Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

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Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Kansai Paint continues to enjoy strong results in India where subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10169" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10169:1">Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd (KNPL IN)</a> has seen revenue double since 2011 and where net income is set to double relative to FY03/15. With Kansai Nerolac's PE approaching 50x, Kansai Paint's 75% stake is now worth JPY327bn or 45% of the company's JPY722bn market cap. While Kansai Paint's Indian operations have seen OP grow at a 31% CAGR since 4QFY03/14 we nevertheless feel that its subsidiary's inflated multiple represents a downside risk as our analysis suggests that Kansai Paint's valuation is directly impacted by the valuation of Kansai Nerolac.</p><p>The company has faced several headwinds this year as a crackdown on pollution in China has impacted solvent-based coatings and raw materials costs have pressured margins globally and caused losses in Africa. We believe that these issues should be resolved over the medium-term and should open up further opportunities for the company to increase profitability.</p>

Kansai Paint continues to enjoy strong results in India where subsidiary Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd (KNPL IN) has seen revenue double since 2011 and where net income is set to double relative to FY03/15. With Kansai Nerolac's PE approaching 50x, Kansai Paint's 75% stake is now worth JPY327bn or 45% of the company's JPY722bn market cap. While Kansai Paint's Indian operations have seen OP grow at a 31% CAGR since 4QFY03/14 we nevertheless feel that its subsidiary's inflated multiple represents a downside risk as our analysis suggests that Kansai Paint's valuation is directly impacted by the valuation of Kansai Nerolac.The company has faced several headwinds this year as a crackdown on pollution in China has impacted solvent-based coatings and raw materials costs have pressured margins globally and caused losses in Africa. We believe that these issues should be resolved over the medium-term and should open up further opportunities for the company to increase profitability.

Kansai Paint: India Drives Growth But Kansai Nerolac's 50x PE Is Also a Risk