Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>The last day of Krafton's bookbuilding? Well, it was really a crazy day.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<h2><strong>A suspicious rumor circulated at noon yesterday</strong></h2>
<p><strong>First of all, at noon yesterday, a rumor circulated among local institutions through the messenger mainly used by institutions.</strong></p>
<p><em>Previously, Yahoo Messenger was the main medium for circulating all sorts of rumors and stories between local institutional investors. But after the Yahoo Messenger service was terminated, NateOn is mainly used now.</em></p>
<p><strong>The content of this rumor was somewhat provocative. The rumor said that the bankers are currently holding an emergency meeting due to the low competition rate for institutional subscriptions in the Krafton bookbuilding.</strong></p>
<p><strong>When Mirae Asset Securities learned that this rumor was circulating through NateOn, it immediately denied it, which led to an unusual situation where a banker updated the bookbuilding progress even before bookbuilding was closed.</strong></p>
<p>In fact, Mirae Asset explained to local institutions yesterday afternoon that this Krafton bookbuilding was significantly more positive than initially expected and that the rumor of holding an emergency meeting due to the disastrous results simply was not true.</p>
<p>However, it is said that this rumor has caused confusion among some local institutions and has had some effect on the institutional subscription rate on the last day.</p>
</div>

The last day of Krafton's bookbuilding? Well, it was really a crazy day.
A suspicious rumor circulated at noon yesterday
First of all, at noon yesterday, a rumor circulated among local institutions through the messenger mainly used by institutions.
Previously, Yahoo Messenger was the main medium for circulating all sorts of rumors and stories between local institutional investors. But after the Yahoo Messenger service was terminated, NateOn is mainly used now.
The content of this rumor was somewhat provocative. The rumor said that the bankers are currently holding an emergency meeting due to the low competition rate for institutional subscriptions in the Krafton bookbuilding.
When Mirae Asset Securities learned that this rumor was circulating through NateOn, it immediately denied it, which led to an unusual situation where a banker updated the bookbuilding progress even before bookbuilding was closed.
In fact, Mirae Asset explained to local institutions yesterday afternoon that this Krafton bookbuilding was significantly more positive than initially expected and that the rumor of holding an emergency meeting due to the disastrous results simply was not true.
However, it is said that this rumor has caused confusion among some local institutions and has had some effect on the institutional subscription rate on the last day.


Krafton Bookbuilding: A Quick Recap of Last Day Craziness

Kakao Bank's bookbuilding results are out. As already leaked to the market earlier today, the offering price got finalized at ₩39,000, the upper end of the indicative price band, implying a market cap of ₩18.6T. There is no change in the offering volume.







Indicative price band
Low
High (Final)


Price
₩33,000
₩39,000


Base deal size
₩2,159.9B
₩2,552.6B


- Institutional allotment
₩1,187.9B
₩1,403.9B


Implied market cap
₩15,766.5B
₩18,633.1B


- Discount
31.33%
18.85%


Equity, including capital inflow from IPO
₩5,009.4B
₩5,402.1B


Capital inflow from IPO
₩2,159.9B
₩2,552.6B

Source: DART

The institutional subscription competition rate is 1,733 to 1, only slightly below the record holder SKIET's 1,883 to 1.









Name
Ticker
IPO date
Offering size
Institutional subscription competition rate


Kakao Bank
323410
2021. 08. 05
₩2,552.6B
1,732.83 to 1


SD Biosensor
361610
2021. 07. 16
₩776.4B
1,143.76 to 1


SK IE Technology
361610
2021. 05. 11
₩2,246.0B
1,882.88 to 1


SK Bioscience Co Ltd
302440
2021. 03. 18
₩1,491.8B
1,274.50 to 1


HYBE Co Ltd
352820
2020. 10. 15
₩962.6B
1,117.00 to 1


Kakao Games Corp
293490
2020. 09. 10
₩384.0B
1,478.50 to 1


SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd
326030
2020. 07. 02
₩959.3B
835.00 to 1

