Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

Recent indications of a weaker USD and the relative / renewed stability in many Equity Indices seem to provide an opportunity in South Korea's Kospi IndexIf the signs of USD weakness are correct in a generally low volatile environment, South Korea's Won starts to look attractive. Furthermore the Kospi Index itself looks more stable after testing decent levels around 3,050.Combining this, there is a clear range on the Kospi in USD terms which now gives the indication of a turn back up from the base of the year's range and points tothe possibility of a rally to the tune of some 8%

Recent indications of a weaker USD and the relative / renewed stability in many Equity Indices seem to provide an opportunity in South Korea's Kospi IndexIf the signs of USD weakness are correct in a generally low volatile environment, South Korea's Won starts to look attractive. Furthermore the Kospi Index itself looks more stable after testing decent levels around 3,050.Combining this, there is a clear range on the Kospi in USD terms which now gives the indication of a turn back up from the base of the year's range and points tothe possibility of a rally to the tune of some 8%

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> nearing the end of their first 15 days of trading, they are a certainty to be included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the September rebalance that coincides with the index futures expiry.Post the changes at the June rebalance, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lock-lock-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4739:1" rel="noopener">Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jw-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18784:1" rel="noopener">Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS)</a> as the lowest ranked constituents and the stocks could be deleted at the September rebalance.We expect the announcement of the changes on 1 September and the implementation at the close of trading on 9 September.The impact from passive trading is not very high on the inclusions while the impact on the potential deletions is a lot higher. There is a bit of short interest on the potential deletions and some of that could be covered in the lead up to index deletion.The dynamics of the index changes are pretty interesting. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (323410 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (259960 KS)</a> will be short-sell eligible from 10 September while the deletions will no longer be short-sell eligible. We suggest potential trading strategies to take advantage of these dynamics.

With KakaoBank (323410 KS) and  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) nearing the end of their first 15 days of trading, they are a certainty to be included in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the September rebalance that coincides with the index futures expiry.Post the changes at the June rebalance, we see Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS) and Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS) as the lowest ranked constituents and the stocks could be deleted at the September rebalance.We expect the announcement of the changes on 1 September and the implementation at the close of trading on 9 September.The impact from passive trading is not very high on the inclusions while the impact on the potential deletions is a lot higher. There is a bit of short interest on the potential deletions and some of that could be covered in the lead up to index deletion.The dynamics of the index changes are pretty interesting. KakaoBank (323410 KS) and  Krafton Inc (259960 KS) will be short-sell eligible from 10 September while the deletions will no longer be short-sell eligible. We suggest potential trading strategies to take advantage of these dynamics.

KOSPI200 September Rebalance Preview: Double Edged Sword

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

The Kospi Index has fallen back to key levels that must again be watched closely.The rise in both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krw" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22828:1" rel="noopener">KRW (USDKRW CURNCY)</a> and JPYKRW are early warning signs that there could be trouble ahead.A break below 3,252 would be an initial bearish sign while a close below 3,220 would confirm that there is likely to be notable danger ahead.

The Kospi Index has fallen back to key levels that must again be watched closely.The rise in both KRW (USDKRW CURNCY) and JPYKRW are early warning signs that there could be trouble ahead.A break below 3,252 would be an initial bearish sign while a close below 3,220 would confirm that there is likely to be notable danger ahead.

While the Kospi Index is only marginally below the trend highs, the developments on JPYKRW warn of something more serious ahead. A breach of 10.43 on JPYKRW and 3,205 on the Kospi Index, if and when both seen, would be important developments.

While the Kospi Index is only marginally below the trend highs, the developments on JPYKRW warn of something more serious ahead. A breach of 10.43 on JPYKRW and 3,205 on the Kospi Index, if and when both seen, would be important developments.

Kospi Index - Emerging Concerns Beneath the Surface

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2021 review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> in November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 9 December.There could be a change at the September futures expiry with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sd-biosensor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33333:1" rel="noopener">SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS)</a> getting Fast Entry into the index. We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lock-lock-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4739:1" rel="noopener">Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS)</a> as a potential deletion to make way for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sd-biosensor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33333:1" rel="noopener">SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS)</a>. At the current time, we see 3 potential changes at the regular review in December with F&amp;F Co (383220 KS), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20694:1" rel="noopener">Sl Corp (005850 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seah-besteel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11760:1" rel="noopener">Seah Besteel (001430 KS)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samyang-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9100:1" rel="noopener">Samyang Foods (003230 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/f-f-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15983:1" rel="noopener">F&amp;F Co Ltd (007700 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jw-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18784:1" rel="noopener">Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS)</a>. These names could change over the next few months and their prices (and the prices of the other stocks) move around.After the 100%+ returns in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> June review by buying the inclusions and selling the exclusions (or the KOSPI2 index futures), there will be a lot of interest in the December review.In this Insight we look at the KOSPI 200 index methodology, the historical performance of inclusions vs exclusions, at potential candidates for inclusion/exclusion in this review and some of the details around the names.

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2021 review of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) in November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 9 December.There could be a change at the September futures expiry with SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS) getting Fast Entry into the index. We see Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS) as a potential deletion to make way for SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS). At the current time, we see 3 potential changes at the regular review in December with F&amp;F Co (383220 KS), Sl Corp (005850 KS) and Seah Besteel (001430 KS) replacing Samyang Foods (003230 KS), F&amp;F Co Ltd (007700 KS) and Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS). These names could change over the next few months and their prices (and the prices of the other stocks) move around.After the 100%+ returns in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) June review by buying the inclusions and selling the exclusions (or the KOSPI2 index futures), there will be a lot of interest in the December review.In this Insight we look at the KOSPI 200 index methodology, the historical performance of inclusions vs exclusions, at potential candidates for inclusion/exclusion in this review and some of the details around the names.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Focus Shifts to December After a Fantastic June Review

South Korea

The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1980. Note: The preferred shares are excluded in calculating the KOSPI Index from June 14, 2002. 

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

Kospi Index Opportunities

The Kospi Index when measured in USD terms is looking increasingly attractive as equity markets stabilise and the USD looks more vulnerable

Shyam Devani

KOSPI200 September Rebalance Preview: Double Edged Sword

KakaoBank and Krafton are high probability inclusions to the KOSPI200 in September while Lock&Lock and JW Pharma are potential deletions. KakaoBank...

Brian Freitas

Kospi Index Retesting the Pivot Area

The Kospi Index has pulled back to important levels again and is looking vulnerable. What happens here is likely to be important

Shyam Devani

Kospi Index - Emerging Concerns Beneath the Surface

Is the FX market giving more potent signs for South Korea? A breach of 10.43 on JPYKRW and 3,205 on the Kospi Index, if and when both seen, would...

Shyam Devani

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Focus Shifts to December After a Fantastic June Review

We see 1 potential change in September and 3 potential changes at the KOSPI200 December review. Post the excellent returns at the June rebalance,...

Brian Freitas