Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>Over the past month, the stock performance of the four largest banks in Korea has been interesting. Hana Financial Group and Woori Financial Group outperformed relatively, and in particular, KB Financial Group underperformed by more than 5%p compared to Woori Financial Group.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/219/154/original/Screen+Shot+2021-07-18+at+6.21.51+PM.png?1626646949" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="219154"></figure><p></p></section><p>In this interim dividend, there is a possibility that dividends not paid last year will be paid retroactively. However, excluding this possibility and assuming that the total annual dividend for this year is adjusted to the level of 2019, Woori Financial Group and Hana Financial Group have the highest dividend yields.</p><table class="table table-striped">
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<td style="width: 380.724px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Dividend yield"}'>Estimated dividend yield, assuming that the total annual dividend for. this year is adjusted to the level of 2019</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 86.8324px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2018}'>2018</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.5852px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2019}'>2019</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 94.7301px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2020}'>2020</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 91.1364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2021E"}'>2021E</td>
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<td style="width: 380.724px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shinhan Financial"}'>Shinhan Financial</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 86.8324px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0404}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.04%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.5852px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0427}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.27%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 94.7301px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0468}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.68%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 91.1364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.050608571468662246}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[-14]C[0]/googlefinance(R[-42]C[0], "price")'><strong>5.06%</strong></td>
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<td style="width: 380.724px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KB Financial"}'>KB Financial</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 86.8324px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0413}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.13%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.5852px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0464}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.64%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 94.7301px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0408}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.08%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 91.1364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.05260170044159115}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[-14]C[0]/googlefinance(R[-42]C[0], "price")'><strong>5.26%</strong></td>
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<td style="width: 380.724px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hana Financial"}'>Hana Financial</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 86.8324px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0524}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>5.24%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.5852px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0569}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>5.69%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 94.7301px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0536}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>5.36%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 91.1364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0619847401646764}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[-14]C[0]/googlefinance(R[-42]C[0], "price")'><strong>6.20%</strong></td>
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<td style="width: 380.724px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Woori Financial"}'><div><div>Woori Financial</div></div></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 86.8324px;"></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 92.5852px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0603}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>6.03%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 94.7301px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.037}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>3.70%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 91.1364px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.06629340778032639}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[-14]C[0]/googlefinance(R[-42]C[0], "price")'><strong>6.63%</strong></td>
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<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" style="width: 746.008px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide &amp; KSD Seibro"}'>Source: FnGuide &amp; KSD Seibro</td></tr>
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</table><p>This is similar to the dividend yield calculated based on this year's estimated DPS of local street consensus gathered by FnGuide.</p><table class="table table-striped">
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<td style="width: 362.429px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Dividend yield"}'>Annual dividend yield based on the local street consensus compiled by FnGuide</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2018}'>2018</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2019}'>2019</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2020}'>2020</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.0653px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2021E"}'>2021E</td>
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<td style="width: 362.429px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shinhan Financial"}'>Shinhan Financial</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0404}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.04%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0427}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.27%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0468}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.68%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.0653px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.052}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[-28]C[0]/googlefinance(R[-35]C[0], "price")'><strong>5.20%</strong></td>
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<td style="width: 362.429px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KB Financial"}'>KB Financial</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0413}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.13%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0464}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.64%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0408}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>4.08%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.0653px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.05146666666666667}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[-28]C[0]/googlefinance(R[-35]C[0], "price")'><strong>5.15%</strong></td>
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<td style="width: 362.429px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hana Financial"}'>Hana Financial</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0524}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>5.24%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0569}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>5.69%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0536}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>5.36%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.0653px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.06045662100456621}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[-28]C[0]/googlefinance(R[-35]C[0], "price")'><strong>6.05%</strong></td>
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<td style="width: 362.429px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Woori Financial"}'><div><div>Woori Financial</div></div></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;">-</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.0603}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>6.03%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.8381px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.037}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>3.70%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 96.0653px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.06334801762114538}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=R[-28]C[0]/googlefinance(R[-35]C[0], "price")'><strong>6.33%</strong></td>
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<tr><td colspan="5" rowspan="1" style="width: 746.008px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide &amp; KSD Seibro"}'>Source: FnGuide &amp; KSD Seibro</td></tr>
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</table><p>As shown in the downward trend of 12M forward PER below, the market is taking a conservative approach to the recent slowdown in bank stocks' earnings growth, which is believed to have led to growing interest in dividends.</p><p>Interestingly, the difference in P/E decline between Hana Financial Group and KB Financial Group was the largest. This seems to have been influenced by the fact that Hana Financial Group has a higher probability of paying expected dividends than Woori Financial Group.</p><table class="table table-striped">
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"12-month forward PER"}'>12-month forward PER</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44393}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 7. 16</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"3 months ago"}'>3 months ago</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"3-month Δ"}'>3-month Δ</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shinhan Financial"}'>Shinhan Financial</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5.03}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x","3":1}'>5.03x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5.12}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x","3":1}'>5.12x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.017578124999999972}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-1.76%</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KB Financial"}'><strong>KB Financial</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5.17}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x","3":1}'><strong>5.17x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5.65}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x","3":1}'><strong>5.65x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.08495575221238945}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]"><strong>-8.50%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hana Financial"}'><strong>Hana Financial</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4.21}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x","3":1}'><strong>4.21x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4.35}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x","3":1}'><strong>4.35x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.03218390804597694}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]"><strong>-3.22%</strong></td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Woori Financial"}'>Woori Financial</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3.99}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x","3":1}'>3.99x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4.16}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x","3":1}'>4.16x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.040865384615384595}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]">-4.09%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide &amp; KSD Seibro"}'>Source: FnGuide &amp; KSD Seibro</td></tr>
</tbody>
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Over the past month, the stock performance of the four largest banks in Korea has been interesting. Hana Financial Group and Woori Financial Group outperformed relatively, and in particular, KB Financial Group underperformed by more than 5%p compared to Woori Financial Group.In this interim dividend, there is a possibility that dividends not paid last year will be paid retroactively. However, excluding this possibility and assuming that the total annual dividend for this year is adjusted to the level of 2019, Woori Financial Group and Hana Financial Group have the highest dividend yields.









