Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March 2022 constituent changes for the STOXX Europe 600 and the EURO STOXX Indices were announced on 1st March 2022. </li>
<li>The Index Changes will be implemented (Inclusion Event) at the close of 18th March 2022 (Friday) and the changes will be effective from 21st March 2022 (Monday). </li>
<li>So far, the LONG-SHORT baskets suggested by Quiddity have done extremely well. Below are my thoughts for the remainder of the timeline.</li>
</ul>


The March 2022 constituent changes for the STOXX Europe 600 and the EURO STOXX Indices were announced on 1st March 2022. 
The Index Changes will be implemented (Inclusion Event) at the close of 18th March 2022 (Friday) and the changes will be effective from 21st March 2022 (Monday). 
So far, the LONG-SHORT baskets suggested by Quiddity have done extremely well. Below are my thoughts for the remainder of the timeline.


STOXX Europe Indices: March 2022 Rebalance Trade So Far So Good. What Next?

<ul>
<li>The European Benchmark Indices (BMI) of the STOXX family are reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December. The March 2022 constituent changes were announced yesterday.</li>
<li>In this insight, we mainly focus on the constituent changes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and the EURO STOXX Index.</li>
<li>In addition, we also take a look at the timeline, expected Inclusion/Exclusion Parameters for these candidates, historical performance of past rebalance events, and a potential trading strategy for March 2022.</li>
</ul>


The European Benchmark Indices (BMI) of the STOXX family are reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December. The March 2022 constituent changes were announced yesterday.
In this insight, we mainly focus on the constituent changes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index and the EURO STOXX Index.
In addition, we also take a look at the timeline, expected Inclusion/Exclusion Parameters for these candidates, historical performance of past rebalance events, and a potential trading strategy for March 2022.


STOXX Europe Indices: Constituent Changes and Trading Strategy March 2022

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we are now seeing meaningful improvement within emerging markets (EEM-US) as the Hang Seng index displays bullish price and relative strength (RS) reversals.</li>
<li>Brent and WTI crude oil are hitting 8-year highs, base metals are bullishly inflecting, and critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes.</li>
<li>Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include Materials and Industrials/Manufacturing -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely constructive and we are now seeing meaningful improvement within emerging markets (EEM-US) as the Hang Seng index displays bullish price and relative strength (RS) reversals.
Brent and WTI crude oil are hitting 8-year highs, base metals are bullishly inflecting, and critical supports are holding on the broad global indexes.
Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include Materials and Industrials/Manufacturing -- add exposure.


Sticking With Value; Buying Materials & Industrials

Norway

Kongsberg Gruppen ASA develops, manufactures and markets high-technology aerospace and defense products, as well as systems for armed forces in Norway and other countries.  The Company produces anti-ship missiles, launchers, missile control systems, weapon control systems, and maritime and air traffic surveillance systems.

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Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG NO)

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

STOXX Europe Indices: March 2022 Rebalance Trade So Far So Good. What Next?

The LONG-SHORT Trades for the STOXX Europe 600 and EURO STOXX Indices March 2022 Rebalance has performed well so far. Below is a discussion on my...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STOXX Europe Indices: Constituent Changes and Trading Strategy March 2022

STOXX Europe 600 announced 9 Adds and 9 Deletes for March 2022. Here is a closer look at the constituency changes and potential trading strategies...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Sticking With Value; Buying Materials & Industrials

Sticking with the theme from last week when we recommended Energy and Financials, two more Sectors that stand to benefit from rising rates include...

Vermilion Research

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