Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
As the year comes to its end, the trading calendar is impacted by two shortened weeks, with the Christmas holiday and New Year’s Day both falling midweek.</li>
<li>Holidays market trends can be affected by various non-market factors but it's always good to check the indexes probability of trend reversals, to avoid surprises.
</li>
<li>In this insight, we’ll take a quick look at the major Asia-Pacific market indices—a 'Christmas Carousel of Odds' for Asian markets, if you will.</li>
</ul>



As the year comes to its end, the trading calendar is impacted by two shortened weeks, with the Christmas holiday and New Year’s Day both falling midweek.
Holidays market trends can be affected by various non-market factors but it's always good to check the indexes probability of trend reversals, to avoid surprises.

In this insight, we’ll take a quick look at the major Asia-Pacific market indices—a 'Christmas Carousel of Odds' for Asian markets, if you will.


HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Risk reward for owning implied vol has shifted to the long side here given spot/vol dynamics and limited vol upside since market peaked 17% higher.</li>
<li>Strong price action after a soggy start to the week sees a significant portion of open interest cleared out.</li>
<li>Largest open interest is at the 300 strike with ~ 42k Put contracts outstanding.</li>
</ul>


Risk reward for owning implied vol has shifted to the long side here given spot/vol dynamics and limited vol upside since market peaked 17% higher.
Strong price action after a soggy start to the week sees a significant portion of open interest cleared out.
Largest open interest is at the 300 strike with ~ 42k Put contracts outstanding.


EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 09 - 13

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>The impact of South Korea's political turmoil on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and implied volatility has been limited. Implied volatility has risen, and the skew steepened but not to extreme levels.</li>
<li>The shape of the skew, in combination with the interplay between index and skew change, open up an opportunity for opportunistic option trades, in particular short otm calls and/or puts.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> risk is probably skewed to the downside favoring short calls. Choice of strike and expiry is guided by quantitative analysis, option liquidity, and risk-return potential.</li>
</ul>


The impact of South Korea's political turmoil on the KOSPI 200 and implied volatility has been limited. Implied volatility has risen, and the skew steepened but not to extreme levels.
The shape of the skew, in combination with the interplay between index and skew change, open up an opportunity for opportunistic option trades, in particular short otm calls and/or puts.

KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) risk is probably skewed to the downside favoring short calls. Choice of strike and expiry is guided by quantitative analysis, option liquidity, and risk-return potential.


EQD | Kospi 200 (KOSPI2) - Identifying Option Opportunities Amid Political Turmoil

<ul>
<li>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-the-landing-area-for-the-kospi-200-is-in-sight" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previously posted</a> view on an upcoming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a>'s rally has not been changed by the attempted political coup. The market pulled back a bit, no big deal.</li>
<li>The index is in the process of bottoming, as we will see from the analysis of our QUANTCHARTS / models.</li>
<li>Even if the index suddenly crashes, we have identified an area for support in that event (keep reading).</li>
</ul>


Our previously posted view on an upcoming KOSPI 200's rally has not been changed by the attempted political coup. The market pulled back a bit, no big deal.
The index is in the process of bottoming, as we will see from the analysis of our QUANTCHARTS / models.
Even if the index suddenly crashes, we have identified an area for support in that event (keep reading).


EQD | The KOSPI 200 Forecast (After The Attempted Coup)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> is in a steady bear market with political turmoil further depressing the outlook. Volatility increased in the near term, leading to an inverted term structure.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 50</a> is approaching its 50-day average from below. Call options profit from low implied volatility and present an attractive opportunity to profit on the upside.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng</a> continues to stand out as the index with positive correlation between implied volatility and index performance. Interestingly, the relationship is not symmetric between up- and down moves.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 is in a steady bear market with political turmoil further depressing the outlook. Volatility increased in the near term, leading to an inverted term structure.
The Nifty 50 is approaching its 50-day average from below. Call options profit from low implied volatility and present an attractive opportunity to profit on the upside.
The Hang Seng continues to stand out as the index with positive correlation between implied volatility and index performance. Interestingly, the relationship is not symmetric between up- and down moves.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Kospi 200, Hang Seng, Nifty 50

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

Trading calendar has 2 upcoming shortened weeks, this insight is offer analysis of the major Asia/Pacific indices to highlight potential sudden...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 09 - 13

Implied volatility positioning favors long side due to spot/vol dynamics and limited upside since market peak. Strong price action sees...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi 200 (KOSPI2) - Identifying Option Opportunities Amid Political Turmoil

South Korea's political turmoil has limited impact on KOSPI 200 and implied volatility. The current volatility skew, index dynamics, combined with...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | The KOSPI 200 Forecast (After The Attempted Coup)

FORECAST. Despite a recent political coup attempt, our view on the potential KOSPI 200's rally stands: we identify support for an hypothetical...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Kospi 200, Hang Seng, Nifty 50

Option strategies with a focus on Asia. The Kospi 200 in a bear market amid political turmoil. Nifty 50 approaching its 50-day average in a bullish...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSI, Nikkei 225, NIFTY 50, Kospi 200, ASX 200, CSI 300: Year-End Trends and Holiday Market Moves!

​Trading calendar has 2 upcoming shortened weeks, this insight is offer analysis of the major Asia/Pacific indices to highlight potential sudden...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 09 - 13

​Implied volatility positioning favors long side due to spot/vol dynamics and limited upside since market peak. Strong price action sees...

John Ley

EQD | Kospi 200 (KOSPI2) - Identifying Option Opportunities Amid Political Turmoil

​South Korea's political turmoil has limited impact on KOSPI 200 and implied volatility. The current volatility skew, index dynamics, combined with...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | The KOSPI 200 Forecast (After The Attempted Coup)

​FORECAST. Despite a recent political coup attempt, our view on the potential KOSPI 200's rally stands: we identify support for an hypothetical...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Kospi 200, Hang Seng, Nifty 50

Option strategies with a focus on Asia. The Kospi 200 in a bear market amid political turmoil. Nifty 50 approaching its 50-day average in a bullish...

Gaudenz Schneider

Trading calendar has 2 upcoming shortened weeks, this insight is offer analysis of the major Asia/Pacific indices to highlight potential sudden...

Implied volatility positioning favors long side due to spot/vol dynamics and limited upside since market peak. Strong price action sees...

South Korea's political turmoil has limited impact on KOSPI 200 and implied volatility. The current volatility skew, index dynamics, combined with...

FORECAST. Despite a recent political coup attempt, our view on the potential KOSPI 200's rally stands: we identify support for an hypothetical...