Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

At its Monetary Policy Meeting that concluded on 19 March, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that they would purchase ETFs and J-REIT as necessary with upper limits of about 12 trillion yen and about 180 billion yen respectively. While the upper limits were originally set as a temporary measure in response to the impact of COVID-19, the Bank will maintain them even after COVID-19 subsides.The big change was the announcement that the BOJ would only purchase ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a>. This means no more flows to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.From the increase in ETF AUM over calendar year 2020, we estimate that around 88% of the BOJ buying went into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> ETFs, with smaller amounts going into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.While the impact of BOJ only buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> linked ETFs is not material for single stocks in ADV terms, there could be a bigger impact on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> constituents if other NKY ETF holders redeem their units and sell the underlying shares.The NT ratio (NKY/TPX) had started to move lower over the last 15 trading days due to the shift from growth to value stocks. The BOJ announcement could take the ratio lower in the short term on a change in sentiment and short term flows due to repositioning of portfolios.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-chemical-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4102:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Chemical Industries (4021 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comsys-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20548:1" rel="noopener">Comsys Holdings (1721 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/konami-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13236:1" rel="noopener">Konami Holdings (9766 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kikkoman-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1" rel="noopener">Kikkoman Corp (2801 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> will be among the most negatively affected stocks, but the impact is quite small.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> stocks (that will have passive BOJ inflows of at least US$5m) that will have the largest impact in terms of ADV to trade are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13058:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (9042 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kintetsu-group-holdings-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18507:1" rel="noopener">Kintetsu Group Holdings Co L (9041 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a>.

At its Monetary Policy Meeting that concluded on 19 March, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that they would purchase ETFs and J-REIT as necessary with upper limits of about 12 trillion yen and about 180 billion yen respectively. While the upper limits were originally set as a temporary measure in response to the impact of COVID-19, the Bank will maintain them even after COVID-19 subsides.The big change was the announcement that the BOJ would only purchase ETFs tracking the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX). This means no more flows to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.From the increase in ETF AUM over calendar year 2020, we estimate that around 88% of the BOJ buying went into Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) ETFs, with smaller amounts going into the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs.While the impact of BOJ only buying Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) linked ETFs is not material for single stocks in ADV terms, there could be a bigger impact on the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) constituents if other NKY ETF holders redeem their units and sell the underlying shares.The NT ratio (NKY/TPX) had started to move lower over the last 15 trading days due to the shift from growth to value stocks. The BOJ announcement could take the ratio lower in the short term on a change in sentiment and short term flows due to repositioning of portfolios.Nissan Chemical Industries (4021 JP), Comsys Holdings (1721 JP), Konami Holdings (9766 JP), Kikkoman Corp (2801 JP) and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will be among the most negatively affected stocks, but the impact is quite small.Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) stocks (that will have passive BOJ inflows of at least US$5m) that will have the largest impact in terms of ADV to trade are Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (9042 JP), Kintetsu Group Holdings Co L (9041 JP), Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP), Bank Of Kyoto (8369 JP) and Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP). 

BOJ Buying to Focus on TOPIX ETFs: Big Headline, Smaller Impact

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Kintetsu Department Store / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kintetsu-department-store-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9040:1" rel="noopener">Kintetsu Department Store (8244 JP)</a> watched as a seemingly inevitable decline hit its business in the five years to 2018. The railway-backed retailer has realised that there is still plenty of traffic going through its stations and that the problem was the wrong kind of retail offer. To fix this, rather than just call in tenants, Kintetsu became an active franchisee in an experiment that is clearly working. While Kintetsu's share price reflects the weak department store sector, within three years it won't be a department store at all.

Kintetsu Department Store (8244 JP) watched as a seemingly inevitable decline hit its business in the five years to 2018. The railway-backed retailer has realised that there is still plenty of traffic going through its stations and that the problem was the wrong kind of retail offer. To fix this, rather than just call in tenants, Kintetsu became an active franchisee in an experiment that is clearly working. While Kintetsu's share price reflects the weak department store sector, within three years it won't be a department store at all.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>- have been excluded from this analysis.

