Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global equities (ACWI) and the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 are attempting to break out for the fourth time this year from what has seemed like a never-ending horizontal consolidation period. At some point this consolidation will come to an end, however the weight of the evidence is not yet telling us “this time is different.” Despite some recent encouraging and positive developments from areas such as retail (XRT), EM (EEM), and European Banks (EUFN), we remain in wait-and-see mode as the market approaches resistance. In today's report we detail why we remain hesitant to call this a bull market along with what it would take to improve our outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials: Retailers, Off-Price, Banks, Super-Regional, Construction Materials/Products, and Forest Products, Diversified.

Global equities (ACWI) and the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 are attempting to break out for the fourth time this year from what has seemed like a never-ending horizontal consolidation period. At some point this consolidation will come to an end, however the weight of the evidence is not yet telling us “this time is different.” Despite some recent encouraging and positive developments from areas such as retail (XRT), EM (EEM), and European Banks (EUFN), we remain in wait-and-see mode as the market approaches resistance. In today's report we detail why we remain hesitant to call this a bull market along with what it would take to improve our outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials: Retailers, Off-Price, Banks, Super-Regional, Construction Materials/Products, and Forest Products, Diversified.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Is Fourth Time a Charm?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is becoming clearer now that the idea of rising rates being driven by healthy sustained economic growth is false. The esteemed UCLA Anderson School of Business just released its US real GDP growth forecasts, which move from 3% this year, to 2% next year and 1% in 2020. The pace of deceleration is significant. But what matters more is when we understand this within the context of banks' significant new credit over the past eight years, since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The IMF is also touting a similar story of decelerating GDP growth, and it is only a matter of time before this becomes mainstream – and real. And where rates hardly rose in nominal terms since late 2016, rate cuts are hardly going to help this time around.  The outcome should be significant defaults at US banks, higher credit costs, and far worse income.

It is becoming clearer now that the idea of rising rates being driven by healthy sustained economic growth is false. The esteemed UCLA Anderson School of Business just released its US real GDP growth forecasts, which move from 3% this year, to 2% next year and 1% in 2020. The pace of deceleration is significant. But what matters more is when we understand this within the context of banks' significant new credit over the past eight years, since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The IMF is also touting a similar story of decelerating GDP growth, and it is only a matter of time before this becomes mainstream – and real. And where rates hardly rose in nominal terms since late 2016, rate cuts are hardly going to help this time around.  The outcome should be significant defaults at US banks, higher credit costs, and far worse income. 

Today's key points:<ul>
<li>Property &amp; Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts.</li>
<li>Airlines are staging price and SR reversals to the upside and/or are breaking out.</li>
<li>Railroad related names are breaking out.</li>
<li>We have been bearish on the Semiconductor and Suppliers industry since February; however we are seeing some near term reversals at support levels.</li>
</ul>Highlighted charts: SUP, CMG, LOCO, MCS, EXPE, AMZN, WBA, K, NR, NOV, SLCA, BHGE, OIS, HLX, JPM, WFC, KEY, AXP, AFL, TMK, HSIC, ZBH, OMCL, ANTM, LLY, PFE, AGN, B, WM, ESND, ECHO, and SKYW.

Today's key points:
Property &amp; Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts.
Airlines are staging price and SR reversals to the upside and/or are breaking out.
Railroad related names are breaking out.
We have been bearish on the Semiconductor and Suppliers industry since February; however we are seeing some near term reversals at support levels.
Highlighted charts: SUP, CMG, LOCO, MCS, EXPE, AMZN, WBA, K, NR, NOV, SLCA, BHGE, OIS, HLX, JPM, WFC, KEY, AXP, AFL, TMK, HSIC, ZBH, OMCL, ANTM, LLY, PFE, AGN, B, WM, ESND, ECHO, and SKYW.

U.S. Vital Signs - Actionable Charts of the Day

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance art.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">As the lack of policy coherence or even consistency becomes painfully clear, investors risk a degree of buyer’s remorse, reflected in the stalling USD, financials etc. rallies.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">
Globally, the macro and inflation data surprise indices have spiked further YTD - the turnaround in the Eurozone is the most impressive and least expected by the consensus or…</li>
</ul>


Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance art.
As the lack of policy coherence or even consistency becomes painfully clear, investors risk a degree of buyer’s remorse, reflected in the stalling USD, financials etc. rallies.

Globally, the macro and inflation data surprise indices have spiked further YTD - the turnaround in the Eurozone is the most impressive and least expected by the consensus or…


'America First' Agenda Remains Contradictory, Vietnam Trip Notes…

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The US economy is expected to get a boost in 2017 through increased infrastructure spending and a lowering of corporate tax rates with the election of Donald Trump as the next US President</li><li>The Federal Reserve has signalled its intent to resume a gradual pace of rate increases going forward.</li><li>The dollar has strengthened with an expectation of higher fiscal impulse through government spending and tax cuts, the Fed is expected to continue tightening with higher growth and inflation expectations.</li></ul>

The US economy is expected to get a boost in 2017 through increased infrastructure spending and a lowering of corporate tax rates with the election of Donald Trump as the next US PresidentThe Federal Reserve has signalled its intent to resume a gradual pace of rate increases going forward.The dollar has strengthened with an expectation of higher fiscal impulse through government spending and tax cuts, the Fed is expected to continue tightening with higher growth and inflation expectations.

United States

KeyCorp is a financial services holding company.  The Company provides a wide range of retail and commercial banking, commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance and investment banking products and services to individual, corporate and institutional clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Keycorp (KEY US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Is Fourth Time a Charm?

Global equities (ACWI) and the equal-weighted S&P 500 are attempting to break out for the fourth time this year from what has seemed like a...

Vermilion Research

US Banks – Brace, Brace

It is becoming clearer now that the idea of rising rates being driven by healthy sustained economic growth is false. The esteemed UCLA Anderson...

Daniel Tabbush

U.S. Vital Signs - Actionable Charts of the Day

Today's key points: Property & Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts. Airlines are staging price and SR...

Vermilion Research

'America First' Agenda Remains Contradictory, Vietnam Trip Notes…

Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance...

Sean Maher

Marketnomix Insights : United States

The US economy is expected to get a boost in 2017 through increased infrastructure spending and a lowering of corporate tax rates with the...

Rajan Govil

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)