Source: DART


₩2.433 quadrillion (thousand trillion) worth of subscription orders were poured into the bookbuilding. How large is this? Well, Kakao Bank's total value of subscription orders surpassed SKIET's ₩2.417 quad, which was the largest amount in history for an IPO in Korea.
Compared to SD Biosensor, which was an IPO just before this listing, the participation of local institutional investors (local investment advisories and hedge funds) who are active in short-term trading was higher in this listing. It can be inferred that many investors believe that the short-term share price of Kakao Bank is more likely to rise immediately after listing.










By investor type
Institution
%
Demand
%


Local publicly raised funds
581
34.85%
25,201,600,000
40.40%


Local brokerages/investment advisories
258
15.48%
11,597,306,000
18.59%


Local pensions, funds managing proprietary assets, banks, and insurance companies
243
14.58%
9,949,064,000
15.95%


Local others (mostly discretionary investment companies - local hedge funds)
205
12.30%
8,444,119,000
13.54%


Foreign (foreign IPO funds &amp; hedge funds)
194
11.64%
1,364,938,000
2.19%


Foreign others (mostly local hot money)
186
11.16%
5,820,409,000
9.33%


Total
1,667
100.00%
62,377,436,000
100.00%


Subscription rate
1,732.83

Source: DART


The "Unspecified" category usually indicates that they want the shares above the high end. With that in mind, more than half must have priced Kakao Bank at the upper end or above. The remaining 46.01% went for a 75-100% of the upper end, so it isn't that far either.










By price
Institution
%
Demand
%


Above high end
640
38.39%
26,259,108,000
42.10%


75-100% of high end
767
46.01%
32,312,440,000
51.80%


50-75% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of high end
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


75-100% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


50-75% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


25-50% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


0-25% of median
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Low end or below
0
0.00%
0
0.00%