Estimated dividend yield, assuming that the total annual dividend for. this year is adjusted to the level of 2019
2018
2019
2020
2021E


Shinhan Financial
4.04%
4.27%
4.68%
5.06%


KB Financial
4.13%
4.64%
4.08%
5.26%


Hana Financial
5.24%
5.69%
5.36%
6.20%


Woori Financial

6.03%
3.70%
6.63%

Source: FnGuide &amp; KSD Seibro

This is similar to the dividend yield calculated based on this year's estimated DPS of local street consensus gathered by FnGuide.









Annual dividend yield based on the local street consensus compiled by FnGuide
2018
2019
2020
2021E


Shinhan Financial
4.04%
4.27%
4.68%
5.20%


KB Financial
4.13%
4.64%
4.08%
5.15%


Hana Financial
5.24%
5.69%
5.36%
6.05%


Woori Financial
-
6.03%
3.70%
6.33%

Source: FnGuide &amp; KSD Seibro

As shown in the downward trend of 12M forward PER below, the market is taking a conservative approach to the recent slowdown in bank stocks' earnings growth, which is believed to have led to growing interest in dividends.Interestingly, the difference in P/E decline between Hana Financial Group and KB Financial Group was the largest. This seems to have been influenced by the fact that Hana Financial Group has a higher probability of paying expected dividends than Woori Financial Group.








12-month forward PER
2021. 7. 16
3 months ago
3-month Δ


Shinhan Financial
5.03x
5.12x
-1.76%


KB Financial
5.17x
5.65x
-8.50%


Hana Financial
4.21x
4.35x
-3.22%


Woori Financial
3.99x
4.16x
-4.09%

Source: FnGuide &amp; KSD Seibro



Korean Local Banks Trading Dynamics: Dividend Yield Difference & Kakao Bank Listing

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p>Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, aims to raise up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 31.62% stake prior to listing.</p></div><div><p>Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea. KB’s loans have grown by 138% over 2018 to 1Q21 to reach KRW21.6tn, while its deposits have grown by 197% over the same period to reach KRW24.2tn. </p></div><div><p>Over 2018-20, its total income (Net interest income plus net fee income) grew by 216%, while it went from booking a loss in 2018 to reporting a 26% profit margin by 2020. KB’s total income was up another 60% YoY in 1Q21, while PAT was up 153% YoY.</p></div><div><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-riding-on-parent-s-network-but-boundaries-with-kakao-pay-remain-unclear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-pricey-as-it-should-be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be</a>.</p></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about out the what the lack of lock-up on some investors could mean for index inclusion.</p></div>

Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, aims to raise up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 31.62% stake prior to listing.Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea. KB’s loans have grown by 138% over 2018 to 1Q21 to reach KRW21.6tn, while its deposits have grown by 197% over the same period to reach KRW24.2tn. Over 2018-20, its total income (Net interest income plus net fee income) grew by 216%, while it went from booking a loss in 2018 to reporting a 26% profit margin by 2020. KB’s total income was up another 60% YoY in 1Q21, while PAT was up 153% YoY.We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes, Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear and Kakao Bank IPO - Pricey as It Should Be.In this note, we will talk about out the what the lack of lock-up on some investors could mean for index inclusion.

