IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-31/japan-banks-extend-deadline-for-toshiba-bid-s-loan-decision#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reports</a> that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has again extended the deadline for securing bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion).</li>
<li>A new issue has pushed the deadline to 3 February. If JIP manages to secure financing for an offer of around JPY5,100, the next challenge is securing Board support.</li>
<li>The 3QFY2022 update on 14 February needs to avoid further downgrades to keep the deal alive. Toshiba’s multiples are unattractive to peers. Remain on the sidelines for now.</li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has again extended the deadline for securing bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion).
A new issue has pushed the deadline to 3 February. If JIP manages to secure financing for an offer of around JPY5,100, the next challenge is securing Board support.
The 3QFY2022 update on 14 February needs to avoid further downgrades to keep the deal alive. Toshiba’s multiples are unattractive to peers. Remain on the sidelines for now.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Financing Deadline Slips Again as the 3Q Update Looms

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese stocks headed lower this weak on concerns about rising global interest rates and a looming recession</li>
<li>Euglena, a small cap Japanese bio-tech, has found itself as a key part of the future for biofuels and SAF. </li>
<li>Japanese Heavies are so diverse that they now fit into many thematic portfolios. KHI looks well placed in the hydrogen supply chain and carbon capture. Exciting times</li>
</ul>


Japanese stocks headed lower this weak on concerns about rising global interest rates and a looming recession
Euglena, a small cap Japanese bio-tech, has found itself as a key part of the future for biofuels and SAF. 
Japanese Heavies are so diverse that they now fit into many thematic portfolios. KHI looks well placed in the hydrogen supply chain and carbon capture. Exciting times


Japan Weekly | Euglena, Kawasaki Heavy, Monotaro

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Toshiba-buyout-JIP-led-group-secures-8.8bn-loans-from-megabanks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has secured bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion), conditional on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> selling some businesses.</li>
<li>JIP will table an offer valuing Toshiba at JPY2.2 trillion (US$16 billion). The special committee is assessing the proposal and a final decision will be made at a board meeting.</li>
<li>JIP’s next challenge is getting the committee to recommend the offer. While a potential offer of JPY5,100 is not terrible, it is well below the original bid expectation of JPY6,000.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has secured bank financing of around JPY1.2 trillion (US$8.8 billion), conditional on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) selling some businesses.
JIP will table an offer valuing Toshiba at JPY2.2 trillion (US$16 billion). The special committee is assessing the proposal and a final decision will be made at a board meeting.
JIP’s next challenge is getting the committee to recommend the offer. While a potential offer of JPY5,100 is not terrible, it is well below the original bid expectation of JPY6,000.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Securing Financing Helps Sentiment but Hurdles Remain

<ul>
<li>JIP, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>'s preferred bidder, is reported to be under pressure from co-investors to cut its offer price. Securing financing continues to be troublesome.  </li>
<li>An offer valuing Toshiba less than JPY2.2 trillion would face pushback from the special committee, let alone shareholders. There are no signs of a JIC/Bain coming to the rescue. </li>
<li>While the Toshiba/peers price ratio remains undemanding compared to historical ratios, Toshiba looks expensive vs peers on multiples. With short-term newsflow likely to be incrementally negative, remain on the sidelines.</li>
</ul>


JIP, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s preferred bidder, is reported to be under pressure from co-investors to cut its offer price. Securing financing continues to be troublesome.  
An offer valuing Toshiba less than JPY2.2 trillion would face pushback from the special committee, let alone shareholders. There are no signs of a JIC/Bain coming to the rescue. 
While the Toshiba/peers price ratio remains undemanding compared to historical ratios, Toshiba looks expensive vs peers on multiples. With short-term newsflow likely to be incrementally negative, remain on the sidelines.


Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP's Privatisation Bid Is Floundering

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>. Shorts decreased in the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Real Estate, Materials, Indsutrials and Financials sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp (6753 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pigeon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1" rel="noopener">Pigeon Corp (7956 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Health Care, Financials, Materials and Communication Services sectors while decreasing in the Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-household-health-care" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6501:1" rel="noopener">LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13494:1" rel="noopener">HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8814:1" rel="noopener">LG Electronics (066570 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oci-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1904:1" rel="noopener">Oci Co Ltd (010060 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>In Taiwan, shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quanta-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2754:1" rel="noopener">Quanta Computer (2382 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fitipower-integrated-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8712:1" rel="noopener">Fitipower Integrated Technology (4961 TT)</a> while shorts covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15350:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement (1102 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elite-semiconductor-memory-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9373:1" rel="noopener">Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (3006 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yang-ming-marine-transport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8502:1" rel="noopener">Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ta-chen-stainless-pipe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2519:1" rel="noopener">TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT)</a>.</p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group (9901 HK), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK) and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) while there was short covering on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) and Great Wall Motor (2333 HK). Shorts decreased in the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Real Estate, Materials, Indsutrials and Financials sectors.In Japan, stocks increased on Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP), Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP), Kirin Holdings (2503 JP), KDDI Corp (9433 JP) and Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) while there was short covering on Sharp Corp (6753 JP), Pigeon Corp (7956 JP), Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP), Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) and Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP). Shorts increased in the Health Care, Financials, Materials and Communication Services sectors while decreasing in the Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors.In Korea, shorts increased on LG Household &amp; Health Care (051900 KS), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS), Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS) and SK Telecom (017670 KS) while shorts were covered on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), LG Electronics (066570 KS), Oci Co Ltd (010060 KS), Naver Corp (035420 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS). In Taiwan, shorts increased on Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), Asustek Computer (2357 TT), Quanta Computer (2382 TT) and Fitipower Integrated Technology (4961 TT) while shorts covered on Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Asia Cement (1102 TT), Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (3006 TT), Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609 TT) and TA Chen Stainless Pipe (2027 TT).

Asia Shorts: Kuaishou, EDU, Fuyao, Galaxy, KDDI, Sharp, HMC, HMM, SK Tel, Naver, Novatek, Yageo

Japan

Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. designs, develops, and manufactures transport equipment and industrial heavy machinery for military and commercial use.  The Company produces ships, railroad cars, aircraft engines and parts, hydraulic and gas turbines, submarine engines, boilers, and industrial robots.  Kawasaki Heavy Industries offers engineering and construction services to industrial plants.

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Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)

Toshiba (6502 JP): Financing Deadline Slips Again as the 3Q Update Looms

The ongoing financing deadline extensions and a looming 3Q update add to the deal uncertainty. While the price ratio is undemanding, Toshiba’s...

Arun George

Japan Weekly | Euglena, Kawasaki Heavy, Monotaro

It's nearly Christmas, so Japanese equities should be rallying, but they are not. Maybe next week when everyone is on holiday. KHI, Monotaro,...

Mark Chadwick

Toshiba (6502 JP): Securing Financing Helps Sentiment but Hurdles Remain

Against all odds, JIP has secured financing which helps to support near-term positive sentiment. Securing Board and shareholder approval for the...

Arun George

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP's Privatisation Bid Is Floundering

While Toshiba/peers price ratio remains undemanding compared to historical ratios, Toshiba looks expensive vs peers on multiples. With newsflow...

Arun George

Asia Shorts: Kuaishou, EDU, Fuyao, Galaxy, KDDI, Sharp, HMC, HMM, SK Tel, Naver, Novatek, Yageo

The Insight looks at large short interest movements across HK, Japan, Korea and Taiwan stocks and highlights large increases/decreases in shorts to...

Brian Freitas

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