Unspecified
260
15.60%
3,805,888,000
6.10%


Total
1,667
100.00%
62,377,436,000
100.00%

Source: DART




Kakao Bank Bookbuilding Results: Disclosing Subscription/Lockup Orders in Detail

<p><strong>Kakao Bank's official bookbuilding results will be released after the market closes this afternoon. However, most of the important information has already been leaked to the market.</strong></p><p>First, more than ₩2,500T of subscription orders were poured into the bookbuilding. In addition, it was confirmed that the competition ratio of institutional investors for subscriptions was over 1,700 to 1. The competition ratio of 1,000 to 1 was already recorded on the first day, and a significant number of subscriptions were made on the second day as well.</p><p>The total value of subscription orders surpassed SKIET's ₩2,417T, which was the largest amount in history for an IPO in Korea.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>As a result, the offering price was also almost decided at ₩39,000, which is the upper end of the indicative price band.</strong></p></div><p> The market capitalization based on ₩39,000 is ₩18.6T. This is close to that of KB Financial Group (₩21.6T) and Shinhan Financial Group (₩19.9T). So, it is likely that Kakao Bank will become the largest market cap bank in Korea after its listing.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market cap"}'>Market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KB Financial Group Inc"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>KB Financial Group</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Shinhan Financial Group</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Kakao Bank"}'>Kakao Bank</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"105560"}' data-sheets-formula='="105560"'>105560</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"055550"}' data-sheets-formula='="055550"'>055550</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"323410"}' data-sheets-formula='="323410"'>323410</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market cap"}'><strong>Market cap</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":21580.431048}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[-1]C[0], "shares")*googlefinance(R[-1]C[0], "price")/1000000000'><strong>₩21,580.4B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":19940.7427844}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[-1]C[0], "shares")*googlefinance(R[-1]C[0], "price")/1000000000'><strong>₩19,940.7B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"₩18,633.1B"}'><strong>₩18,633.1B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; DART"}'>Source: KRX &amp; DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>The general view of institutions on the public offering price of Kakao Bank, which has been proven in this bookbuilding, is that it is NOT ridiculously high.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>They seem to have paid attention to the growth potential of Kakao Bank as a platform business and the rapid growth that supports it.</strong></p></div><p>In fact, the price accepted as the ceiling by local street is PBR 4x, but since the upper end of the indicative price band stays at 3.5x, it is said that they generally did not feel any objection to the price.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="150">
<col width="150">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Indicative price band"}'>Indicative price band</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Low"}'>Lower end</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"High"}'>Upper end</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price"}'>Price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":33000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>₩33,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":39000}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"[$₩-412]#,##0",1]'>₩39,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Implied market cap"}'>Implied market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15766.510221}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*R14C2/1000000000">₩15,766.5B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":18633.148443}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*R14C2/1000000000">₩18,633.1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Equity, including capital inflow from IPO"}'>Equity, including capital inflow from IPO</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5009.4}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-13]C[0]+R[-12]C[0]">₩5,009.4B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5402.05}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[-13]C[-1]+(Terms!R[-15]C[-1]*R[-5]C[0])/1000000000">₩5,402.1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PBR"}'><strong>PBR</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3.1473849604743087}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>3.15x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3.449273598541294}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0.00x"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>3.45x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><div class="content-highlight">
<p>To clarify Kakao Bank's PBR calculations:</p>
<ol>
<li>Implied market cap by the indicative price band / Equity as of 1Q21 gives a 5.53~6.54x.</li>
<li>(Implied market cap by the indicative price band - Capital inflow from IPO) / Equity as of 1Q21 gives a 4.78~5.64x.</li>
<li><strong>Implied market cap by the indicative price band / (Equity as of 1Q21 + Capital inflow from IPO) gives you a 3.15~3.45x.</strong></li>
</ol>
<p><strong>The bankers used No. 2 to derive the indicative price band in the IPO prospectus. And many in the local street seem to be using No. 3 to get a sense of Kakao Bank's actual PBR post IPO.</strong></p>
</div><p>In particular, local institutional investors paid attention to the fact that Kakao Bank opened 6.2 million new accounts within one year. This is 40 times the total number of non-face-to-face accounts opened by 16 commercial banks in Korea over the past four years. Kakao Bank also achieved a market share of 7% in the personal credit loan market within four years of its establishment. </p><p>In other words, although Kakao Bank still provides simple banking services, the market acknowledges the actual capabilities of Kakao Bank's online platform in that it has achieved a huge customer base expansion in a short period of time.</p>

Kakao Bank's official bookbuilding results will be released after the market closes this afternoon. However, most of the important information has already been leaked to the market.First, more than ₩2,500T of subscription orders were poured into the bookbuilding. In addition, it was confirmed that the competition ratio of institutional investors for subscriptions was over 1,700 to 1. The competition ratio of 1,000 to 1 was already recorded on the first day, and a significant number of subscriptions were made on the second day as well.The total value of subscription orders surpassed SKIET's ₩2,417T, which was the largest amount in history for an IPO in Korea.As a result, the offering price was also almost decided at ₩39,000, which is the upper end of the indicative price band. The market capitalization based on ₩39,000 is ₩18.6T. This is close to that of KB Financial Group (₩21.6T) and Shinhan Financial Group (₩19.9T). So, it is likely that Kakao Bank will become the largest market cap bank in Korea after its listing.








Market cap
KB Financial Group
Shinhan Financial Group
Kakao Bank


Ticker
105560
055550
323410


Market cap
₩21,580.4B
₩19,940.7B
₩18,633.1B

Source: KRX &amp; DART

The general view of institutions on the public offering price of Kakao Bank, which has been proven in this bookbuilding, is that it is NOT ridiculously high.They seem to have paid attention to the growth potential of Kakao Bank as a platform business and the rapid growth that supports it.In fact, the price accepted as the ceiling by local street is PBR 4x, but since the upper end of the indicative price band stays at 3.5x, it is said that they generally did not feel any objection to the price.







