IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japan Catalyst’s <a href="https://www.japancatalyst.com/pdf/JCI_TAISHO_20231201_eng.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> supports the idea of a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.</li>
<li>The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.</li>
<li>While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
</ul>


Japan Catalyst’s press release supports the idea of a Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.
The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.
While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Japan Catalyst Fund is a relatively young effort in the Japan "engagement activism" space, having been founded by Monex Group in September 2019. Total assets remain apparently small.</li>
<li>Championed by Monex Group founder Oki Matsumoto, despite small AUM, the fund has decent access. As of end-October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdings (4581 JP)</a> was #5 and 5.26%. Now it's #2.</li>
<li>Friday, they released a statement about the MBO. It isn't a barn-burner, but the stock has traded through terms since announcement at a too-low price. And nobody else has commented.</li>
</ul>


Japan Catalyst Fund is a relatively young effort in the Japan "engagement activism" space, having been founded by Monex Group in September 2019. Total assets remain apparently small.
Championed by Monex Group founder Oki Matsumoto, despite small AUM, the fund has decent access. As of end-October, Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdings (4581 JP) was #5 and 5.26%. Now it's #2.
Friday, they released a statement about the MBO. It isn't a barn-burner, but the stock has traded through terms since announcement at a too-low price. And nobody else has commented.


Japan Activism:  Japan Catalyst Fund Calls Out Taisho Pharma Committee on MBO Price

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> has priced its IPO at US$51.00 per ADS, at the top end of the price range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> will raise gross proceeds of US$4.9bn.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111238" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111471" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-unattractive-price-range" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112285" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: Unattractive Price Range</a>. </li>
<li>The ARM IPO is structurally set up for a first-day pop. Beyond the first-day euphoria, ARM will face the daunting task of delivering bullish estimates to justify the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) has priced its IPO at US$51.00 per ADS, at the top end of the price range. Softbank Group (9984 JP) will raise gross proceeds of US$4.9bn.
We previously discussed the IPO in ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case and ARM Holdings IPO: Unattractive Price Range. 
The ARM IPO is structurally set up for a first-day pop. Beyond the first-day euphoria, ARM will face the daunting task of delivering bullish estimates to justify the IPO price.


ARM Holdings IPO Trading: Structurally Set up for a First-Day Pop, but Then What?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kenvue-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36755:1" rel="noopener">Kenvue (KVUE US)</a> reported 5% YoY revenue growth to $4B in 2Q23, driven by continued demand of self-care portfolio, mainly consisting of cough, cold, and allergy, and pain care products.</li>
<li>The company has guided for 4.5–5.5% revenue growth and EPS of $1.26–1.31 for 2023. Kenvue has declared a cash dividend of $0.20 for 3Q23.  </li>
<li>J&amp;J is offering its shareholders the option to exchange shares for Kenvue's at a 7% discount. The exchange offer is scheduled to close on August 18, 2023.</li>
</ul>



Kenvue (KVUE US) reported 5% YoY revenue growth to $4B in 2Q23, driven by continued demand of self-care portfolio, mainly consisting of cough, cold, and allergy, and pain care products.
The company has guided for 4.5–5.5% revenue growth and EPS of $1.26–1.31 for 2023. Kenvue has declared a cash dividend of $0.20 for 3Q23.  
J&amp;J is offering its shareholders the option to exchange shares for Kenvue's at a 7% discount. The exchange offer is scheduled to close on August 18, 2023.


Kenvue (KVUE US): Q2 Result Beats Estimates; Initiated 2023 Guidance; J&J Launches Exchange Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kenvue-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36755:1" rel="noopener">Kenvue (KVUE US)</a>, a wholly owned subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johnson-johnson" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1132:1" rel="noopener">Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US)</a>, is preparing for an IPO of 151M shares. The IPO price is expected to be $20–23/share.  </li>
<li>Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and BofA Securities are acting as joint lead bookrunning managers for the IPO. J&amp;J will still own more than 90% of Kenvue’s shares after the IPO.</li>
<li>In 1Q23, Kenvue’s revenue increased 7% YoY to $3.9B, driven by a 12% YoY revenue growth in self-care OTC products. Adjusted net income increased 3% YoY to $630M.</li>
</ul>



Kenvue (KVUE US), a wholly owned subsidiary of Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US), is preparing for an IPO of 151M shares. The IPO price is expected to be $20–23/share.  
Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and BofA Securities are acting as joint lead bookrunning managers for the IPO. J&amp;J will still own more than 90% of Kenvue’s shares after the IPO.
In 1Q23, Kenvue’s revenue increased 7% YoY to $3.9B, driven by a 12% YoY revenue growth in self-care OTC products. Adjusted net income increased 3% YoY to $630M.


Kenvue (KVUE US) Pre-IPO: Marquee Brands to Drive Profitable Growth

United States

Kenvue Inc. operates as a consumer health company. The Company offers a consumer health portfolio in self-care, skin health & beauty, and essential health products. Kenvue serves customers worldwide.

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Kenvue (KVUE US)

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5%...

Arun George

Japan Activism: Japan Catalyst Fund Calls Out Taisho Pharma Committee on MBO Price

Japan Catalyst Fund (an engagement activist) operated by Monex is small, but Taisho Pharm was their 5th largest position at end-Oct. They appear to...

Travis Lundy

ARM Holdings IPO Trading: Structurally Set up for a First-Day Pop, but Then What?

The ARM IPO is structurally set up for a first-day pop. Beyond the first-day euphoria, ARM will face the daunting task of delivering bullish...

Arun George

Kenvue (KVUE US): Q2 Result Beats Estimates; Initiated 2023 Guidance; J&J Launches Exchange Offer

Kenvue beat Q2 sales and EPS estimates and guided for 4.5-5.5% sales growth for 2023. J&J is launching exchange offer for its holders to get ...

Tina Banerjee

Kenvue (KVUE US) Pre-IPO: Marquee Brands to Drive Profitable Growth

J&J’s consumer health spin-off entity Kenvue is preparing for NYSE IPO. The IPO has been priced at $20–23 per share to raise ~$3.2B. Goldman Sachs,...

Tina Banerjee

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