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/595/original/2020-03-25_07-40-02.png?1585089632" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124595"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>EARLY WARNINGS - This Insight is the first is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues and profits from the unfolding Covid-19 recession.  Most Japanese companies provide forecasts for the current fiscal year, which are usually updated together with their quarterly earnings announcements. 'Irregular' updates have to be made where there substantial deviations from the previously released forecasts. Unsurprisingly, these are now coming thick and fast. These updates will cover the changes announced in the previous 24 hours with some brief commentary and charts fro both companies and their 'Peer Groups'.  We hope this provides some grounding in the new reality we are living in.

Source • Japan AnalyticsEARLY WARNINGS - This Insight is the first is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues and profits from the unfolding Covid-19 recession.  Most Japanese companies provide forecasts for the current fiscal year, which are usually updated together with their quarterly earnings announcements. 'Irregular' updates have to be made where there substantial deviations from the previously released forecasts. Unsurprisingly, these are now coming thick and fast. These updates will cover the changes announced in the previous 24 hours with some brief commentary and charts fro both companies and their 'Peer Groups'.  We hope this provides some grounding in the new reality we are living in. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions Early Warning System 24th March

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<blockquote>
Enhancement of Monetary Easing in Light of the Impact of the Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Global financial and capital markets have been unstable, with growing uncertainties over the global economy due mainly to the impact of the outbreak of COVID-19. Under the circumstances, Japan's economic activity has been weak recently (see Attachment). In addition, financial conditions have become less accommodative, as seen partly in corporate financing such as the financial positions of small and medium-sized firms.
Given these developments, the Bank of Japan judged it appropriate to enhance monetary easing through (1) the further ample supply of funds by conducting various operations including purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and the U.S. dollar funds-supplying operations, (2) measures to facilitate corporate financing including the introduction of a new operation, and (3) active purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs). The Bank will take these measures with a view to doing its utmost to ensure smooth corporate financing and maintaining stability in financial markets, thereby preventing firms' and households' sentiment from deteriorating.
</blockquote>To further those goals, the BOJ decided to...<ol>
<li>
Provide ample yen funds through further JGB buying, and through other measures described in #2-3. As for U.S. dollar liquidity, coordinated with the Bank of Canada (BOC), the Bank of England (BOE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), regarding the U.S. dollar funds-supplying operations, the Bank made public today to lower the loan rate by 0.25 percent and offer U.S. dollars weekly 2 with an 84-day maturity, in addition to the 1-week maturity operations currently offered. </li>
<li>
Introduction of the Special Funds-Supplying Operations to Facilitate Corporate Financing regarding the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).  <ol>
<li>The Bank decided to provide loans against corporate debt (of about 8 trillion yen as of end-February 2020) as collateral at the interest rate of 0 percent with maturity up to one year. Twice as much as the amount outstanding of the loans will be included in the Macro Add-on Balances in current accounts held by financial institutions at the Bank. This operation will be conducted until the end of September 2020.</li>
<li>Increase in purchases of CP and corporate bonds The Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, to increase the upper limit to purchase CP and corporate bonds by 2 trillion yen in total and conduct purchases with the upper limit of their amounts outstanding of about 3.2 trillion yen and about 4.2 trillion yen, respectively. The additional purchases will continue until the end of September 2020</li>
</ol>
</li>
<li>
Do more Active ETF and JREIT Buying: The Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, to actively purchase ETFs and J-REITs for the time being so that their amounts outstanding will increase at annual paces with the upper limit of about 12 trillion yen and about 180 billion yen, respectively.</li>
</ol>After the BOJ announced this, the market fell. Some of this increase was expected because of various local media commentary by informed sources, suggesting the BOJ was considering measures like this. The reason the market fell was likely profit-taking - a sell-the-news phenomenon.The other possible reason for selling was disappointment that the new level of ETF buying was not made permanent.Those who are "disappointed" by this are mistaken.The BOJ will buy at that increased rate as long as it needs to supply funds to the market. If the market doesn't go up, they will likely keep on buying "for the time being." If the market goes up, then the program has been a success. Understanding the practical impacts is important. That's discussed below.


