Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank (BBL TB)</a> has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> by 33% over the last 11 months and the price ratio is nearing the high end of the historical range.</li>
<li>The number of NVDRs issued on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> have continued to increase while decreasing on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)</a> now trades at a higher forward PE as compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> and the gap in price to book has narrowed significantly.</li>
</ul>



Bangkok Bank (BBL TB) has outperformed Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) by 33% over the last 11 months and the price ratio is nearing the high end of the historical range.
The number of NVDRs issued on Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) have continued to increase while decreasing on Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB).

Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB) now trades at a higher forward PE as compared to Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) and the gap in price to book has narrowed significantly.


BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-commercial-bank-scb-x" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1" rel="noopener">Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)</a> booked a solid set of 4Q2022 results, with the first NIM expansion in two years and record high net interest income.</li>
<li>The bank also provided details of its mothership strategy, which has now come to fruition, with the restructuring process now complete with its increasingly strong digital credentials becoming clearer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-commercial-bank-scb-x" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1" rel="noopener">Siam Commercial Bank</a> remains attractive on valuations and probably deserves to trade at a premium to peers given its digital credentials but more data may be required to get there.</li>
</ul>



Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) booked a solid set of 4Q2022 results, with the first NIM expansion in two years and record high net interest income.
The bank also provided details of its mothership strategy, which has now come to fruition, with the restructuring process now complete with its increasingly strong digital credentials becoming clearer.

Siam Commercial Bank remains attractive on valuations and probably deserves to trade at a premium to peers given its digital credentials but more data may be required to get there.


Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) - Traversing Generations

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> remains one of Thailand's top-tier banks with particular strength in SME lending and consumer lending making it a beneficiary of both consumption and tourism recovery. </li>
<li>The bank continues to grow its digital banking and business through its K PLUS app which now has more than 21m users, with multiple use cases and self-apply loan applications. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank</a> remains a core holding for exposure to Thailand's tourism-driven recovery through its SME exposure. Valuations are attractive with the bank trading at 0.7x FY2023 PBV and 8.3% FY2023E ROE. </li>
</ul>



Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) remains one of Thailand's top-tier banks with particular strength in SME lending and consumer lending making it a beneficiary of both consumption and tourism recovery. 
The bank continues to grow its digital banking and business through its K PLUS app which now has more than 21m users, with multiple use cases and self-apply loan applications. 

Kasikornbank remains a core holding for exposure to Thailand's tourism-driven recovery through its SME exposure. Valuations are attractive with the bank trading at 0.7x FY2023 PBV and 8.3% FY2023E ROE. 


Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) - Replanting the Seeds of Growth

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai is our pick; it ranks top in terms of post-provision profitability, as well as screening well on NPL coverage and valuations, including its low PEG ratio</li>
<li>We also like Ayudhya, with its strong pre and post-provision profitability in 4Q22, strong credit quality metrics and attractive valuations</li>
<li>Kasikorn has had a difficult 4Q22 due to its high cost of risk and its need to bolster provision coverage; Kasikorn may be a 2023 opportunity, but not yet</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai is our pick; it ranks top in terms of post-provision profitability, as well as screening well on NPL coverage and valuations, including its low PEG ratio
We also like Ayudhya, with its strong pre and post-provision profitability in 4Q22, strong credit quality metrics and attractive valuations
Kasikorn has had a difficult 4Q22 due to its high cost of risk and its need to bolster provision coverage; Kasikorn may be a 2023 opportunity, but not yet


Thai Banks 4Q22 Screener; Krung Thai Back on Top

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, raised around US$600m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-union-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:161:1" rel="noopener">Thai Union Group (TU TB)</a>.</li>
<li>As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuation. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics</li>
</ul>


I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, raised around US$600m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB).
As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuation. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics


I-Tail Corporation IPO Trading - Should Be Able to Provide Some Holiday Cheer

Thailand

Kasikornbank Public Company Limited provides commercial banking services including personal and commercial banking, international trade, as well as investment banking services, to its customers throughout Thailand.  The Bank has foreign branches in Los Angeles, Hong Kong, Cayman Islands, and Shenzhen; and representative offices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Kunmin.

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Kasikornbank (KBANK-R TB)

BBL/KBANK: Huge Outperformance as BBL Nears NVDR Limit

BBL has outperformed KBANK by 33% over the last 11 months. The price ratio is nearing the high end of the historical range. BBL trades at a higher...

Brian Freitas

Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) - Traversing Generations

Siam Commercial Bank remains attractive on valuations and probably deserves to trade at a premium to peers given its digital credentials but more...

Angus Mackintosh

Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) - Replanting the Seeds of Growth

Kasikornbank is a core holding for exposure to Thailand's tourism-driven recovery through its SME exposure. Valuations are attractive with the bank...

Angus Mackintosh

Thai Banks 4Q22 Screener; Krung Thai Back on Top

Krung Thai ranks top in post-provision returns, screens well on NPL coverage and valuations, and its PEG; we also like Ayudhya for attractive...

Victor Galliano

I-Tail Corporation IPO Trading - Should Be Able to Provide Some Holiday Cheer

I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, raised around US$600m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB).

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

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