Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It has been four months since JIP officially announced their intention to launch a Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> by end-July. 7 weeks since Toshiba's Board supported it.</li>
<li>There's been no material public griping. Peers are sharply higher. There have been news stories suggesting a Western Digital/Kioxia deal is close. That's now extended. The Toshiba deal possibly too. </li>
<li>But huge outperformance by peers, and possible clarity from Kioxia deal terms are unlikely to move the Toshiba Board to demand more. </li>
</ul>


It has been four months since JIP officially announced their intention to launch a Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) by end-July. 7 weeks since Toshiba's Board supported it.
There's been no material public griping. Peers are sharply higher. There have been news stories suggesting a Western Digital/Kioxia deal is close. That's now extended. The Toshiba deal possibly too. 
But huge outperformance by peers, and possible clarity from Kioxia deal terms are unlikely to move the Toshiba Board to demand more. 


Toshiba (6502) Tender - Certainly Cheaper. Maybe Delayed, But Toshiba Fatigue Is Strong

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?</li>
<li>Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs</li>
<li>DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.</li>
</ul>


Chip revenues have been up for two months in a row.  Could this be the start of a trend?
Commodity prices indicate that the "Collapse" phase of a price downturn has ended, and that prices will now follow costs
DRAM and NAND makers should remain unprofitable until mid 2024, although their revenues can begin to steadily rise.  Other chip makers will do better.


<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 operating profits of 0.64 trillion won, the lowest since Q1'09</li>
<li>Strong sales of flagship S23 smartphones helped avert an otherwise inevitable overall group operating loss.  </li>
<li>Outlook for the current quarter is for more of the same, albeit the bottom line will depend on the extent (if any) of memory inventory write-downs. </li>
</ul>


Q1’23 operating profits of 0.64 trillion won, the lowest since Q1'09
Strong sales of flagship S23 smartphones helped avert an otherwise inevitable overall group operating loss.  
Outlook for the current quarter is for more of the same, albeit the bottom line will depend on the extent (if any) of memory inventory write-downs. 


Samsung. When Your Cash Cow Turns Into Your Achilles Heel.

<ul>
<li>The past three quarters have seen memory revenues collapse by 60%</li>
<li>DRAM and NAND prices have reach cost, and the business should remain profitless for an indefinite time</li>
<li>Management appears to have no idea when this situation will end</li>
</ul>


The past three quarters have seen memory revenues collapse by 60%
DRAM and NAND prices have reach cost, and the business should remain profitless for an indefinite time
Management appears to have no idea when this situation will end


Japan

Kioxia Holdings Corporation manufactures semiconductor memory products. The Company develops, produces, and sells flash memory cards, solid state drives, secure digital memory cards, and other products. Kioxia Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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Kioxia Holdings (6600 JP)

Toshiba (6502) Tender - Certainly Cheaper. Maybe Delayed, But Toshiba Fatigue Is Strong

Toshiba has sharply underperformed a broad peer basket since March. Too cheap has become cheaper. A Kioxia valuation input may arrive, but I expect...

Travis Lundy

Encouraging Signs in Recent Semi Stats

The chip market is giving signs of a recovery which will see rising revenues but should remain unprofitable for commodity players until mid-2024. ...

Jim Handy

Where Are We in the Semiconductor Cycle?

Will the semiconductor market turn around? Revenues are likely to regain modest growth in the fourth quarter, but profits shouldn't return until...

Jim Handy

Samsung. When Your Cash Cow Turns Into Your Achilles Heel.

Q1’23 operating profits of 0.64 trillion won, the lowest since Q1'09. Strong S23 sales saved the day. Outlook is for more of the same, albeit the...

William Keating

Memory Downturn: No End in Sight

Semiconductor memories have collapsed - when will they turn around? After a revenue drop of 60%, memory maker management still have no concrete...

Jim Handy

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