Enhancement of Monetary Easing in Light of the Impact of the Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Global financial and capital markets have been unstable, with growing uncertainties over the global economy due mainly to the impact of the outbreak of COVID-19. Under the circumstances, Japan's economic activity has been weak recently (see Attachment). In addition, financial conditions have become less accommodative, as seen partly in corporate financing such as the financial positions of small and medium-sized firms.
Given these developments, the Bank of Japan judged it appropriate to enhance monetary easing through (1) the further ample supply of funds by conducting various operations including purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and the U.S. dollar funds-supplying operations, (2) measures to facilitate corporate financing including the introduction of a new operation, and (3) active purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs). The Bank will take these measures with a view to doing its utmost to ensure smooth corporate financing and maintaining stability in financial markets, thereby preventing firms' and households' sentiment from deteriorating.
To further those goals, the BOJ decided to...

Provide ample yen funds through further JGB buying, and through other measures described in #2-3. As for U.S. dollar liquidity, coordinated with the Bank of Canada (BOC), the Bank of England (BOE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), regarding the U.S. dollar funds-supplying operations, the Bank made public today to lower the loan rate by 0.25 percent and offer U.S. dollars weekly 2 with an 84-day maturity, in addition to the 1-week maturity operations currently offered. 

Introduction of the Special Funds-Supplying Operations to Facilitate Corporate Financing regarding the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).  
The Bank decided to provide loans against corporate debt (of about 8 trillion yen as of end-February 2020) as collateral at the interest rate of 0 percent with maturity up to one year. Twice as much as the amount outstanding of the loans will be included in the Macro Add-on Balances in current accounts held by financial institutions at the Bank. This operation will be conducted until the end of September 2020.
Increase in purchases of CP and corporate bonds The Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, to increase the upper limit to purchase CP and corporate bonds by 2 trillion yen in total and conduct purchases with the upper limit of their amounts outstanding of about 3.2 trillion yen and about 4.2 trillion yen, respectively. The additional purchases will continue until the end of September 2020



Do more Active ETF and JREIT Buying: The Bank decided, by a unanimous vote, to actively purchase ETFs and J-REITs for the time being so that their amounts outstanding will increase at annual paces with the upper limit of about 12 trillion yen and about 180 billion yen, respectively.
After the BOJ announced this, the market fell. Some of this increase was expected because of various local media commentary by informed sources, suggesting the BOJ was considering measures like this. The reason the market fell was likely profit-taking - a sell-the-news phenomenon.The other possible reason for selling was disappointment that the new level of ETF buying was not made permanent.Those who are "disappointed" by this are mistaken.The BOJ will buy at that increased rate as long as it needs to supply funds to the market. If the market doesn't go up, they will likely keep on buying "for the time being." If the market goes up, then the program has been a success. Understanding the practical impacts is important. That's discussed below.

Japan

Kintetsu Group Holdings provides passenger rail, bus, taxi, and freight truck transportation services in the Kinki region including Osaka, Kyoto, and Nara prefectures.  The Company also offers ground, air, and marine logistics services and operates department stores and real estate business.

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Kintetsu Group Holdings Co L (9041 JP)

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Kintetsu looks like another retailer in a failing sector but it is owned by one of the busiest railway operators in the country with great retail...

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JAPAN DELTA I - The BOJ Ups ETF Buying

Enhancement of Monetary Easing in Light of the Impact of the Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Global financial and capital markets...

Travis Lundy

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