Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-plaza-hotel-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18213:1" rel="noopener">Central Plaza Hotel</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/com7-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27411:1" rel="noopener">Com7 PCL</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.</li>
<li>The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We'd use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.</li>
</ul>



Central Plaza Hotel, Com7 PCL, Delta Electronics Thai and Ratch Group will replace Bangkok Life Assurance, IRPC PCL, KCE Electronics PCL and Srisawad Power in the SET 50 Index. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 0.6-3 days of ADV on the deletes.
The adds have significantly outperformed the deletes over the last few months. We'd use any big moves over the next couple of days to trim positions.


SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The reference period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> December 2022 Rebalance is about to come to an end.</li>
<li>With the market consultation changes confirmed as expected and the DTAC-TRUE merger likely to get delayed to 1Q CY2023, I expect 4 ADDs/DELs in December 2022. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB)</a> is a potential surprise ADD and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a> is a potential surprise DEL out of the index changes predicted in this insight.</li>
</ul>


The reference period for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) December 2022 Rebalance is about to come to an end.
With the market consultation changes confirmed as expected and the DTAC-TRUE merger likely to get delayed to 1Q CY2023, I expect 4 ADDs/DELs in December 2022. 

Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB) is a potential surprise ADD and IRPC PCL (IRPC TB) is a potential surprise DEL out of the index changes predicted in this insight.


Thailand SET50 Quiddity Dec 22 Final Expectations: DTAC-TRUE Delay Could Cause RATCH-IRPC Surprise

<ul>
<li>The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> ends in 6 trading days.</li>
<li>Following the market consultation and reduction in the turnover ratio, there could be four changes to the index. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">TRUE</a> merger could result in another inclusion in Q1 2023.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the December rebalance is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 7.4bn. More than 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.</li>
</ul>


The market cap review period for the December rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) ends in 6 trading days.
Following the market consultation and reduction in the turnover ratio, there could be four changes to the index. The DTAC/TRUE merger could result in another inclusion in Q1 2023.
Estimated one-way turnover at the December rebalance is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 7.4bn. More than 1x ADV to trade on most stocks.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We downgrade to HOLD rating and cut our TP to Bt44.75(-35% from previous TP), based on 22.3xPE’23E(-0.5S.D.of 5-Year trading history).Despite 3Q22 earnings was higher than expected, our outlook for 2023</li>
<li>Analyst Meeting Details Management believes that, in 2023, the company’s revenue will grow between 5% to 10% YoY and will attain gross margin of 26% to 27% assuming</li>
<li>We believe that achieving revenue growth of 5% to 10% will be difficult considering based on a potential recession and high prolonged interest rates impacting automobile sales.</li>
</ul>


We downgrade to HOLD rating and cut our TP to Bt44.75(-35% from previous TP), based on 22.3xPE’23E(-0.5S.D.of 5-Year trading history).Despite 3Q22 earnings was higher than expected, our outlook for 2023
Analyst Meeting Details Management believes that, in 2023, the company’s revenue will grow between 5% to 10% YoY and will attain gross margin of 26% to 27% assuming
We believe that achieving revenue growth of 5% to 10% will be difficult considering based on a potential recession and high prolonged interest rates impacting automobile sales.


KCE : Recession Should Impact 2023 Growth

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We propose a new set of global plays in accordance with the de- globalization trend, shifting the allocation toward Asia-based companies with better growth prospects than those that generate the bulk of their revenue in Western markets.</li><li>Our recommended stocks are CBG and SCGP.</li><li><div><div><p>The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth potential.</p></div></div></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

We propose a new set of global plays in accordance with the de- globalization trend, shifting the allocation toward Asia-based companies with better growth prospects than those that generate the bulk of their revenue in Western markets.Our recommended stocks are CBG and SCGP.The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth potential.

Changing Landscape for Global Plays - Shifting the Allocation of Global Plays Toward Asia

Thailand

Hana Microelectronics Public Company Limited is an electronics manufacturing service company.  The Company manufactures electronic components on behalf of its customers for shipment to them or their customers.

Cal-Comp Electronics (Thailand) PCL is an original equipment manufacturer of computer peripheral, office equipment and consumer electronic products. Its products include desktop computers, CD-ROMS, web pads, MP3 players, integrated receiver decoders, fax machines, mobile phones, cordless phones, pagers, and transceivers.  The Company is part of Kinpo Group of Taiwan.

SVI Public Company Limited provides printed circuit board contract manufacturing services.  Most of its customers are original equipment manufacturers of computer peripheral products, telecommunication equipment, and industrial equipment and instruments.

Jaymart PCL distributes mobile phones and accessories.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provide retail management and debt collection services.

