades and cross market correlations.With plunging approval ratings, the…

The non-consensus end Q2 growth into value switch focused on short MSCI tech versus long 50:50 mining and energy position is now almost 6% onside.Oil has joined the rally seen in industrial metals, with US inventories now down 10% from their March peak and the market shifting into backwardation.Shorting the USD and volatility have become one-way bets but both look likely to reverse into the autumn, undermining carry trades and cross market correlations.With plunging approval ratings, the…

Oil Joins 'Surprise' Resource Rally, as Japan Looks Past Abe Era…

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

This is an action point update we issued to this morning to core clients but felt the inflection we are facing is so compelling that we would update SK readers with a brief webcast. To bring you up to speed, our macro product has touted an equity cycle peak due in late July/early August with a cycle date that unfolded yesterday and runs through August 7 which is associated with trend reversals and declines of approximately 8.5% in US equities. Given a DXY low EM's are due for a bigger fall…

This is an action point update we issued to this morning to core clients but felt the inflection we are facing is so compelling that we would update SK readers with a brief webcast. To bring you up to speed, our macro product has touted an equity cycle peak due in late July/early August with a cycle date that unfolded yesterday and runs through August 7 which is associated with trend reversals and declines of approximately 8.5% in US equities. Given a DXY low EM's are due for a bigger fall…

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

The Market Sentimentalist - Cock-A-Doodle-Doo

SummaryGeopolitical tension has sharply escalated in the wake of yet another North Korean missile launch aimed in Japan’s general direction. For...

Amareos

Korea Short Add Levels and Macro Low Target

Korea was a much loved market from the 277 area but we reversed to short at our 322 projection.We are now looking for tactical levels to add to...

Thomas Schroeder

Equity Decline Just Kicking Off

We have made a case for reducing long exposure and transitioning into a net short position in late July into early August and now see further...

Thomas Schroeder

Oil Joins 'Surprise' Resource Rally, as Japan Looks Past Abe Era…

The non-consensus end Q2 growth into value switch focused on short MSCI tech versus long 50:50 mining and energy position is now almost 6%...

Sean Maher

Raising Short Bets Ahead of Summer Rout

This is an action point update we issued to this morning to core clients but felt the inflection we are facing is so compelling that we would...

Thomas Schroeder