ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> represents one of the most interesting plays on people and goods mobility and end-to-end logistics in Indonesia, being market leaders in auto leasing and auctions.</li>
<li>Revenues slowed in 9M2023 due to a slowdown in Anteraja because of slower e-commerce but other areas saw strong growth, especially its auction and used car business.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada</a> continues to build its renamed Cargoshare end-to-end logistics business with new customers and a move into cold chain logistics. Valuations are attractive relative to growth.</li>
</ul>



Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) represents one of the most interesting plays on people and goods mobility and end-to-end logistics in Indonesia, being market leaders in auto leasing and auctions.
Revenues slowed in 9M2023 due to a slowdown in Anteraja because of slower e-commerce but other areas saw strong growth, especially its auction and used car business.

Adi Sarana Armada continues to build its renamed Cargoshare end-to-end logistics business with new customers and a move into cold chain logistics. Valuations are attractive relative to growth.


Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - Leading Player in People and Goods Mobility

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Past week saw insights of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia (PRDA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pyridam-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12900:1" rel="noopener">Pyridam Farma (PYFA IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>The was also an insight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thonburi-healthcare-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24386:1" rel="noopener">Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB)</a> and a sector piece looking at the beleaguered Vietnamese Real Estate sector. </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The Past week saw insights of Prodia (PRDA IJ), Grab Holdings (GRAB US), XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ), Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), and Pyridam Farma (PYFA IJ).
The was also an insight on Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB) and a sector piece looking at the beleaguered Vietnamese Real Estate sector. 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Prodia's Recovery, Grab in 2024, and Kalbe Farma Primed

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>With the FMCG market having sound growth prospects, we estimate FY24F growth of 7% yoy.</li><li>Some categories still showed promising growth in 3Q23, despite the market’s overall volume contraction.</li><li>We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

With the FMCG market having sound growth prospects, we estimate FY24F growth of 7% yoy.Some categories still showed promising growth in 3Q23, despite the market’s overall volume contraction.We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: Room for Growth Is Still in Store (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>We expect more provision for social aid and the festive events in 1H24 to cushion soft purchasing power recovery amid modest wage hikes.</li><li>We forecast FY24 net profit growth for the sector of 10.6% yoy (core profits: +5% yoy) supported by sales volume recovery (3-9%).</li><li>We maintain sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under soft recovery scenario.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect more provision for social aid and the festive events in 1H24 to cushion soft purchasing power recovery amid modest wage hikes.We forecast FY24 net profit growth for the sector of 10.6% yoy (core profits: +5% yoy) supported by sales volume recovery (3-9%).We maintain sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under soft recovery scenario.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer: Festive events in 1H24 and higher social aid to cushion soft recovery in FY24 (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>We are turning more cautious on KLBF’s FY23-25F EPS growth as we see threat for its branded prescription drugs from the persisting rising trend of hospital patients visits from JKN patients in 9M23 (17% CAGR in 2014-22).</li><li>Against this headwind, we project a lower FY24F earnings growth of 2.9% yoy (21-27% cut in FY23-25F est.) and cut our rating to HOLD with a lower TP of IDR1,600.</li><li>Hospital operators MIKA, HEAL and SILO have reported further increase in revenue portion from JKN patients in 9M23, continuing the trend from the past few years (data shown by National Health Program/ BPJS that showed 17% CAGR in 2014-22 (34% in FY22) increase in total number of visits by JKN patients to healthcare facilities.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are turning more cautious on KLBF’s FY23-25F EPS growth as we see threat for its branded prescription drugs from the persisting rising trend of hospital patients visits from JKN patients in 9M23 (17% CAGR in 2014-22).Against this headwind, we project a lower FY24F earnings growth of 2.9% yoy (21-27% cut in FY23-25F est.) and cut our rating to HOLD with a lower TP of IDR1,600.Hospital operators MIKA, HEAL and SILO have reported further increase in revenue portion from JKN patients in 9M23, continuing the trend from the past few years (data shown by National Health Program/ BPJS that showed 17% CAGR in 2014-22 (34% in FY22) increase in total number of visits by JKN patients to healthcare facilities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - Persisting Headwind in FY24 from Shifting Industry Trend

Indonesia

PT Kalbe Farma Tbk produces and develops pharmaceutical products for human and animal healthcare.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the pharmaceutical, health food, and packaging industries.

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Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - Leading Player in People and Goods Mobility

Adi Sarana Armada represents one of the most interesting plays on people and goods mobility and end-to-end logistics in Indonesia, being the market...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Prodia's Recovery, Grab in 2024, and Kalbe Farma Primed

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Consumer: Room for Growth Is Still in Store (OVERWEIGHT)

We maintain our sector OW rating and expect ICBP (TP Rp13,000) and MYOR (TP Rp3,500) to fare better under a soft recovery scenario.

BRI Danareksa Research

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - Persisting Headwind in FY24 from Shifting Industry Trend

Against this headwind, we project a lower FY24F earnings growth of 2.9% yoy (21-27% cut in FY23-25F est.) and cut our rating to HOLD with a lower...

BRI Danareksa Research

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