Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

The renminbi, rupee, peso and rupiah are getting hammered but currencies across Asia ex Japan have lost value against the mighty US dollar over the last few weeks. Even the Hong Kong dollar has fallen to the weak end of the HK$/US$7.75-7.85 trading band. Currency markets are as we know notoriously volatile. At the best of times a month or two of data do not constitute a trend, let alone a few weeks/days of market action. There are several questions investors need to ask themselves before…

The renminbi, rupee, peso and rupiah are getting hammered but currencies across Asia ex Japan have lost value against the mighty US dollar over the last few weeks. Even the Hong Kong dollar has fallen to the weak end of the HK$/US$7.75-7.85 trading band. Currency markets are as we know notoriously volatile. At the best of times a month or two of data do not constitute a trend, let alone a few weeks/days of market action. There are several questions investors need to ask themselves before…

Asian Currencies - Only Rupee, Rupiah & Peso Weakness Justified

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

With its central banks' net foreign assets below zero for the past three months, and external debt equal to nearly 400% of annual goods exports, Pakistan urgently needs a new IMF rescue package (or a similar package from one of China's development banks). But neither will want to negotiate a large loan with a caretaker government, so any rescue is unlikely before end-July (following the 25th July election). We recommend that investors should switch out of Pakistan to Bangladesh (a frontier…

With its central banks' net foreign assets below zero for the past three months, and external debt equal to nearly 400% of annual goods exports, Pakistan urgently needs a new IMF rescue package (or a similar package from one of China's development banks). But neither will want to negotiate a large loan with a caretaker government, so any rescue is unlikely before end-July (following the 25th July election). We recommend that investors should switch out of Pakistan to Bangladesh (a frontier…

Pakistan: A Full Blown Crisis Ahead of Elections, Implying a Large IMF or China Rescue Is Needed

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) earlier today announced the results of the May 2018 Semi‐Annual Index Review for the MSCI Equity Indexes.</li>
<li>While there was no change in the MSCI Global Standard Indexes, MSCI has removed Pak Elektron (PAEL), National Refinery (NRL) and IGI Holdings Limited (IGIHL) from the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes. All changes will be implemented from the close of May 31, 2018.</li>
<li>Other development coinciding with the index review is the partial inclusion of China A…</li>
</ul>


Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) earlier today announced the results of the May 2018 Semi‐Annual Index Review for the MSCI Equity Indexes.
While there was no change in the MSCI Global Standard Indexes, MSCI has removed Pak Elektron (PAEL), National Refinery (NRL) and IGI Holdings Limited (IGIHL) from the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes. All changes will be implemented from the close of May 31, 2018.
Other development coinciding with the index review is the partial inclusion of China A…


Flash Note: Pakistan Market: Pak Weight in EM to Slightly Fall Post China A Shares Inclusion

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has already tapped the Silk Road Fund and it is intended to produce a “network of railways, roads and pipelines connecting Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar with the Chinese city of Kashgar”. Gwadar features prominently in the maritime strategy and is also the ultimate destination of CPEC. As a driver of world trade growth, China is the new global powerhouse. The recent tax amnesty, in a bid to push activity into the formal economy, is yet another positive for Pakistan. If you are looking for a investment trade in BRI you could do worse than to buy it.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has already tapped the Silk Road Fund and it is intended to produce a “network of railways, roads and pipelines connecting Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar with the Chinese city of Kashgar”. Gwadar features prominently in the maritime strategy and is also the ultimate destination of CPEC. As a driver of world trade growth, China is the new global powerhouse. The recent tax amnesty, in a bid to push activity into the formal economy, is yet another positive for Pakistan. If you are looking for a investment trade in BRI you could do worse than to buy it. 

Pakistan Tax Changes – Another Positive

<ul>
<li>As per our channel checks, Pak Rupee has devalued by 3.0% in early hours of the interbank market today. It was trading at around Rs114 compared to yesterday’s closing rate of Rs110.58. To recall, the govt. had devalued the Pak Rupee by around 5% on December 8, 2017. During the last 10 years, Pak Rupee has devalued annually by 5%.</li>
<li>We believe this is much needed as Pakistan’s external account has deteriorated as of late. During FY17, Pakistan posted current account deficit (CAD) of US$12.2bn (4% of…</li>
</ul>


As per our channel checks, Pak Rupee has devalued by 3.0% in early hours of the interbank market today. It was trading at around Rs114 compared to yesterday’s closing rate of Rs110.58. To recall, the govt. had devalued the Pak Rupee by around 5% on December 8, 2017. During the last 10 years, Pak Rupee has devalued annually by 5%.
We believe this is much needed as Pakistan’s external account has deteriorated as of late. During FY17, Pakistan posted current account deficit (CAD) of US$12.2bn (4% of…


Flash Note: Pakistan Market: Pak Rupee Devalues in Interbank Market

Pakistan

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (fka Karachi Stock Exchange) KSE100 Index comprises the top company from each of the 34 sectors on the PSX, in terms of market capitalization. The rest of the companies are picked on market cap ranking, without any consideration for the sector to make a sample of 100 common stocks with base value 1,000. This is a total return index.

Karachi Stock Exchange Kse100 Index (KSE100 INDEX)

Karachi Stock Exchange Kse100 Index (KSE100 INDEX)

Asian Currencies - Only Rupee, Rupiah & Peso Weakness Justified

The renminbi, rupee, peso and rupiah are getting hammered but currencies across Asia ex Japan have lost value against the mighty US dollar over the...

Sharmila Whelan

Pakistan: A Full Blown Crisis Ahead of Elections, Implying a Large IMF or China Rescue Is Needed

With its central banks' net foreign assets below zero for the past three months, and external debt equal to nearly 400% of annual goods exports,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Flash Note: Pakistan Market: Pak Weight in EM to Slightly Fall Post China A Shares Inclusion

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) earlier today announced the results of the May 2018 Semi‐Annual Index Review for the MSCI Equity...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Tax Changes – Another Positive

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has already tapped the Silk Road Fund and it is intended to produce a “network of railways, roads and...

Dr. Jim Walker

Flash Note: Pakistan Market: Pak Rupee Devalues in Interbank Market

As per our channel checks, Pak Rupee has devalued by 3.0% in early hours of the interbank market today. It was trading at around Rs114 compared to...

Topline Securities