Indicative price band
Lower end
Upper end


Price
₩33,000
₩39,000


Implied market cap
₩15,766.5B
₩18,633.1B


Equity, including capital inflow from IPO
₩5,009.4B
₩5,402.1B


PBR
3.15x
3.45x

Source: DART


To clarify Kakao Bank's PBR calculations:

Implied market cap by the indicative price band / Equity as of 1Q21 gives a 5.53~6.54x.
(Implied market cap by the indicative price band - Capital inflow from IPO) / Equity as of 1Q21 gives a 4.78~5.64x.
Implied market cap by the indicative price band / (Equity as of 1Q21 + Capital inflow from IPO) gives you a 3.15~3.45x.

The bankers used No. 2 to derive the indicative price band in the IPO prospectus. And many in the local street seem to be using No. 3 to get a sense of Kakao Bank's actual PBR post IPO.
In particular, local institutional investors paid attention to the fact that Kakao Bank opened 6.2 million new accounts within one year. This is 40 times the total number of non-face-to-face accounts opened by 16 commercial banks in Korea over the past four years. Kakao Bank also achieved a market share of 7% in the personal credit loan market within four years of its establishment. In other words, although Kakao Bank still provides simple banking services, the market acknowledges the actual capabilities of Kakao Bank's online platform in that it has achieved a huge customer base expansion in a short period of time.

Kakao Bank Bookbuilding: What's Really Happened Among Local Institutions?

<p>It has been reported that Kakao Pay is considering delaying its listing to September. This is because of the 135-day rule that a company undergoing an IPO must complete the listing procedure within 135 days from the date of preparation of the financial statements.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>According to this regulation, Kakao Pay must complete the listing within August 13, 135 days from the date of the 1Q21 financial statements.</strong></p></div><hr><h2>What is the 135-day rule?</h2><p><strong>The 135-day rule is a rule on the expiration date of accounting settlement data reflected in the IPO prospectus and the securities declarations for overseas investors.</strong></p><p>The important point here is that KRX does not have any rule similar to the 135 rule.</p><p>On the other hand, the US Securities and Exchange Commission stipulates that all listing schedules, including payment, be completed within 135 days from the time the financial statements stated in the IPO prospectus are prepared.</p><p><strong>So why should Kakao Pay care about the 135-day rule?</strong></p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>This rule does not apply to domestic investors, but it inevitably applies when a newly listed company with a large IPO size needs to raise funds abroad that are within the jurisdiction of the SEC.</strong></p></div><h2>When is the deadline for the initial IPO prospectus?</h2><p>If listing proceeds based on the financial statements at the end of the first quarter, March 31 will become the base date. So, the last business day of the 135-day rule will be <strong>August 13</strong>.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>For this reason, Kakao Pay's listing date was set for August 12, despite concerns about overlapping demand with Kakao Bank.</strong></p></div><p>That is, August 12, the scheduled listing date of Kakao Pay, was a really tight schedule. Therefore, the fact that the Financial Supervisory Service requested a revised report was risking that the listing schedule would be significantly pushed back.</p><h2>How long will the schedule be delayed?</h2><p>In the end, the 135-day rule was not met based on the 1Q financial statements, so the IPO prospectus has to be rewritten based on the 2nd quarter financial statements.</p><p><strong>This means that the IPO schedule has to be adjusted in line with the submission of the 2Q financial report to be published in mid-August.</strong></p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>In this case, considering that it will take at least a month or more to complete the listing process, including the FSS review period, it is expected that the company will be listed at the end of September at the earliest. In other words, at this point, the possibility of an October listing should remain open.</strong></p></div>

