Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The recently announced restructuring is unlikely to be the silver bullet that many investors are expecting.</li>
<li>Kellogg is now faced with the challenge of improving gross margins.</li>
<li>The high dividend yield is also not as attractive once we factor in the probability of future dividend growth, says Kellogg.</li>
</ul>


The recently announced restructuring is unlikely to be the silver bullet that many investors are expecting.
Kellogg is now faced with the challenge of improving gross margins.
The high dividend yield is also not as attractive once we factor in the probability of future dividend growth, says Kellogg.


Kellogg: Focusing On Snacking Is Not A Silver Bullet

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Kellogg ended the year with an all-around beat and double-digit net sales growth in every region, supported by end-market success.</li><li>The company continued to experience great growth in emerging countries, driven by its portfolio of noodles and other products in Africa.</li><li>They reduced the profit impact of abnormally high input costs that increased during the year using efficiency and well-planned activities for managing sales growth.</li></ul>

Kellogg ended the year with an all-around beat and double-digit net sales growth in every region, supported by end-market success.The company continued to experience great growth in emerging countries, driven by its portfolio of noodles and other products in Africa.They reduced the profit impact of abnormally high input costs that increased during the year using efficiency and well-planned activities for managing sales growth.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.</li>
<li>The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). </li>
<li>These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.</li>
</ul>


Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

<ul><li>Kellogg delivered another all-around beat and saw good business momentum which is why the management enhanced their forecasts for the entire year.</li><li>Despite ongoing delays and shortages of everything ranging from supplies and equipment to trucks and containers, Kellogg’s margins have been decent.</li><li>Besides, Kellogg maintained its robust growth momentum for snacks globally.</li></ul>

Kellogg delivered another all-around beat and saw good business momentum which is why the management enhanced their forecasts for the entire year.Despite ongoing delays and shortages of everything ranging from supplies and equipment to trucks and containers, Kellogg’s margins have been decent.Besides, Kellogg maintained its robust growth momentum for snacks globally.

<ul><li>Kellogg has had a sustained emphasis on execution which resulted in the company surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of both, revenues as well as earnings.</li><li>As both the company's own inventories as well as client inventories are replenished, its North American cereal business gradually resumes business and gains market share.</li><li>In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.</li></ul>

Kellogg has had a sustained emphasis on execution which resulted in the company surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of both, revenues as well as earnings.As both the company's own inventories as well as client inventories are replenished, its North American cereal business gradually resumes business and gains market share.In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Kellogg Company: Business Restructuring & Other Drivers

United States

Kellogg Company manufactures and markets ready-to-eat cereal and other convenience foods. The Company's products include cereals, cookies, crackers, toaster pastries, cereal bars, fruit snacks, frozen waffles and veggie foods. Kellogg markets its products in the United States, Canada, and other countries throughout the world.

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Kellogg Co (K US)

Kellogg: Focusing On Snacking Is Not A Silver Bullet

The recently announced restructuring is unlikely to be the silver bullet that many investors are expecting.Kellogg is now faced with the challenge...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Kellogg Company: Major Drivers

Kellogg ended the year with an all-around beat and double-digit net sales growth in every region, supported by end-market success. The company...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

Kellogg Co: & Other Drivers

Kellogg delivered another all-around beat and saw good business momentum which is why the management enhanced their forecasts for the entire...

Baptista Research

Kellogg Company: Business Restructuring & Other Drivers

Kellogg has had a sustained emphasis on execution which resulted in the company surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of both, revenues as...

Baptista Research

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