New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>It hasn't been a great couple of months for the property sector. After being hit with political promises of higher taxes in August, rising interest rates saw the sector sell off in September.</li><li>With the NZ 10 year Government bond yield now c.5.5%, sector valuation metrics, which already looked full versus history, have come sharply back into focus.</li><li>Persistently high interest rates remain a headwind for the sector, particularly given higher taxes and interest costs are likely to see dividends cut (we forecast -3% on average by FY26). </li></ul>

It hasn't been a great couple of months for the property sector. After being hit with political promises of higher taxes in August, rising interest rates saw the sector sell off in September.With the NZ 10 year Government bond yield now c.5.5%, sector valuation metrics, which already looked full versus history, have come sharply back into focus.Persistently high interest rates remain a headwind for the sector, particularly given higher taxes and interest costs are likely to see dividends cut (we forecast -3% on average by FY26). 

Real Estate Reflections - Here We Go Again?

<ul><li>After seven months of outperforming the broader NZ market, the listed property sector experienced a sharp correction in August.</li><li>This was driven by both National and Labour proposing to remove structure depreciation for commercial landlords to part fund their respective election promises.</li><li>Given the depreciations changes are proposed by both major political parties, we have lowered our forecasts to reflect the high likelihood that the sector will be paying more tax from 1 April 2024. </li></ul>

After seven months of outperforming the broader NZ market, the listed property sector experienced a sharp correction in August.This was driven by both National and Labour proposing to remove structure depreciation for commercial landlords to part fund their respective election promises.Given the depreciations changes are proposed by both major political parties, we have lowered our forecasts to reflect the high likelihood that the sector will be paying more tax from 1 April 2024. 

Real Estate Reflections - Tax Man Coming for Commercial

<ul><li>Strong month for the property sector: The NZ LPV sector had a strong June, rising +3.7% and outperforming the NZX 50 which was up +0.8%. </li><li>A flurry of annual shareholder meetings: There were a number of annual shareholder meetings in June where FY24 distribution guidance was reiterated.</li><li>Mixed valuation signals: The property sector continues to look attractive relative to other yield stocks but fully priced vs. bond yields.</li></ul>

Strong month for the property sector: The NZ LPV sector had a strong June, rising +3.7% and outperforming the NZX 50 which was up +0.8%. A flurry of annual shareholder meetings: There were a number of annual shareholder meetings in June where FY24 distribution guidance was reiterated.Mixed valuation signals: The property sector continues to look attractive relative to other yield stocks but fully priced vs. bond yields.

Real Estate Reflections: Property Jumps Ahead of the Pack

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Kiwi Property (KPG) have announced the conditional sale of its Aurora Centre office asset in Wellington for NZ$143m.</li><li>FY23 reported gearing was 35.0% and at the top end of management's target range of 25%–35% but below its lowest covenant of 45%.</li><li>While KPG offers an attractive gross yield it remains in the early stages of a capital hungry strategic transformation refocussing its portfolio on its larger upper North Island assets, has a flat dividend growth outlook, and the outlook for retail spend is moderating. NEUTRAL.</li></ul>

Kiwi Property (KPG) have announced the conditional sale of its Aurora Centre office asset in Wellington for NZ$143m.FY23 reported gearing was 35.0% and at the top end of management's target range of 25%–35% but below its lowest covenant of 45%.While KPG offers an attractive gross yield it remains in the early stages of a capital hungry strategic transformation refocussing its portfolio on its larger upper North Island assets, has a flat dividend growth outlook, and the outlook for retail spend is moderating. NEUTRAL.

<ul><li>Property sector softer through reporting season: The NZ LPV sector was down -0.7% in May, outperforming the NZX50 which was down -1.7%.</li><li>Dust settles on May reporting season: Six property companies reported full year results in May. The results were broadly in line with our expectations as solid tenant demand continues to drive strong operational outcomes.</li><li>Sector valuation remains mixed: The property sector continues to look attractive relative to other yield stocks but still remains above its long-run valuation metrics relative to bond yields.</li></ul>

Property sector softer through reporting season: The NZ LPV sector was down -0.7% in May, outperforming the NZX50 which was down -1.7%.Dust settles on May reporting season: Six property companies reported full year results in May. The results were broadly in line with our expectations as solid tenant demand continues to drive strong operational outcomes.Sector valuation remains mixed: The property sector continues to look attractive relative to other yield stocks but still remains above its long-run valuation metrics relative to bond yields.

