IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Webtoon Entertainment / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webtoon-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43652:1" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US)</a>, a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/webtoon-entertainment-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:146038" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on declining organic revenue, declining Korean paying ratio, a peaking Japan growth driver, optimistic market sizing, and unsustainable low marketing spending.</li>
</ul>



Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
In Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on declining organic revenue, declining Korean paying ratio, a peaking Japan growth driver, optimistic market sizing, and unsustainable low marketing spending.


Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: The Bear Case

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO.</li>
<li>Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s performance, undertaken a peer comparison and talked about valuations in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the refiling and other updates.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
We have looked at the company’s performance, undertaken a peer comparison and talked about valuations in our past notes. In this note, we talk about the refiling and other updates.


Shift Up IPO - Refiling and Other Updates, Not Ranked at the Top Anymore

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webtoon-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43652:1" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US)</a>, a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>Webtoon is the leading web-comic player in all its major geographies, including Korea, the US and Japan. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ly-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">LY (4689 JP)</a> are the primary shareholders.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising monthly active users, strong constant currency growth supported by monetisation initiatives, a shift to profitability, and cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), a global storytelling platform, seeks to raise up to US$500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
Webtoon is the leading web-comic player in all its major geographies, including Korea, the US and Japan. Naver Corp (035420 KS) and LY (4689 JP) are the primary shareholders.
The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising monthly active users, strong constant currency growth supported by monetisation initiatives, a shift to profitability, and cash generation.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Shift Up is target price of 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (60,000 won).</li>
<li>We believe Shift Up deserves higher valuation multiples than its peers mainly due to higher sales growth, much higher operating margins, and higher ROE.</li>
<li>Since its launch in April of this year, Stellar Blade (PS console game) has ranked first in sales in eight countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Shift Up is target price of 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (60,000 won).
We believe Shift Up deserves higher valuation multiples than its peers mainly due to higher sales growth, much higher operating margins, and higher ROE.
Since its launch in April of this year, Stellar Blade (PS console game) has ranked first in sales in eight countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.


Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reports that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone (BX US)</a> has agreed to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teijin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5097:1" rel="noopener">Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)</a>’s 55% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infocom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8412:1" rel="noopener">Infocom Corp (4348 JP)</a> at a rumoured valuation of JPY260 billion. </li>
<li>The potential minority offer price depends on whether the rumoured valuation refers to market cap or enterprise value and whether Teijin will share TOB tax benefits. </li>
<li>The most likely scenario is that the valuation refers to the market cap, with Teijin sharing TOB tax benefits, resulting in a minority offer of around JPY5,720 per share. </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that Blackstone (BX US) has agreed to acquire Teijin Ltd (3401 JP)’s 55% stake in Infocom Corp (4348 JP) at a rumoured valuation of JPY260 billion. 
The potential minority offer price depends on whether the rumoured valuation refers to market cap or enterprise value and whether Teijin will share TOB tax benefits. 
The most likely scenario is that the valuation refers to the market cap, with Teijin sharing TOB tax benefits, resulting in a minority offer of around JPY5,720 per share. 


Infocom (4348 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured JPY260bn Bid to Acquire Teijin’s Stake

Japan

KADOKAWA DWANGO CORP is a holding company established through the merger of DWAN GO and KADOKAWA. The company publishes a variety of books and magazines as well as produces movies and videos.  KADOKAWA DWANGO CORP also develops and makes int ernet communication tools for cellular phones.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP)

Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on declining organic revenue, declining Korean paying ratio, a peaking Japan growth driver, optimistic market sizing, and...

Arun George

Shift Up IPO - Refiling and Other Updates, Not Ranked at the Top Anymore

Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO. In this note, we talk about the refiling and other updates.

Sumeet Singh

Webtoon Entertainment IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising monthly active users, strong constant currency growth supported by monetisation initiatives, a shift to...

Arun George

Shift Up IPO Valuation Analysis

The first day of book building for the Shift Up IPO started on Monday and it looks excellent. Many institutional investors placed orders at prices...

Douglas Kim

Infocom (4348 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured JPY260bn Bid to Acquire Teijin’s Stake

The potential minority offer price depends on whether the rumoured JPY260bn valuation refers to market cap or enterprise value and whether Teijin...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)