Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Ishares Global Consumer Disc / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.</li>
<li>Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.
Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.


Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Koei Tecmo’s earnings yesterday were on the strong side with 4Q OP beating by 28.7% despite a 1.79% miss at the top line. </li>
<li>Thus, the typical pattern of heavy expensing of development costs in 4Q was missing and combined with some one offs could make hurdles for next year high. </li>
<li>With the stock struggling to gain positive momentum and few clear positive catalysts on the horizon we remain negative.</li>
</ul>


Koei Tecmo’s earnings yesterday were on the strong side with 4Q OP beating by 28.7% despite a 1.79% miss at the top line. 
Thus, the typical pattern of heavy expensing of development costs in 4Q was missing and combined with some one offs could make hurdles for next year high. 
With the stock struggling to gain positive momentum and few clear positive catalysts on the horizon we remain negative.


<ul>
<li>Koei Tecmo appears to have made some strides in improving the quality of Stranger of Paradise: Final Fantasy Origins.</li>
<li>This bodes well for the future of its business effectively reskinning its in-house titles with popular outside IPs.</li>
<li>This makes us more interested in the name but we are still waiting for the shoe to drop on investment income.</li>
</ul>


Koei Tecmo appears to have made some strides in improving the quality of Stranger of Paradise: Final Fantasy Origins.
This bodes well for the future of its business effectively reskinning its in-house titles with popular outside IPs.
This makes us more interested in the name but we are still waiting for the shoe to drop on investment income.


Koei Tecmo – Some Nice Signs But Downside Risks Need To Be Priced In First

<ul>
<li>Koei Tecmo delivered strong results with revenue of ¥18.1bn and OP of ¥10.7bn comfortably beating consensus of ¥16.2bn and ¥5.7bn respectively. </li>
<li>OP guidance was raised from an absurdly conservative ¥24.5bn to a still conservative ¥31.5bn, below consensus at ¥33.6bn. </li>
<li>While these results look broadly positive we are concerned that the recent sell off may continue.</li>
</ul>


Koei Tecmo delivered strong results with revenue of ¥18.1bn and OP of ¥10.7bn comfortably beating consensus of ¥16.2bn and ¥5.7bn respectively. 
OP guidance was raised from an absurdly conservative ¥24.5bn to a still conservative ¥31.5bn, below consensus at ¥33.6bn. 
While these results look broadly positive we are concerned that the recent sell off may continue.


Koei Tecmo – Nice on the Surface But We Are Worried

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today the Osaka Supreme Court dismissed OK Corp's Permission Appeal regarding the EGM approving the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-super-market-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15519:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Super</a> merger with H2O subs Izumiya and Hankyu Oasis. That merger is Effective tomorrow.</li>
<li>OK Corp announced it would sell its shares in Kansai Super back to the company - as planned. </li>
<li>A disappointing ruling (especially given the TKS case) which will affect AGMs/EGMs going forward. And it means a soft share price and hard shareholder structure problem for Kansai Super near-term.</li>
</ul>


Today the Osaka Supreme Court dismissed OK Corp's Permission Appeal regarding the EGM approving the Kansai Super merger with H2O subs Izumiya and Hankyu Oasis. That merger is Effective tomorrow.
OK Corp announced it would sell its shares in Kansai Super back to the company - as planned. 
A disappointing ruling (especially given the TKS case) which will affect AGMs/EGMs going forward. And it means a soft share price and hard shareholder structure problem for Kansai Super near-term.


Kansai Super (9919) Merger OKed. OK Tender Going Nowhere. OK Going Home.

Japan

Koei Tecmo Holdings Co.,Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Koei Co., Ltd. and Tecmo Ltd. The Company develops and distributes video game software for personal computers and home video game consoles. The Company also operates other media business such as marketing of books and CDs and amusement facility operation.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP)

Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

Starting to see positive signals that suggest downside is limited from here. Still, we need to see reversals of YTD downtrends on $ACWI $ACWX $EFA...

Vermilion Research

Koei Tecmo – Potential For a Breakdown

Koei Tecmo had a relatively strong quarter beating at the OP line by 28.7% and could once again hit its MTP target in the first year, but...

Mio Kato

Koei Tecmo – Some Nice Signs But Downside Risks Need To Be Priced In First

Improving quality for Stranger of Paradise: Final Fantasy Origins bodes well for Koei Tecmo's future but we are still waiting for the shoe to drop...

Mio Kato

Koei Tecmo – Nice on the Surface But We Are Worried

Koei Tecmo delivered strong results with revenue of ¥18.1bn and OP of ¥10.7bn comfortably beating consensus. While these results look positive we...

Mio Kato

Kansai Super (9919) Merger OKed. OK Tender Going Nowhere. OK Going Home.

Kansai Super (9919)'s merger with H2O sub Izumiya and Hankyu Oasis will go through tomorrow, after the Supreme Court decided against OK Corp, who...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)