Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TSE launched its new cash equity market structure earlier this week. The TOPIX Index changes include a one-off FFW Methodology Review, where results were announced today. </li>
<li>The changes announced today go part-way to fixing float issues, but there will be follow-on changes in October, and one should expect companies to react with share cancellations.</li>
<li>The big gainer in this TOPIX rebal is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>. There are a fair number of "losers." The 3-month total trade is about ¥2.3trln one-way.</li>
</ul>


The TSE launched its new cash equity market structure earlier this week. The TOPIX Index changes include a one-off FFW Methodology Review, where results were announced today. 
The changes announced today go part-way to fixing float issues, but there will be follow-on changes in October, and one should expect companies to react with share cancellations.
The big gainer in this TOPIX rebal is NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP). There are a fair number of "losers." The 3-month total trade is about ¥2.3trln one-way.


The BIGLY TOPIX April 2022 Rebalance - $20bn One-Way Split Over 3 Months

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.</li>
<li>It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.</li>
</ul>


The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.
Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.
It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.


Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> has signed a deal to buy 6,002 DoCoMo towers for ¥106bn validating its long term growth potential and its central position as Japan's infrastructure-sharing company</li>
<li>The headline numbers are maximums and could take years to realize as JTower grows to the scale required</li>
<li>Conversely it is not a large deal for DoCoMo but the first mobile tower sale/leaseback transaction in Japan highlights an industry shift towards more efficient capital deployment</li>
</ul>



JTower (4485 JP) has signed a deal to buy 6,002 DoCoMo towers for ¥106bn validating its long term growth potential and its central position as Japan's infrastructure-sharing company
The headline numbers are maximums and could take years to realize as JTower grows to the scale required
Conversely it is not a large deal for DoCoMo but the first mobile tower sale/leaseback transaction in Japan highlights an industry shift towards more efficient capital deployment


JTower Inc - DoCoMo Tower Agreement Is a Milestone

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Thanks to the huge supply chain capabilities of its parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a> is moving into new categories of private label product.</li>
<li>These are not the traditional staples of the convenience store but new types of more fashionable lifestyle products in clothing and cosmetics.</li>
<li>Recent results show successful collaboration with Noin for cosmetics and with Hiromichi Ochiai from Facetasm for clothing basics, selling more than 1 million items each.</li>
</ul>


Thanks to the huge supply chain capabilities of its parent Itochu Corp (8001 JP), FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) is moving into new categories of private label product.
These are not the traditional staples of the convenience store but new types of more fashionable lifestyle products in clothing and cosmetics.
Recent results show successful collaboration with Noin for cosmetics and with Hiromichi Ochiai from Facetasm for clothing basics, selling more than 1 million items each.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Analysts are expecting cashless payments in Japan for 2021 to show further accelerated growth in the use of mobile payment apps.</li>
<li>Surveys suggest consumers rapidly increased their use of mobile payments and are even expressing frustration when the service is unavailable. </li>
<li>PayPay is utterly dominant with nearly 50% share based on survey responses. We expect consolidation below from NTT, Mercari, Rakuten and KDDI.</li>
</ul>


Analysts are expecting cashless payments in Japan for 2021 to show further accelerated growth in the use of mobile payment apps.
Surveys suggest consumers rapidly increased their use of mobile payments and are even expressing frustration when the service is unavailable. 
PayPay is utterly dominant with nearly 50% share based on survey responses. We expect consolidation below from NTT, Mercari, Rakuten and KDDI.


Growth in Cashless Payments Surges in Japan – PayPay Totally Dominant

Japan

KDDI CORPORATION provides mobile communication services and sells mobile devices.  The Company also is a broadband provider.

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KDDI Corp (9433 JP)

The BIGLY TOPIX April 2022 Rebalance - $20bn One-Way Split Over 3 Months

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Travis Lundy

Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Sticking With Cyclical Value & Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology. 2-3 week bounce has likely run its course with $TOPIX $Nikkei 225,...

Vermilion Research

JTower Inc - DoCoMo Tower Agreement Is a Milestone

Japan is a latecomer to infrastructure sharing but DoCoMo's tower sale to JTower changes that. Considering the latter's scale, this could take a...

Kirk Boodry

Familymart, the Lifestyle Store

Itochu always intended to make better use of its vast network of suppliers to improve both the merchandise mix at Familymart and also gross...

Michael Causton

Growth in Cashless Payments Surges in Japan – PayPay Totally Dominant

Japan is shifting from 80-90% cash retail transactions to 40-50% cashless in the blink of an eye. Softbank/Z HD dominates with nearly 50% share and...

Michael Causton

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