IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kadokawa-dwango-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4152:1" rel="noopener">Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP)</a> shares rose 16% after <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/sony-talks-buy-media-powerhouse-behind-elden-ring-sources-say-2024-11-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. </li>
<li>The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.</li>
<li>The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.</li>
</ul>



Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP) shares rose 16% after Reuters reported that Sony Corp (6758 JP) is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. 
The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.
The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.


Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.</li>
<li>Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.</li>
</ul>


Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.
Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.
Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.


Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> is Korea's leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shift-up-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:144015" rel="noopener">Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) is Korea's leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case. 
We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> is Korea's leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.    </li>
<li>Shift Up now focuses only on game development and has a policy of publishing games in cooperation with global partners such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The investment case rests on a stellar game development track record, several growth drivers, high profitability and cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) is Korea's leading game development studio. It is seeking to raise up to US$320 million.    
Shift Up now focuses only on game development and has a policy of publishing games in cooperation with global partners such as Tencent (700 HK) and Sony Corp (6758 JP). 
The investment case rests on a stellar game development track record, several growth drivers, high profitability and cash generation.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A variety of articles of recent from private media sources have suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teijin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5097:1" rel="noopener">Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)</a> has its 55% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infocom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8412:1" rel="noopener">Infocom Corp (4348 JP)</a> up for auction. </li>
<li>According to earlier articles, binding Second Round bids were due last week. According to an article out late last week, binding bids have been made, with some "around ¥250bn."</li>
<li>What that means for price may depend on what the "around ¥250bn" means. A brief exploration below. </li>
</ul>


A variety of articles of recent from private media sources have suggested that Teijin Ltd (3401 JP) has its 55% stake in Infocom Corp (4348 JP) up for auction. 
According to earlier articles, binding Second Round bids were due last week. According to an article out late last week, binding bids have been made, with some "around ¥250bn."
What that means for price may depend on what the "around ¥250bn" means. A brief exploration below. 


Infocom (4348 JP) - The Meaning of 'Binding Bids' and '¥250bn'

Japan

Koei Tecmo Holdings Co.,Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Koei Co., Ltd. and Tecmo Ltd. The Company develops and distributes video game software for personal computers and home video game consoles. The Company also operates other media business such as marketing of books and CDs and amusement facility operation.

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Koei Tecmo Holdings (3635 JP)

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights

We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would...

Arun George

Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case

The investment case rests on a stellar game development track record, several growth drivers, high profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

Infocom (4348 JP) - The Meaning of 'Binding Bids' and '¥250bn'

Infocom has run 50% in a month since we learned Sony might bid against PE firms to take the co private. If one looks at this as SOTP, it's...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

​Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Shift Up IPO: Valuation Insights

We examine the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that Shift Up is attractively valued in the IPO price range. We would...

Arun George

Shift Up IPO: The Investment Case

The investment case rests on a stellar game development track record, several growth drivers, high profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

Infocom (4348 JP) - The Meaning of 'Binding Bids' and '¥250bn'

Infocom has run 50% in a month since we learned Sony might bid against PE firms to take the co private. If one looks at this as SOTP, it's...

Travis Lundy

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.