Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.</li>
<li>We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level</li>
</ul>


Since March we have consistently said we believe any bottoming process would likely take weeks or months and could come with more tests of the lows, or even an undercut.
We are testing the March lows now in several global indexes, including the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US).
While this is a logical spot for a bounce, we see rallies as selling opportunities at the index level


MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sky-perfect-jsat-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14097:1" rel="noopener">Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)</a> posted Q4 results and guidance that are ahead of expectations for profitability</li>
<li>The company has unveiled plan to re-leverage and invest more, starting with its recently announced JV with NTT , underscoring its confidence in the potential of the space business</li>
<li>The plan also includes a c. 60% increase in shareholder returns over the next five years, likely through the flexible application of share buybacks</li>
</ul>



Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP) posted Q4 results and guidance that are ahead of expectations for profitability
The company has unveiled plan to re-leverage and invest more, starting with its recently announced JV with NTT , underscoring its confidence in the potential of the space business
The plan also includes a c. 60% increase in shareholder returns over the next five years, likely through the flexible application of share buybacks


Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) - Q4 21 Results Reaction: A Huge Declaration of Confidence

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. </li>
<li>On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.</li>
<li>There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.</li>
</ul>


There are two days to go until the TOPIX April-end rebalance. 
On an average-weighted, sector-neutral basis, the "announcement to event" trade is -0.3% from 7 April to 25 April. The rest of the buy vs sell basket is doing worse.
There should be ¥740bn-ish to buy and sell (each) on Wednesday at the close. If you have trades to execute in Japan, the attached spreadsheet shows where there is opportunity.


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Amazon Japan continues to lead in online merchandise sales, with GTVs rising faster than Rakuten in 2021 and far ahead of Z Holdings. </li>
<li>Nevertheless both the domestic incumbents are fighting hard to overcome their weaknesses and use their strengths in mobile networks, loyalty points and cashless payments to win share.</li>
<li>Rakuten is also now making it possible to consolidate orders from multiple merchants and plans to open this service to any online merchant – a game changer for online platforms. </li>
</ul>


Amazon Japan continues to lead in online merchandise sales, with GTVs rising faster than Rakuten in 2021 and far ahead of Z Holdings. 
Nevertheless both the domestic incumbents are fighting hard to overcome their weaknesses and use their strengths in mobile networks, loyalty points and cashless payments to win share.
Rakuten is also now making it possible to consolidate orders from multiple merchants and plans to open this service to any online merchant – a game changer for online platforms. 


Japan E-Commerce Wars Intensify Among the Big 3 Online Platforms

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The April-June TSE FFW Methodology Revision moves favour certain sectors over others. There is nearly ¥500bn of telecom stocks to buy with 60+% of that in four names.</li>
<li>Other factors may support some of the names as well. </li>
<li>There is enough excess buying to warrant trading tilts and keeping fundamental positions even as forward earnings multiples have expanded to multi-year highs.</li>
</ul>


The April-June TSE FFW Methodology Revision moves favour certain sectors over others. There is nearly ¥500bn of telecom stocks to buy with 60+% of that in four names.
Other factors may support some of the names as well. 
There is enough excess buying to warrant trading tilts and keeping fundamental positions even as forward earnings multiples have expanded to multi-year highs.


Strong Telecom Flows in TOPIX FFW Transition Months

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EM Testing Logical Support; Actionable Themes: Defensives & Reopening Stocks

We are testing the March lows in several global indexes, including the MSCI $ACWI, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and EM $EEM. While this is a logical spot for...

Vermilion Research

Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) - Q4 21 Results Reaction: A Huge Declaration of Confidence

This was a good report with a financial beat and an aggressive investment plan that underscores its confidence in the space segment. A JV with NTT...

Kirk Boodry

TOPIX April Rebalance - Two Days To Go

The TOPIX April-June rebalance for FFW review and Liquidity Factor adjustment sees its first tranche of trades executed Wednesday at the close.

Travis Lundy

Japan E-Commerce Wars Intensify Among the Big 3 Online Platforms

The intensity of competition between the big 3 in e-commerce (Amazon, Rakuten, Z Holdings) means that all are investing heavily. Amazon leads but...

Michael Causton

Strong Telecom Flows in TOPIX FFW Transition Months

The Telecom Sector is the biggest sector beneficiary of TOPIX FFW flows over the next few months. Still bullish NTT vs the others near-term. All...

Travis Lundy

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