Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply lower. On the second day of trade post Brexit, Asian EM currencies like Rupiah and Rupee traded in a tight range thanks to Central bank selling, but PBoC fixed the Yuan at still a lower level of 6.6375 to USD. It was only last week that a level of RMB6.6: USD was considered a red line for PBoC by traders but is no longer the case. China is smartly…

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply lower. On the second day of trade post Brexit, Asian EM currencies like Rupiah and Rupee traded in a tight range thanks to Central bank selling, but PBoC fixed the Yuan at still a lower level of 6.6375 to USD. It was only last week that a level of RMB6.6: USD was considered a red line for PBoC by traders but is no longer the case. China is smartly…

China Spots Opportunity in Brexit Where Others See a Threat!

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul><li>Banks in Asia tend have five loan categories, where the last three combined are termed non-performing (NPL).</li><li>These categories are substandard, doubtful and loss.</li><li>The first category of loans is called pass, while the second is called special mention.</li><li>It is this latter category that is of interest to us here. These loans are late, but not impaired. They are not timely with payment, but not NPL.</li><li>These loans therefore have a high propensity to roll or migrate into the NPL loan category.</li><li>This is important as for some banks these loans are high compared with total NPLs. For some banks these loans are 2x or 3x higher than NPLs!</li><li>Also NPLs require far higher provisions than pass or special mention loans, and increasingly so, as they deteriorate from one category to another.</li></ul>Full report below the fold....

Banks in Asia tend have five loan categories, where the last three combined are termed non-performing (NPL).These categories are substandard, doubtful and loss.The first category of loans is called pass, while the second is called special mention.It is this latter category that is of interest to us here. These loans are late, but not impaired. They are not timely with payment, but not NPL.These loans therefore have a high propensity to roll or migrate into the NPL loan category.This is important as for some banks these loans are high compared with total NPLs. For some banks these loans are 2x or 3x higher than NPLs!Also NPLs require far higher provisions than pass or special mention loans, and increasingly so, as they deteriorate from one category to another.Full report below the fold....

Equity Bottom-Up

As tangible evidence of the woes facing Thailand, look no further than Bangkok Bank.What is especially interesting here is how the experience of this corporate lender differs from those more focused on consumer loans, such as Kasikornbank and Siam Commercial Bank.Bad loans tend to be more substantial from corporate risk rather than consumer loans, and this is coming out in spades with BBL.More details for subscribers below the fold....&nbsp;

As tangible evidence of the woes facing Thailand, look no further than Bangkok Bank.What is especially interesting here is how the experience of this corporate lender differs from those more focused on consumer loans, such as Kasikornbank and Siam Commercial Bank.Bad loans tend to be more substantial from corporate risk rather than consumer loans, and this is coming out in spades with BBL.More details for subscribers below the fold....&nbsp;

Bangkok Bank Shows the Risks of Corporate Lending

<ul><li>Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.</li><li>Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banks</li><li>Thai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.</li></ul>

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banksThai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.

South East Asian Loan Growth  - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

<ul><li>There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.</li><li>This tends to be positive for banks.</li><li>It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.</li><li>A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.</li><li>But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. </li><li>It pays to differentiate, even in a boom</li></ul>

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.This tends to be positive for banks.It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. It pays to differentiate, even in a boom

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including personal and commercial banking, international trade, as well as investment banking services, to its customers throughout Thailand.  The Bank has foreign branches in Los Angeles, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, and Shenzhen; and representative offices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Kunmin.

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Kasikornbank (KBANK/F TB)

China Spots Opportunity in Brexit Where Others See a Threat!

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply...

Asia Advisors

"Special Mention Loans" across Asia

Banks in Asia tend have five loan categories, where the last three combined are termed non-performing (NPL). These categories are substandard,...

Daniel Tabbush

Bangkok Bank Shows the Risks of Corporate Lending

As tangible evidence of the woes facing Thailand, look no further than Bangkok Bank.What is especially interesting here is how the experience of...

Daniel Tabbush

South East Asian Loan Growth - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the...

Daniel Tabbush

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again. This tends to be positive for banks. It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making...

Daniel Tabbush

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