US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>IPO lock-up expiry of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> results in a forecasted increase in free float to 35% and fcap of $2.9bn for the August 2024 review. </li>
<li>Secondary offering of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> results in a forecasted increase in free float to 60-65% and latest fcap of $3.4bn- $3.7bn for the November 2024 review. </li>
<li>Inclusion will be determined based on fcap against the fcap threshold. Fcap uncertainty for November is largely driven by stock price fluctuations and the Greenshoe Option. </li>
</ul>


IPO lock-up expiry of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 35% and fcap of $2.9bn for the August 2024 review. 
Secondary offering of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 60-65% and latest fcap of $3.4bn- $3.7bn for the November 2024 review. 
Inclusion will be determined based on fcap against the fcap threshold. Fcap uncertainty for November is largely driven by stock price fluctuations and the Greenshoe Option. 


Kokusai Electric (6525): Global Index Inclusion Highly Dependent on Free Float

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> could price their secondary offering after market close today. The stock is down 10.5% since the rumors of the placement began 7 trading sessions ago.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philadelphia-stock-exchange-semiconductor-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32992:1" rel="noopener">Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)</a> has been dropping over the last few days and is 8.6% lower over the last 8 trading days.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> has been trading higher on expectations of index inclusion in August, but that could move to November now.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) could price their secondary offering after market close today. The stock is down 10.5% since the rumors of the placement began 7 trading sessions ago.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) has been dropping over the last few days and is 8.6% lower over the last 8 trading days.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) has been trading higher on expectations of index inclusion in August, but that could move to November now.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$2.0 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>’s shares are down 5.6% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,520 per share (8 July).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Kokusai’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$2.0 billion secondary placement announcement, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)’s shares are down 5.6% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,520 per share (8 July).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Kokusai’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 22 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): The Current Playbook

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR</a> and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through an extended secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 22.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>We have looked at the lockup expiry and deal dynamics in our earlier notes.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about share price performance since then.</li>
</ul>



KKR and KSP Kokusai Investments are looking to raise approximately US$1.7bn through an extended secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 22.3% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP). 
We have looked at the lockup expiry and deal dynamics in our earlier notes.
In this note, we talk about share price performance since then.


Kokusai Electric Placement Updates - Misbehaving

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, there were a number of listing in the past week, most of which performed as per our expectations.</li>
<li>On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, there were a number of listing in the past week, most of which performed as per our expectations.
On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows.


ECM Weekly (15th July 2024) - Kokusai, Wiwynn, Kelun-Biotech, Timee, Shift Up, Sanil, Avanse

Japan

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

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Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)

Kokusai Electric (6525): Global Index Inclusion Highly Dependent on Free Float

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was added at this August 2024 review. It is estimated that the IPO lock-up expiry resulted in the forecasted increase in...

Dimitris Ioannidis