Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> in May with the changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 10 June.</p><p>We currently see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taihan-electric-wire-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11551:1" rel="noopener">Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongwon-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1783:1" rel="noopener">Dongwon Industries (006040 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyosung-advanced-materials-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27751:1" rel="noopener">Hyosung Advanced Materials C (298050 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyosung-tnc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27749:1" rel="noopener">Hyosung TNC Co Ltd (298020 KS)</a> as potential inclusions in the index, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taeyoung-engineering-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18740:1" rel="noopener">Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/namsun-aluminum-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17514:1" rel="noopener">Namsun Aluminum (008350 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanil-hyundai-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14406:1" rel="noopener">Hanil Hyundai Cement (006390 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/binggrae-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16424:1" rel="noopener">Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS)</a> as the corresponding exclusions.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> is expected to list on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22911:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)</a> market in March and there is a possibility that the stock gets Fast Entry into the index. That could see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sebang-global-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9618:1" rel="noopener">Sebang Global Battery (004490 KS)</a> being deleted from the index.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krafton-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28956:1" rel="noopener"> Krafton Inc (1486402D KS)</a> is another possible Fast Entry into the index though there are few details available on when the stock is expected to list.</p><p>The short sell ban in Korea has been extended to 2 May. Stocks that are constituents of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> can be short sold from 3 May. The commencement of short selling on these stocks prior to the announcement of the June review changes could result in the expected inclusions outperforming the expected exclusions and opening up other interesting trading strategies.</p>

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the June 2021 review of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) in May with the changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 10 June.We currently see Taihan Electric Wire (001440 KS), Dongwon Industries (006040 KS), Hyosung Advanced Materials C (298050 KS) and Hyosung TNC Co Ltd (298020 KS) as potential inclusions in the index, with Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction (009410 KS), Namsun Aluminum (008350 KS), Hanil Hyundai Cement (006390 KS) and Binggrae Co Ltd (005180 KS) as the corresponding exclusions.SK Bioscience (302440 KS) is expected to list on the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX) market in March and there is a possibility that the stock gets Fast Entry into the index. That could see Sebang Global Battery (004490 KS) being deleted from the index. Krafton Inc (1486402D KS) is another possible Fast Entry into the index though there are few details available on when the stock is expected to list.The short sell ban in Korea has been extended to 2 May. Stocks that are constituents of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) can be short sold from 3 May. The commencement of short selling on these stocks prior to the announcement of the June review changes could result in the expected inclusions outperforming the expected exclusions and opening up other interesting trading strategies.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Increasing Number of Potential Changes

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<div>Markets are now overdone on a short term basis and once again kissing the topside of the SPX rising wedge where we are selling some risk and layering into protection.</div><div>
<br>Bull momentum call to push toward the rising resistance at the top of the wedge near 2,930 but with time translation would shift right/up toward 3,940. Bet is to lock in some long gains into this zone and put on a few shorts for a minor pullback ahead of a fresh rally into late Feb. The directional bet is to buy equities on weakness (given SPX 3,800 holds) for a bigger cycle peak due in late Feb. Late Feb peak would usher in a harder corrective cycle into late March but let's see how the late Feb timeline unfolds first.</div><div></div><div>Spaces to short are outlined with entry, stops and PT's. We like buying our bull group again on a pullback into late February.</div>

Markets are now overdone on a short term basis and once again kissing the topside of the SPX rising wedge where we are selling some risk and layering into protection.
 Bull momentum call to push toward the rising resistance at the top of the wedge near 2,930 but with time translation would shift right/up toward 3,940. Bet is to lock in some long gains into this zone and put on a few shorts for a minor pullback ahead of a fresh rally into late Feb. The directional bet is to buy equities on weakness (given SPX 3,800 holds) for a bigger cycle peak due in late Feb. Late Feb peak would usher in a harder corrective cycle into late March but let's see how the late Feb timeline unfolds first.Spaces to short are outlined with entry, stops and PT's. We like buying our bull group again on a pullback into late February.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

<div>Asia lean was on the short side (STI, HSI, KLSE, SET, Japan and India banks). Short protection called for in Taiwan and Korea for a pullback cycle. USD rally risk will add to pressure now that the USD/KRW has cleared resistance (we are long from 1,080).</div><div></div><div>Long equity and short the USD is a crowded trade and we are poised for a shakeout in the next few weeks. We like selling equities on a bounce attempt and buying the USD on dips into early February but divergences suggest this may start to see a bigger unwind.</div>

Asia lean was on the short side (STI, HSI, KLSE, SET, Japan and India banks). Short protection called for in Taiwan and Korea for a pullback cycle. USD rally risk will add to pressure now that the USD/KRW has cleared resistance (we are long from 1,080).Long equity and short the USD is a crowded trade and we are poised for a shakeout in the next few weeks. We like selling equities on a bounce attempt and buying the USD on dips into early February but divergences suggest this may start to see a bigger unwind.

<p>Our most bullish stance in Asia has been in Japan, Korea and Taiwan (core Asia) and now starting to see rotation into Hong Kong. Tactically, we are seeing rally exhaustion signs as the SPX chisels out a top at the upper rising wedge range. Asia is showing signs of a tactical peak after a good run as Japan struggles at the top end of its own wedge range, Korea testing a secondary top and Taiwan above 16,000 projection. Buy levels on a minor correction are outlined to increase risk bets for a push into late February.</p>

Our most bullish stance in Asia has been in Japan, Korea and Taiwan (core Asia) and now starting to see rotation into Hong Kong. Tactically, we are seeing rally exhaustion signs as the SPX chisels out a top at the upper rising wedge range. Asia is showing signs of a tactical peak after a good run as Japan struggles at the top end of its own wedge range, Korea testing a secondary top and Taiwan above 16,000 projection. Buy levels on a minor correction are outlined to increase risk bets for a push into late February.

<p>As the USD moves into extreme oversold territory we are on the hunt for short hedges in Asia and present positioning on the short side into strength this week. Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been our core long group but nearing secondary resistance levels. Dip support targets outlined to trade a push high and then prepare for a mid to late January risk draw down that sets the stage a drive higher in February/March.</p>

As the USD moves into extreme oversold territory we are on the hunt for short hedges in Asia and present positioning on the short side into strength this week. Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been our core long group but nearing secondary resistance levels. Dip support targets outlined to trade a push high and then prepare for a mid to late January risk draw down that sets the stage a drive higher in February/March.

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Increasing Number of Potential Changes

We see 4 potential changes to the KOSPI200 index at the June review (up from 1 change in Nov). With the short sell ban expiring on 2 May for...

Brian Freitas

SPX Top of Wedge Sell Zone

Markets are now overdone on a short term basis and once again kissing the topside of the SPX rising wedge where we are selling some risk and...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia Pullback Protection with USD Risk

Long equity and short the USD is a crowded trade and we are poised for a shakeout in the next few weeks. We like selling equities on a bounce...

Thomas Schroeder

Core Asia Buy Targets

Our most bullish stance in Asia has been in core Asia. Tactically, we are seeing rally exhaustion signs. Take profit and protection levels noted...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia Long and Short 2021 Kick Off

As the USD moves into oversold territory we are on the hunt for short hedges in Asia and present short positions into strength this week. Core Asia...

Thomas Schroeder

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