Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Koei Tecmo delivered strong results with revenue of ¥18.1bn and OP of ¥10.7bn comfortably beating consensus of ¥16.2bn and ¥5.7bn respectively. </li>
<li>OP guidance was raised from an absurdly conservative ¥24.5bn to a still conservative ¥31.5bn, below consensus at ¥33.6bn. </li>
<li>While these results look broadly positive we are concerned that the recent sell off may continue.</li>
</ul>


Koei Tecmo delivered strong results with revenue of ¥18.1bn and OP of ¥10.7bn comfortably beating consensus of ¥16.2bn and ¥5.7bn respectively. 
OP guidance was raised from an absurdly conservative ¥24.5bn to a still conservative ¥31.5bn, below consensus at ¥33.6bn. 
While these results look broadly positive we are concerned that the recent sell off may continue.


Koei Tecmo – Nice on the Surface But We Are Worried

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today the Osaka Supreme Court dismissed OK Corp's Permission Appeal regarding the EGM approving the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-super-market-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15519:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Super</a> merger with H2O subs Izumiya and Hankyu Oasis. That merger is Effective tomorrow.</li>
<li>OK Corp announced it would sell its shares in Kansai Super back to the company - as planned. </li>
<li>A disappointing ruling (especially given the TKS case) which will affect AGMs/EGMs going forward. And it means a soft share price and hard shareholder structure problem for Kansai Super near-term.</li>
</ul>


Today the Osaka Supreme Court dismissed OK Corp's Permission Appeal regarding the EGM approving the Kansai Super merger with H2O subs Izumiya and Hankyu Oasis. That merger is Effective tomorrow.
OK Corp announced it would sell its shares in Kansai Super back to the company - as planned. 
A disappointing ruling (especially given the TKS case) which will affect AGMs/EGMs going forward. And it means a soft share price and hard shareholder structure problem for Kansai Super near-term.


Kansai Super (9919) Merger OKed. OK Tender Going Nowhere. OK Going Home.

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>Koei Tecmo Holdings announced the issuance of CBs, and the repurchase of its own shares and a tender offer for its own shares to comply with Prime Market listing standards.</li>
<li>I wonder if they had to issue CBs, which would have diluted shareholder interest to some extent. There is a way to sell shares in several rounds within four years.</li>
<li>Decrease in founder's stake tends not to be positive for the stock price in long run. Depending on founder's future involvement in the company, it may move to next stage.</li>
</ul>


Koei Tecmo Holdings announced the issuance of CBs, and the repurchase of its own shares and a tender offer for its own shares to comply with Prime Market listing standards.
I wonder if they had to issue CBs, which would have diluted shareholder interest to some extent. There is a way to sell shares in several rounds within four years.
Decrease in founder's stake tends not to be positive for the stock price in long run. Depending on founder's future involvement in the company, it may move to next stage.


Japan's Governance: TSE Market Reclassification and Equity Finance : Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koei-tecmo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20277:1" rel="noopener">Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP)</a> today announced a CB offering, a buyback tender offer, and an intention to apply to join TSE Prime.</li>
<li>The two main shareholders will tender a total of 9.9mm shares, and the CB issuance/redemption would bring tradable shares to 36%.</li>
<li>We were waiting for this. We knew they had to do something. And this is about as well-structured as possible for shareholders. </li>
</ul>



Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP) today announced a CB offering, a buyback tender offer, and an intention to apply to join TSE Prime.
The two main shareholders will tender a total of 9.9mm shares, and the CB issuance/redemption would bring tradable shares to 36%.
We were waiting for this. We knew they had to do something. And this is about as well-structured as possible for shareholders. 


Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) - Complex But Lower Impact Move To Stay in TSE Prime (Buyback+CB Issuance)

<p>Epic Games’ Fortnite will be shutting down in China on the 15<sup>th</sup> of November after a two-year testing period. This is a good sign to us that China’s gaming sector is now a structural short. It also increases the probability of our call that Epic may not need Tencent as a shareholder anymore being realised in some form or the other.</p>

Epic Games’ Fortnite will be shutting down in China on the 15th of November after a two-year testing period. This is a good sign to us that China’s gaming sector is now a structural short. It also increases the probability of our call that Epic may not need Tencent as a shareholder anymore being realised in some form or the other.

Tencent – Fortnite Is Punching Out and You Should Too

Japan

Koei Tecmo Holdings Co.,Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Koei Co., Ltd. and Tecmo Ltd. The Company develops and distributes video game software for personal computers and home video game consoles. The Company also operates other media business such as marketing of books and CDs and amusement facility operation.

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Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP)

Koei Tecmo – Nice on the Surface But We Are Worried

Koei Tecmo delivered strong results with revenue of ¥18.1bn and OP of ¥10.7bn comfortably beating consensus. While these results look positive we...

Mio Kato

Kansai Super (9919) Merger OKed. OK Tender Going Nowhere. OK Going Home.

Kansai Super (9919)'s merger with H2O sub Izumiya and Hankyu Oasis will go through tomorrow, after the Supreme Court decided against OK Corp, who...

Travis Lundy

Japan's Governance: TSE Market Reclassification and Equity Finance : Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635)

Koei Tecmo posted the issuance of CBs and the repurchase of its own shares and a tender offer for its own shares to comply with Prime Market...

Metrical Inc

Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) - Complex But Lower Impact Move To Stay in TSE Prime (Buyback+CB Issuance)

Koei Tecmo (3635) was one of the largest TSE1 stocks remaining unlikely to meet the criteria required to remain in TSE Prime. They now have a...

Travis Lundy

Tencent – Fortnite Is Punching Out and You Should Too

Epic Games’ Fortnite will be shutting down in China on the 15th of November after a two-year testing period. This is a good sign to us that China’s...

Mio Kato

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