Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in September and October 2024.</li>
<li>On average, the share buyback announcements by 25 companies represented 1.9% of their outstanding shares.</li>
<li>Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Celltrion, Kangwon Land, and Naver. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in September and October 2024.
On average, the share buyback announcements by 25 companies represented 1.9% of their outstanding shares.
Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Celltrion, Kangwon Land, and Naver. 


Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (September and October 2024)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.</li>
<li>A quarter of the way through the review period, we forecast 37 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Four downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, three more downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
A quarter of the way through the review period, we forecast 37 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
Four downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, three more downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.


KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kangwon Land has received approval to expand its total casino area from 14,512 square metres previously to 20,260 square metres (up 40%). </li>
<li>The betting limits in the foreign players only zone will increase significantly from 300,000 won (about US$225) to 300 million won (about US$225,000). This represents a 1000x increase.</li>
<li>We would argue that there is a high probability of Kangwon Land benefiting not just from higher sales and profits but also from higher valuation multiples. </li>
</ul>


Kangwon Land has received approval to expand its total casino area from 14,512 square metres previously to 20,260 square metres (up 40%). 
The betting limits in the foreign players only zone will increase significantly from 300,000 won (about US$225) to 300 million won (about US$225,000). This represents a 1000x increase.
We would argue that there is a high probability of Kangwon Land benefiting not just from higher sales and profits but also from higher valuation multiples. 


Kangwon Land: Regulatory Improvements to Result in Higher Earnings and Valuation Multiples Expansion

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>For this September reshuffle, fewer factors affected price impact, so outlier chances were low. Biggest price moves typically occur 30 days before the effective date, especially during LARGE↔MID transitions.</li>
<li>Early positioning for this reshuffle paid off. Past trends suggest price action fades before the effective date, so consider exiting positions by tomorrow or early next week.</li>
<li>Small→Mid migrants historically show weak price impacts, with no clear correlation observed in this September reshuffle either. I'm avoiding those plays targeting the effective date for now.</li>
</ul>


For this September reshuffle, fewer factors affected price impact, so outlier chances were low. Biggest price moves typically occur 30 days before the effective date, especially during LARGE↔MID transitions.
Early positioning for this reshuffle paid off. Past trends suggest price action fades before the effective date, so consider exiting positions by tomorrow or early next week.
Small→Mid migrants historically show weak price impacts, with no clear correlation observed in this September reshuffle either. I'm avoiding those plays targeting the effective date for now.


KOSPI Size Index Reshuffle Results Out Late Today: Early Positioning Delivered Big Gains

<ul>
<li>The September KOSPI Size Index rebalancing could bring back the typical price impacts seen over the past decade, unlike the March rebalancing.</li>
<li>The previous rebalancing had anomalies due to newly listed stocks in LARGE and a stronger downward trend in LARGE-to-MID transitions, disrupting the expected price impact.</li>
<li>For September's rebalancing, fewer distortions are expected compared to March. The NPS Mid to Small Cap fund, a key influence, shows no significant changes in benchmark or AUM.</li>
</ul>


The September KOSPI Size Index rebalancing could bring back the typical price impacts seen over the past decade, unlike the March rebalancing.
The previous rebalancing had anomalies due to newly listed stocks in LARGE and a stronger downward trend in LARGE-to-MID transitions, disrupting the expected price impact.
For September's rebalancing, fewer distortions are expected compared to March. The NPS Mid to Small Cap fund, a key influence, shows no significant changes in benchmark or AUM.


Examining the September Reshuffle of the KOSPI Size Index Series

South Korea

Kangwon Land Inc. is a casino and hotel services provider located in the Kangwon province area of South Korea.  The Company develops abandoned mines and builds gaming and entertainment facilities.  Kangwon Land operates a number of game tables and slot machines for domestic and international customers under its gaming licenses.

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Kangwon Land (035250 KS)

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations

There could be 37 migrations for the KOSPI Size indices in March, plus 1 LargeCap and 3 MidCap inclusions. The MidCap to LargeCap migrations have...

Brian Freitas

Kangwon Land: Regulatory Improvements to Result in Higher Earnings and Valuation Multiples Expansion

Kangwon Land has received approval to expand its total casino area and sharply increase betting limits for foreigners by 1000x.

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Index Reshuffle Results Out Late Today: Early Positioning Delivered Big Gains

This post details the official results of the September KOSPI Size Index reshuffle, released late today, and analyzes the significant gains...

Sanghyun Park

Examining the September Reshuffle of the KOSPI Size Index Series

This post examines the potential for flow trading setups targeting the September rebalancing of the KOSPI Size Index Series.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (September and October 2024)

In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in September and...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations

There could be 37 migrations for the KOSPI Size indices in March, plus 1 LargeCap and 3 MidCap inclusions. The MidCap to LargeCap migrations have...

Brian Freitas

Kangwon Land: Regulatory Improvements to Result in Higher Earnings and Valuation Multiples Expansion

Kangwon Land has received approval to expand its total casino area and sharply increase betting limits for foreigners by 1000x.

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Index Reshuffle Results Out Late Today: Early Positioning Delivered Big Gains

This post details the official results of the September KOSPI Size Index reshuffle, released late today, and analyzes the significant gains...

Sanghyun Park

Examining the September Reshuffle of the KOSPI Size Index Series

This post examines the potential for flow trading setups targeting the September rebalancing of the KOSPI Size Index Series.

Sanghyun Park