Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class=""><li>Consumer Durables- Excellent April and May drives beat.</li><li>Paints- De-stocking impacts volumes, GST’s anti-profiteering clause puts lid on near-term price hikes.</li><li>Consumer electrical- Severely impacted by channel de-stocking; restocking and price hikes will be gradual.</li><li>Footwear- Strong growth after a lackluster FY17 but margins hurt.</li></ul>

Consumer Durables- Excellent April and May drives beat.Paints- De-stocking impacts volumes, GST’s anti-profiteering clause puts lid on near-term price hikes.Consumer electrical- Severely impacted by channel de-stocking; restocking and price hikes will be gradual.Footwear- Strong growth after a lackluster FY17 but margins hurt.

India Consumer Discretionary: Key Takeaways from 1QFY18 Result (Part 1/2)

<p><strong>1QFY18 impact in the run up to GST implementation</strong></p><ul class="">
<li>Consumer electrical leader <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9158" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1">Havells India Ltd (HAVL IN)</a> saw single digit revenue growth and sharp reduction in operating margins as (1) the channel destocked 40-50% of the 45-60 day inventory, (2) it was unable to take the requisite price hikes to offset increase in input cost.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13828" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1">Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN)</a> reported flat volume YoY after +4% volume growth in 4QFY17. It said rural channel was more impacted than urban resulting in decline in rural…</li>
</ul>

1QFY18 impact in the run up to GST implementation
Consumer electrical leader Havells India Ltd (HAVL IN) saw single digit revenue growth and sharp reduction in operating margins as (1) the channel destocked 40-50% of the 45-60 day inventory, (2) it was unable to take the requisite price hikes to offset increase in input cost.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUVR IN) reported flat volume YoY after +4% volume growth in 4QFY17. It said rural channel was more impacted than urban resulting in decline in rural…


India: GST's Impact on 1QFY18 Corporate Performance

<ul><li>Durables- Mostly pent up demand fulfillment and channel filling, margins under pressure</li><li>Paints- Demand still weak, price hikes delayed but margins likely to sustain in FY18</li><li>Home improvement- Pent up demand helps but pricing and margins under pressure</li><li>Footwear- Intense competition leads to muted volume growth, no price hikes to pass on input cost increase</li></ul>

Durables- Mostly pent up demand fulfillment and channel filling, margins under pressurePaints- Demand still weak, price hikes delayed but margins likely to sustain in FY18Home improvement- Pent up demand helps but pricing and margins under pressureFootwear- Intense competition leads to muted volume growth, no price hikes to pass on input cost increase

India Consumer Discretionary: Key Takeaways from 4QFY17 Performance

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not. Overall there were approx. 20% more downgrades than upgrades over the last 2 weeks.</p><h2>% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/024/226/original/1.png?1492102101" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="24226"></figure><div class="content-caption"><strong>Source: Custom Products</strong></div><p>Taiwan and India had the most upgrades relative to total recommendations in the last two weeks. In Taiwan, 37 names had a least 1 upgrade. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/745" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1">Hon Hai</a>…</p>

We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not. Overall there were approx. 20% more downgrades than upgrades over the last 2 weeks.% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)Source: Custom ProductsTaiwan and India had the most upgrades relative to total recommendations in the last two weeks. In Taiwan, 37 names had a least 1 upgrade. Hon Hai…

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan (Last 2 Weeks)

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

<p>Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…</p>

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

India

Kansai Nerolac Paints Limited manufactures paints, varnishes and enamels. The Company also fabricates synthetic resins, organic & inorganic pigments and oils. Kansai Nerolac's products are used for decorative, marine and industrial purposes.

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Kansai Nerolac Paints (KNPL IN)

India Consumer Discretionary: Key Takeaways from 1QFY18 Result (Part 1/2)

Consumer Durables- Excellent April and May drives beat. Paints- De-stocking impacts volumes, GST’s anti-profiteering clause puts lid on near-term...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

India: GST's Impact on 1QFY18 Corporate Performance

1QFY18 impact in the run up to GST implementation Consumer electrical leader Havells India Ltd (HAVL IN) saw single digit revenue growth and sharp...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

India Consumer Discretionary: Key Takeaways from 4QFY17 Performance

Durables- Mostly pent up demand fulfillment and channel filling, margins under pressure Paints- Demand still weak, price hikes delayed but margins...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan (Last 2 Weeks)

We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors /...

Custom Products Group

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

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