Kakao Bank IPO - Lack of Lock-Up and MSCI, FTSE Index Implications

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, aims to raise up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 31.62% stake prior to listing.</p><p>Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea. KB’s loans have grown by 138% over 2018 to 1Q21 to reach KRW21.6tn, while its deposits have grown by 197% over the same period to reach KRW24.2tn. </p><p>Over 2018-20, its total income (Net interest income plus net fee income) grew by 216%, while it went from booking a loss in 2018 to reporting a 26% profit margin by 2020. KB’s total income was up another 60% YoY in 1Q21, while PAT was up 153% YoY.</p><p>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-bank-ipo-riding-on-parent-s-network-but-boundaries-with-kakao-pay-remain-unclear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear</a>.</p><p>In this note, we will talk about our earnings estimates and valuation and other issues that will impact the deal.</p>

Kakao Bank (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, aims to raise up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao held a 31.62% stake prior to listing.Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea. KB’s loans have grown by 138% over 2018 to 1Q21 to reach KRW21.6tn, while its deposits have grown by 197% over the same period to reach KRW24.2tn. Over 2018-20, its total income (Net interest income plus net fee income) grew by 216%, while it went from booking a loss in 2018 to reporting a 26% profit margin by 2020. KB’s total income was up another 60% YoY in 1Q21, while PAT was up 153% YoY.We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note, Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on parents network but boundaries with Kakao Pay remain unclear.In this note, we will talk about our earnings estimates and valuation and other issues that will impact the deal.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaobank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33501:1" rel="noopener">KakaoBank (1349010D KS)</a> (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, aims to raise up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> held a 31.62% stake prior to listing.</p><p>Kakao Bank is a digital-bank which counts Kakao as its main shareholder. It is a branchless digital bank that only started operations in 2017. As of Mar 21, it had a loan book of US$18.8bn, deposit base of US$21.1bn. It had 16.5m customers as of May 21.</p>

KakaoBank (1349010D KS) (KB), South Korea’s largest digital bank, aims to raise up to US$2.2bn in its South Korean IPO. Kakao Corp (035720 KS) held a 31.62% stake prior to listing.Kakao Bank is a digital-bank which counts Kakao as its main shareholder. It is a branchless digital bank that only started operations in 2017. As of Mar 21, it had a loan book of US$18.8bn, deposit base of US$21.1bn. It had 16.5m customers as of May 21.

Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on Parent's Network but Boundaries with Kakao Pay Remain Unclear

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

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<p>Our base case valuation of Kakao Bank is market cap of 26.8 trillion won or implied price of 56,144 won per share. This represents 44% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 39,000 won but 34% lower than the current private market value of <a href="http://www.ipo38.co.kr/ipo/index.htm?o=v&amp;key=6&amp;no=1676&amp;l=&amp;page=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">85,000 won. </a>Given the solid upside versus the IPO price range, we have a Positive Rating of the Kakao Bank IPO. </p>
<p>All in all, we believe that the there could be a nice 30-50%+ upside relative to the high end of the IPO price range (39,000 won). Nonetheless, although Kakao Bank's share could reach the private market value (85,000 won) on the first day of trading, over a longer time frame (6-12 months), we are more comfortable with the base case valuation of 56,144 won (26.8 trillion won) as a new entrant (Toss Bank) as well as existing major banks are likely to heighten their competitive pressures on the company. </p>
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Our base case valuation of Kakao Bank is market cap of 26.8 trillion won or implied price of 56,144 won per share. This represents 44% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of 39,000 won but 34% lower than the current private market value of 85,000 won. Given the solid upside versus the IPO price range, we have a Positive Rating of the Kakao Bank IPO. 
All in all, we believe that the there could be a nice 30-50%+ upside relative to the high end of the IPO price range (39,000 won). Nonetheless, although Kakao Bank's share could reach the private market value (85,000 won) on the first day of trading, over a longer time frame (6-12 months), we are more comfortable with the base case valuation of 56,144 won (26.8 trillion won) as a new entrant (Toss Bank) as well as existing major banks are likely to heighten their competitive pressures on the company. 


South Korea

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

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KB Financial ADR (KB US)

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Kakao Bank IPO - Riding on Parent's Network but Boundaries with Kakao Pay Remain Unclear

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Sumeet Singh

Kakao Bank Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Kakao Bank is market cap of 26.8 trillion won or implied price of 56,144 won per share. This represents 44% higher than...

Douglas Kim

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