Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 209bn (US$6.5bn).</li>
<li>There could be 14 changes for the ETF in June with an estimated one-way turnover of around 40% and a round-trip trade of around US$5bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and there could be more to go heading into announcement and implementation.</li>
</ul>


The TIP Taiwan Select High Dividend ETF (00919 TW) tracks the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index and has an AUM of TWD 209bn (US$6.5bn).
There could be 14 changes for the ETF in June with an estimated one-way turnover of around 40% and a round-trip trade of around US$5bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and there could be more to go heading into announcement and implementation.


TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance Preview: AUM Jump & HUGE Trade

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Today is the base date for the June 2024 index review. We expect five changes and some of these names are different from our previous set of expected ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way flow to be around US$1.3bn which translates to a turnover of around 20%.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.
Today is the base date for the June 2024 index review. We expect five changes and some of these names are different from our previous set of expected ADDs/DELs.
We estimate one-way flow to be around US$1.3bn which translates to a turnover of around 20%.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: Five Changes Likely; US$1.3bn One-Way

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, my index change expectations and flow expectations have changed significantly.</li>
<li>My latest estimate for one-way flow in June 2024 is US$1.06bn (down from US$1.22bn a month ago).</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.
Since my last insight, my index change expectations and flow expectations have changed significantly.
My latest estimate for one-way flow in June 2024 is US$1.06bn (down from US$1.22bn a month ago).


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Time to Update

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's flow expectations for the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Based on current data, I expect there to be one DEL for the TDIV index in March. I also expect the AUM assumption to change.</li>
<li>According to my calculations, these changes could collectively trigger index flows of ~US$150mn one-way resulting in some index members expected to have multiple days of volume to trade.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's flow expectations for the March 2024 index rebal event.
Based on current data, I expect there to be one DEL for the TDIV index in March. I also expect the AUM assumption to change.
According to my calculations, these changes could collectively trigger index flows of ~US$150mn one-way resulting in some index members expected to have multiple days of volume to trade.


Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Mar 24: Potential DEL and AUM Assumption Change to Trigger Index Flows

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fair value gains are the single most important driver of good net profit at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-s-town-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4136:1" rel="noopener">King's Town Bank (2809 TT)</a> in the most recent quarter.</li>
<li>Monthly revenue figures show strong 179% growth YoY in September, which we can see before any 3Q23 release.</li>
<li>Credit costs rose from 43bps to 83bps of loans from 1Q23 to 2Q23, which is a significant increase, may be more reflective of underlying operations.</li>
</ul>


Fair value gains are the single most important driver of good net profit at King's Town Bank (2809 TT) in the most recent quarter.
Monthly revenue figures show strong 179% growth YoY in September, which we can see before any 3Q23 release.
Credit costs rose from 43bps to 83bps of loans from 1Q23 to 2Q23, which is a significant increase, may be more reflective of underlying operations.


King's Town Bank - Net Profit +NTD697m Vs Fair Value Gains +NTD2,004m, Core Items All Worsening

Taiwan

King's Town Bank accepts deposits and offers various kinds of loans. The Bank provides notes and bills discounting, collecting, guarantee, remittance, securities brokerage and financing, letter of credit, foreign exchange, and traveler checks services.

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King's Town Bank (2809 TT)

TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index Rebalance Preview: AUM Jump & HUGE Trade

There could be 14 changes for the TIP Customized Taiwan Select High Dividend Index in June with an estimated 1-way turnover of around 40% and an...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: Five Changes Likely; US$1.3bn One-Way

Based on current estimates, there could be five inflow names and six outflow names with more than five days of volume to trade during the June 2024...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Time to Update

I expect the Top 5 inflow names to outperform the Top 5 outflow names over the next few weeks. The base date for the June 2024 review is 27th May...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Mar 24: Potential DEL and AUM Assumption Change to Trigger Index Flows

Bizlink Holding (3665 TT), Farglory Land Development (5522 TT), TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT), and King's Town Bank (2809 TT) are estimated to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

King's Town Bank - Net Profit +NTD697m Vs Fair Value Gains +NTD2,004m, Core Items All Worsening

King's Town Bank is seeing earnings driven only by Fair Value Gains. Its net interest income, net fee income, operating costs, are worsening....

Daniel Tabbush

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