Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>Currently, we expect four ADDs and four DELs. There are roughly two more months left in the reference period.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.
Currently, we expect four ADDs and four DELs. There are roughly two more months left in the reference period.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Four Changes Likely; Capping to Be Introduced

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> later this month following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.</li>
</ul>



VGI PCL (VGI TB) could be added to the SET50 INDEX later this month following the Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) / Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) merger.
Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.
Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in VGI PCL (VGI TB) while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 in the run up to the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>The GULF-INTUCH M&amp;A event could trigger an intra-review change within the next few weeks. Then there could be more regular index changes in June 2025.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 in the run up to the index rebal event in June 2025.
The GULF-INTUCH M&amp;A event could trigger an intra-review change within the next few weeks. Then there could be more regular index changes in June 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>Currently, we see three expected changes. However, since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 during the index rebal event in June 2025.
Currently, we see three expected changes. However, since the reference period is yet to start, the rankings can fluctuate significantly before the base date.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 25: Delta Is Finally Safe; Three Changes Possible

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures</li>
<li>With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.</li>
<li>ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24</li>
</ul>


KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures
With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.
ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24


KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

Thailand

Kiatnakin Bank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including commercial, developmental, consumer, hire-purchase, and mortgage financing to its customers in Thailand. The Company also provides securities brokerage and investment advisory services.

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Kiatnakin Bank (KKP TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: Four Changes Likely; Capping to Be Introduced

There could be 4x ADV to buy in Thanachart (TCAP TB) and we see this as a high-conviction ADD. Some of the other ADDs/DELs are closer to the border...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

VGI could be added to the index later this month following the GULF/INTUCH merger. Then there could be 3/4 more changes in June. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later

VGI PCL (VGI TB) and Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB) are the two names leading the race to become the intra-review SET50 ADD for the GULF-INTUCH...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 25: Delta Is Finally Safe; Three Changes Possible

There are 3 expected ADDs/DELs and all names have more than 1x ADV excess volume expected from the index Inclusion/Exclusion. Separately, the Gulf...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

KTC - Stresses in Thailand Mass Market Credit Cards, Clear in BOT Debt Relief Measures

KTC reveals granular detail for many Bank of Thailand relief measures on consumer debt, suggesting that credit metrics are very weak, and this is...

Daniel Tabbush

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