Real Estate Reflections: Reporting on Property

New Zealand

Vital Healthcare Property Trust is a property trust that invests in and manages healthcare facilities in New Zealand and Australia.

Property for Industry Limited is a property company that invests in New Zealand industrial properties. The Company's property portfolio includes sites in Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch.

Argosy Property Limited invests in and manages retail, commercial and industrial properties in New Zealand.

Precinct Properties New Zealand Ltd. invests in manages and leases commercial office properties. The Company invests in properties in Auckland and Wellington.

Stride Stapled Group operates as a real estate investment company. The Company invests in a portfolio of places with enduring demand, as well as acquires retail properties. Stride Stapled conducts business in New Zealand.

Investore Property Limited operates as a real estate investment company. The Company invests in retail property assets. Investore Property also provides leasing services. Investore Property serves clients in New Zealand.

Asset Plus Limited carries on the business of a property company that invests in and manages commercial, industrial and retail properties. The Company's investment property portfolio consists of retail, commercial, and industrial properties located in New Zealand.

Goodman Property Trust is a property trust that invests in, manages and develope portfolio of diversified property assets in Auckland. The Trust's portfolio comprises of office, industrial and retail properties.

CDL Investments New Zealand Limited operates as a property investment and development company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provide land-based investment and development, management and the provision of property services. CDL Investments New Zealand serves clients in New Zealand.

AIMS APAC REIT is a real estate investment trust. The Trust's principal investment objective is owning and investing in a diversified portfolio of income-producing industrial real estate assets throughout Asia Pacific, including warehousing and logistics, manufacturing, business parks and hi-tech spaces.

CDL Hospitality Trusts is a stapled group compromising H-REIT and HBT. H-REIT is a real estate investment trust that invest in a portfolio of income-producing properties and HBT is a business trust.

Ichigo Office REIT Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust (J-REIT). The Company mainly invests in office buildings in major cities in Japan. The REIT merged with FC Residential Investment Corporation in 2005.

Ichigo Office REIT Investment Corporation (8975 JP)

Ichigo Office REIT Investment Corporation

CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT is a closed-end fund incorporated in Thailand. The Fund invests in shopping complex projects: Central Plaza Rama II, Central Plaza Ratchada-Rama II, & Central Plaza Pinklao.

CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT (CPNREIT TB)

Tesco Lotus Retail Growth Freehold & Leasehold Property Fund is a closed-end fund incorporated in Thailand. The Fund's objective is to achieve good returns. The Fund invests in freehold & leasehold of 17 shopping malls anchored by a Tesco Lotus hypermarket in cities including Bangkok and tourist destinations such as Krabi.

Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. is a real estate company focusing on owning, operating, and acquiring office properties.  The Company focuses on opportunities in Northern and Southern California.

Starhill Global REIT is a real estate investment trust.  The trust invests in retail and office buildings in Singapore and overseas.

Urstadt Biddle Properties Inc is a real estate investment trust. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, ownership, and management of commercial real estate, primarily neighborhood and community shopping centers in the northeastern United States. Urstadt also owns office and retail buildings and industrial properties.

Saul Centers, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in community and neighborhood shopping centers that are owned and operated by the Saul Organization. The Saul Organization is an operator and owner of shopping centers in the Washington-Baltimore area.

WHA Premium Growth Freehold & Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust.

WHA Premium Growth Freehold & Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (WHART TB)

WHA Premium Growth Freehold & Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust

Kiwi Property Group Ltd is a property trust that invests in, manages and develops a portfolio of diversified properties throughout New Zealand. The Trust's properties include office, retail and industrial properties.

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Kiwi Property (KPG NZ)

Real Estate Reflections - Here We Go Again?

It hasn't been a great couple of months for the property sector. After being hit with political promises of higher taxes in August, rising interest...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections - Tax Man Coming for Commercial

After seven months of outperforming the broader NZ market, the listed property sector experienced a sharp correction in August.

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: Property Jumps Ahead of the Pack

June was a strong month for the property sector despite a slight lift in long bond yields - NZ-listed property vehicles (LPVs) have now...

Forsyth Barr

Kiwi Property: Sale of Aurora Centre

Kiwi Property (KPG) have announced the conditional sale of its Aurora Centre office asset in Wellington for NZ$143m; In our view the Aurora Centre...

Forsyth Barr

Real Estate Reflections: Reporting on Property

The results of listed property vehicles (LPVs) that reported in May was largely in line with expectations; Strong tenant demand underpinned strong...

Forsyth Barr

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