It has been reported that Kakao Pay is considering delaying its listing to September. This is because of the 135-day rule that a company undergoing an IPO must complete the listing procedure within 135 days from the date of preparation of the financial statements.According to this regulation, Kakao Pay must complete the listing within August 13, 135 days from the date of the 1Q21 financial statements.What is the 135-day rule?The 135-day rule is a rule on the expiration date of accounting settlement data reflected in the IPO prospectus and the securities declarations for overseas investors.The important point here is that KRX does not have any rule similar to the 135 rule.On the other hand, the US Securities and Exchange Commission stipulates that all listing schedules, including payment, be completed within 135 days from the time the financial statements stated in the IPO prospectus are prepared.So why should Kakao Pay care about the 135-day rule?This rule does not apply to domestic investors, but it inevitably applies when a newly listed company with a large IPO size needs to raise funds abroad that are within the jurisdiction of the SEC.When is the deadline for the initial IPO prospectus?If listing proceeds based on the financial statements at the end of the first quarter, March 31 will become the base date. So, the last business day of the 135-day rule will be August 13.For this reason, Kakao Pay's listing date was set for August 12, despite concerns about overlapping demand with Kakao Bank.That is, August 12, the scheduled listing date of Kakao Pay, was a really tight schedule. Therefore, the fact that the Financial Supervisory Service requested a revised report was risking that the listing schedule would be significantly pushed back.How long will the schedule be delayed?In the end, the 135-day rule was not met based on the 1Q financial statements, so the IPO prospectus has to be rewritten based on the 2nd quarter financial statements.This means that the IPO schedule has to be adjusted in line with the submission of the 2Q financial report to be published in mid-August.In this case, considering that it will take at least a month or more to complete the listing process, including the FSS review period, it is expected that the company will be listed at the end of September at the earliest. In other words, at this point, the possibility of an October listing should remain open.

Accurate Facts About the Application of Kakao Pay's 135-Day Listing Date Rule

<p>In a regulatory filing on July 16 (later today), the Financial Supervisory Service said that it had requested Kakao Pay to revise its IPO prospectus. As a result, the IPO prospectus submitted by Kakao Pay earlier this month has been suspended.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/218/913/original/Screen+Shot+2021-07-16+at+10.12.05+AM.png?1626444842" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="218913"></figure></section><p>Kakao Pay must submit a revised report within three months, and if it is not submitted, it is considered a withdrawal of the public offering.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/218/914/original/Screen+Shot+2021-07-16+at+10.20.56+AM.png?1626445364" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="218914"></figure><div class="content-highlight"><p><a href="http://dart.fss.or.kr/dsaf001/main.do?rcpNo=20210716100004" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here is the link to the regulatory filing. (DART)</a></p></div></section>

In a regulatory filing on July 16 (later today), the Financial Supervisory Service said that it had requested Kakao Pay to revise its IPO prospectus. As a result, the IPO prospectus submitted by Kakao Pay earlier this month has been suspended.Kakao Pay must submit a revised report within three months, and if it is not submitted, it is considered a withdrawal of the public offering.Here is the link to the regulatory filing. (DART)

Kakao Pay to Revise Offering Price: Reasons & Schedule Impacts on Kakao Bank & Krafton

South Korea

Kakao Entertainment Corp. operates as an application software development company. The Company provides online cartoons, online novels, music, and more. Kakao Entertainment conducts businesses in South Korea.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kakao Entertainment (103260 KS)

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Kakao Bank Bookbuilding Results: Disclosing Subscription/Lockup Orders in Detail

This post details Kakao Bank's bookbuilding results with full disclosures of subscription and lockup orders by each type of institutional investor.

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Kakao Bank Bookbuilding: What's Really Happened Among Local Institutions?

Most of the important information about Kakao Bank's bookbuilding results has already been leaked. This post explains circumstantial factors...

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Accurate Facts About the Application of Kakao Pay's 135-Day Listing Date Rule

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In a regulatory filing on July 16, the Financial Supervisory Service said that it had requested Kakao Pay to revise its IPO prospectus.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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