Synnex Thailand PCL distributes computer products.  The Company distributes computer components and peripherals, servers and storage devices, security products, computer software, and consumables.

Forth Corp PCL manufactures and sells telecommunications and electronic equipment. The Company also develop and install the data management system, manufactures, sells, and installs traffic light system and equipment, manufactures and sells electronic signs, as well as distributes electronic parts.

SiS Distribution (Thailand) Public Company Ltd. distributes computers and peripherals.  The Company distributes the products to resellers, retailers, system integrators, software houses, value added resellers, and original equipment manufacturers.

Samart Corporation Public Company Limited develops satellite communication systems, supplies various system types of television signals, and provides mobile multimedia content as well as enterprise network solution services. The Company also distributes telecommunication products, and provides mobile phone service and air traffic control service in Cambodia.

Muramoto Electron (Thailand) Public Company Limited manufactures electronic component parts including video deck chassis, compact disc auto changer assembly, cathode ray tube (CRT), electric appliance parts, as well as electron gun and precision metal parts.  The Company is a part of the Muramoto Group of Japan.

Team Precision Public Company Limited provides contract-manufacturing services of printed circuit board assemblies (PCBAs), and turnkey electronic services to original equipment manufacturers.  The company produces PCBAs using surface mount, plated through hole, and chip on board technologies.  It also offers product design and testing, material sourcing, and engineering support services.

Topcorn Corporation manufactures and sells measuring equipment and medical equipment primarily for ophthalmologist use. The Company also manufactures industrial products including projectors and optical devices.

CTS Corporation designs and manufactures electronic components and sensors to original equipment manufacturers in the automotive, communications, medical, defense and aerospace, industrial and computer markets.

Genus Power Infrastructures Ltd. manufactures electronic meters and other power control equipment. The Company produces residential, industrial, substation, agricultural, grid and group meters, inverters, uninterruptible power supplies, and hybrid microcircuits; and designs and constructs substations, transmission and distribution lines, and electrification projects.

PC Connection, Inc. is a direct marketer of personal computers and related peripherals, software, accessories, and networking products. The Company sells to small and medium-sized businesses. PC Connection carries high turnover products in inventory, and in addition provides customer service and technical support.

Wah Lee Industrial Corp. markets engineering plastic materials for computer peripherals and electronic connectors.  The Company also sells chemicals, integrated circuit (IC) processing materials,  as well as printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing equipment.

ITEQ Corporation manufactures and markets prepregs and copper clad laminates for the printed circuit board industry. The Company mainly sells its products overseas.

Wuhu Token Science Co., Ltd. researches, produces and sells vacuum thin film material for flat panel displays.  The Company's products are liquid crystal display conductive film glass, touch-screen conductive film glass, and mobile phone panel material.

Codan Limited develops rugged and electronics solutions for international government, corporate, NGO and consumer markets. The company's line of business includes provision of radio communications, metal detection and tracking solutions.

Benchmark Electronics, Inc. provides contract electronics manufacturing and design services.  The Company serves original equipment manufacturers of medical devices, industrial control equipment, testing and instrumentation products, and telecommunications equipment.  Benchmark also offers product design, printed circuit board layout, prototyping and test development services.

Shenzhen Topband Co., Ltd. researches, manufactures and markets electronic intelligent controllers for electric household appliances.

KCE Electronics Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries manufacture and export single-layered, multi-layered, and double-sided printed circuit boards (PCBs) under its KCE trademark.  Multi-layered PCBs are used mainly in high technology equipment and high precision instruments.  Double-sided PCBs are used largely in telecommunication and computing equipment.

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KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance: CENTEL, COM7, DELTA, RATCH Added; BLA, IRPC, KCE, SAWAD Out

There are 4 changes for the SET50 Index in Dec, all in line with forecasts. Passive trackers will need to buy between 2-4 days ADV on the adds...

Brian Freitas

Thailand SET50 Quiddity Dec 22 Final Expectations: DTAC-TRUE Delay Could Cause RATCH-IRPC Surprise

I expect 4 ADDs/DELs in the Dec 22 Rebalance. The Expected ADDs (DELTA, BJC, RATCH, and COM7) could outperform the Expected DELs (KCE, BLA, SAWAD,...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four Potential Changes in December

Following the market consultation, there could be 4 index change in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.1% and will result in a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

KCE : Recession Should Impact 2023 Growth

We downgrade to HOLD rating and cut our TP to Bt44.75 (-35% from previous TP), based on 22.3xPE’23E (-0.5S.D. of 5-Year trading history). Despite...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Changing Landscape for Global Plays - Shifting the Allocation of Global Plays Toward Asia

The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth...

Krungthai XSpring

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)