Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It was always a stretch that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) INR2.1 trillion could well recapitalise the main government-owned banks. At the time of that announcement, there was euphoria over the renewed and positive outlook of these ailing, fledgling government banks. And still the figures did not add up then and they add up even less now. Besides hardly covering the non-performing loans (NPLs) and restructured loans of targeted banks, the recapitalization plan did not require a change in…

It was always a stretch that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) INR2.1 trillion could well recapitalise the main government-owned banks. At the time of that announcement, there was euphoria over the renewed and positive outlook of these ailing, fledgling government banks. And still the figures did not add up then and they add up even less now. Besides hardly covering the non-performing loans (NPLs) and restructured loans of targeted banks, the recapitalization plan did not require a change in…

India – Recap Euphoria, Going, Going, Gone

India’s economy continues to slow. Yet, many of India’s banks are expanding credit aggressively. The risk is that new debtors are not expecting a protracted deceleration in the overall economy – or more succinctly, their revenue, their income. Loan seasoning risks are highest with some of the safest banks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/558" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1">HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN)</a> stands out.India’s real GDP growth for June 2017 came in at 5.7%. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of deceleration in the pace of growth.  This is fine, and…

India’s economy continues to slow. Yet, many of India’s banks are expanding credit aggressively. The risk is that new debtors are not expecting a protracted deceleration in the overall economy – or more succinctly, their revenue, their income. Loan seasoning risks are highest with some of the safest banks. HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCB IN) stands out.India’s real GDP growth for June 2017 came in at 5.7%. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of deceleration in the pace of growth.  This is fine, and…

Fast Growing Banks, Amidst Slowing Growth: India

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

The collapse of lending in India remains well in place in January where annual growth is running at an anemic 3.3%. This is the same as in December last year, and lower than in November. To us, it does not feel like India is anywhere near a post-demonetization boom in credit, as some are expecting. The reality is that companies will see more stress, economic growth will worsen, and banks will face greater NPLs. India – Credit growth (% ch YoY)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/022/174/original/daniel%201.png?1488984550" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="22174"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: CEIC</div>What may be more of a surprise is that…

The collapse of lending in India remains well in place in January where annual growth is running at an anemic 3.3%. This is the same as in December last year, and lower than in November. To us, it does not feel like India is anywhere near a post-demonetization boom in credit, as some are expecting. The reality is that companies will see more stress, economic growth will worsen, and banks will face greater NPLs. India – Credit growth (% ch YoY)Source: CEICWhat may be more of a surprise is that…

India's Lending Is Still Painfully Low in January

Since India’s demonetization, the government has lowered GDP forecasts, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled a less accommodative stance, and the proposed recapitazliation of ailing public sector banks is being curtailed. Perhaps there will be less flow-through on the budget in execution, timing and magnitude? High non-performing loans and cratering loan growth was a feature of India’s banks before all of the above, and we believe these will remain front and center still.  We include several…

Since India’s demonetization, the government has lowered GDP forecasts, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled a less accommodative stance, and the proposed recapitazliation of ailing public sector banks is being curtailed. Perhaps there will be less flow-through on the budget in execution, timing and magnitude? High non-performing loans and cratering loan growth was a feature of India’s banks before all of the above, and we believe these will remain front and center still.  We include several…

Anecdotes from India Mirror Poor Optimism: Bank Risk Remains

India

Karnataka Bank Ltd is a full-service bank. The Bank accepts deposits, makes loans and provides other services for the public.

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Karnataka Bank (KBL IN)

India – Recap Euphoria, Going, Going, Gone

It was always a stretch that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) INR2.1 trillion could well recapitalise the main government-owned banks. At the time...

Daniel Tabbush

Fast Growing Banks, Amidst Slowing Growth: India

India’s economy continues to slow. Yet, many of India’s banks are expanding credit aggressively. The risk is that new debtors are not expecting a...

Daniel Tabbush

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the...

Hemindra Hazari

India's Lending Is Still Painfully Low in January

The collapse of lending in India remains well in place in January where annual growth is running at an anemic 3.3%. This is the same as in December...

Daniel Tabbush

Anecdotes from India Mirror Poor Optimism: Bank Risk Remains

Since India’s demonetization, the government has lowered GDP forecasts, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled a less accommodative stance, and the...

Daniel Tabbush

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