IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bundl-technologies-private-limited-swiggy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (1255298D IN)</a>, a hyperlocal commerce platform, aims to raise up to US$1.4 billion through an IPO at a price range of Rs371-390.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/swiggy-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:163915" rel="noopener">Swiggy IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on food delivery and Instamart's lagging Zomato on key metrics, ongoing losses, and cash burn.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy (1255298D IN), a hyperlocal commerce platform, aims to raise up to US$1.4 billion through an IPO at a price range of Rs371-390.
In Swiggy IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on food delivery and Instamart's lagging Zomato on key metrics, ongoing losses, and cash burn.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bundl-technologies-private-limited-swiggy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy (1255298D IN)</a>, a hyperlocal commerce platform, aims to raise up to US$1.4 billion at a valuation of US$11.3 billion. </li>
<li>Unlike <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a>’s (the key competitor) multi-app approach, Swiggy’s approach is to provide users with an integrated app offering.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on strong customer retention, food delivery hitting break-even, Instamart’s rapid growth and declining losses, and Out-of-Home Consumption’s strong growth and declining losses.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy (1255298D IN), a hyperlocal commerce platform, aims to raise up to US$1.4 billion at a valuation of US$11.3 billion. 
Unlike Zomato (ZOMATO IN)’s (the key competitor) multi-app approach, Swiggy’s approach is to provide users with an integrated app offering.
The bull case rests on strong customer retention, food delivery hitting break-even, Instamart’s rapid growth and declining losses, and Out-of-Home Consumption’s strong growth and declining losses.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share).</li>
<li>We estimate the company's operating margin to improve from 2.4% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2023 and 14.6% in 2024.</li>
<li>Although overall sales growth rate from 2020 to 2024 is lower for Instacart as compared to Uber and DoorDash, Instacart is having stronger growth in operating margins than its peers. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share).
We estimate the company's operating margin to improve from 2.4% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2023 and 14.6% in 2024.
Although overall sales growth rate from 2020 to 2024 is lower for Instacart as compared to Uber and DoorDash, Instacart is having stronger growth in operating margins than its peers. 


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The food-delivery company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deliveroo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27468:1" rel="noopener">Deliveroo (ROO LN)</a>  initiated the stock buyback program and will purchase up to £75M worth of shares to reassure investors. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deliveroo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27468:1" rel="noopener">Deliveroo (ROO LN)</a>  is down ~77% from the IPO price as Covid lockdown restrictions have ended and revenue growth slowed significantly. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deliveroo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27468:1" rel="noopener">Deliveroo (ROO LN)</a>  currently trades at 0.1x EV/2022E GMV, a discount relative to its key peers that trade at an average of 0.3x EV/2022E GMV.  </li>
</ul>


The food-delivery company Deliveroo (ROO LN)  initiated the stock buyback program and will purchase up to £75M worth of shares to reassure investors. 

Deliveroo (ROO LN)  is down ~77% from the IPO price as Covid lockdown restrictions have ended and revenue growth slowed significantly. 

Deliveroo (ROO LN)  currently trades at 0.1x EV/2022E GMV, a discount relative to its key peers that trade at an average of 0.3x EV/2022E GMV.  


Deliveroo Has £1B+ Of Dry Powder; The Stock Is Undervalued, £75M Buyback Will Reassure Investors

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The index changes for DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX were announced yesterday.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beiersdorf-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21588:1" rel="noopener">Beiersdorf AG (BEI GR)</a> will move from MDAX to DAX while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delivery-hero-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24416:1" rel="noopener">Delivery Hero SE (DHER GR)</a> will move from DAX to MDAX.</li>
<li>Below is a closer look at the excess volume expectations and historical price and volume performance of the names involved in this Rebalance Event.</li>
</ul>


The index changes for DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX were announced yesterday.

Beiersdorf AG (BEI GR) will move from MDAX to DAX while Delivery Hero SE (DHER GR) will move from DAX to MDAX.
Below is a closer look at the excess volume expectations and historical price and volume performance of the names involved in this Rebalance Event.


DAX, MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX June 2022 Rebalance: Encavis & Hensoldt Top Positives; Hypoport Top Negative

Netherlands

Just Eat Takeaway provides online food services. The Company offers online food and beverages ordering and delivery platform. Just Eat Takeaway serves customers in Europe and Israel.

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Just Eat Takeaway (JET LN)

Swiggy IPO: The Bear Case

Swiggy aims to raise up to US$1.4 billion. The bear case rests on food delivery and Instamart's lagging Zomato on key metrics, ongoing losses, and...

Arun George

Swiggy IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on strong customer retention, food delivery hitting break-even, Instamart’s rapid growth and declining losses, and Out-of-Home...

Arun George

Instacart IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range...

Douglas Kim

Deliveroo Has £1B+ Of Dry Powder; The Stock Is Undervalued, £75M Buyback Will Reassure Investors

Deliveroo is down ~77% from the IPO price, and we think the stock buyback program will reassure investors, keep in mind a solid balance sheet and...

Andrei Zakharov

DAX, MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX June 2022 Rebalance: Encavis & Hensoldt Top Positives; Hypoport Top Negative

A discussion on June 2022 index changes for DAX, MDAX, SDAX, and TecDAX. Enclavis and Hensoldt are names with highest positive impacts and Hypoport...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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