Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Major pressure on net interest income where deposits are growing much faster than loans in the past six months, especially with term deposits, is creating major NIM contraction</li>
<li>Earnings may disappoint based on weakening net interest income, weakening margins, and where the overlay is far higher credit costs; from KRW17bn to KRW59bn in 2 yrs to 2Q23</li>
<li>Operating costs are not helping to support ROA and with a new virtual bank investment in Thailand, costs can remain high; fixing operational risks can also keep costs high.</li>
</ul>


Major pressure on net interest income where deposits are growing much faster than loans in the past six months, especially with term deposits, is creating major NIM contraction
Earnings may disappoint based on weakening net interest income, weakening margins, and where the overlay is far higher credit costs; from KRW17bn to KRW59bn in 2 yrs to 2Q23
Operating costs are not helping to support ROA and with a new virtual bank investment in Thailand, costs can remain high; fixing operational risks can also keep costs high.


KakaoBank - Term Deposits +47% | Net Int Inc/Assets -80bps | Provisions: 10% to 23% of Net Int Inc

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">Vng (VNG US)</a>, Vietnam’s leading internet platform, aims to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO.</li>
<li>VNG is Vietnam’s leading homegrown digital ecosystem, as per the company, with diverse product offerings across games, communications and media, fintech and other opportunities</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Vng (VNG US), Vietnam’s leading internet platform, aims to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO.
VNG is Vietnam’s leading homegrown digital ecosystem, as per the company, with diverse product offerings across games, communications and media, fintech and other opportunities
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


VNG Pre-IPO - The Positives - Vietnam's Mini-Tencent

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>The IPO space saw a few pops this week, some were somewhat justifiable in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbfc-finance-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36713:1" rel="noopener">SBFC Finance Limited</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/concord-biotech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36267:1" rel="noopener">Concord Biotech</a> while one was reminisent of the 2020-21 frenzy,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast</a>. </li>
<li>In the placement space, the selldown for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> materialised as expected but despite that the deal didn't do much.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
The IPO space saw a few pops this week, some were somewhat justifiable in SBFC Finance Limited and Concord Biotech while one was reminisent of the 2020-21 frenzy,  Vinfast. 
In the placement space, the selldown for InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) materialised as expected but despite that the deal didn't do much.


ECM Weekly (20th August 2023) - Indigo, Vinfast, SBFC, Concord, Wuxi, NSDL, LianLian, Fedbank

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>We believe the added threat from Apple Pay has been one of the reasons for the worsening profit margins and lower than expected sales growth of Kakao Pay in 2Q23. </li>
<li>After the poor earnings results in 2Q 2023,the consensus is likely to reduce Kakao Pay's sales estimate in 2024 by 3-5% and positive operating profit to be postponed to 2025. </li>
<li>We continue to be Bearish on Kakao Pay due to its high valuations, likelihood of consensus earnings downgrades, heightened competition, and concerns about continued profit margin weakness.   </li>
</ul>


We believe the added threat from Apple Pay has been one of the reasons for the worsening profit margins and lower than expected sales growth of Kakao Pay in 2Q23. 
After the poor earnings results in 2Q 2023,the consensus is likely to reduce Kakao Pay's sales estimate in 2024 by 3-5% and positive operating profit to be postponed to 2025. 
We continue to be Bearish on Kakao Pay due to its high valuations, likelihood of consensus earnings downgrades, heightened competition, and concerns about continued profit margin weakness.   


Kakao Pay: Worsening Profit Margins Due to Heightened Competition

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">PCOMP INDEX</a> in August.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.</li>
<li>There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the PCOMP INDEX in August.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), STAR50 INDEX, the NIFTY family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.
There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

South Korea

Kakao Pay Corp. operates financial businesses. The Company provides online payment, currency encryption, and other services. Kakao Pay conducts businesses in South Korea.

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Kakaopay (377300 KS)

KakaoBank - Term Deposits +47% | Net Int Inc/Assets -80bps | Provisions: 10% to 23% of Net Int Inc

Major net interest income pressure, NIM down sharply in past 6 months. Operating costs not supporting ROA. Credit metrics worsening: LLP from 10%...

Daniel Tabbush

VNG Pre-IPO - The Positives - Vietnam's Mini-Tencent

Vng (VNG US), Vietnam’s leading internet platform, aims to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO. In this note we talk about the positive aspects of...

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (20th August 2023) - Indigo, Vinfast, SBFC, Concord, Wuxi, NSDL, LianLian, Fedbank

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Kakao Pay: Worsening Profit Margins Due to Heightened Competition

We believe the added threat from Apple Pay has been one of the reasons for the worsening profit margins and lower than expected sales growth of...

Douglas Kim

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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