Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now?  Unwind.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August. </li>
<li>The right trade is to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you're an arbitrageur, you know what to do.</li>
</ul>


The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now?  Unwind.

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August. 
The right trade is to buy JTower (4485 JP) below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you're an arbitrageur, you know what to do.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/businesson-communication-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26040:1" rel="noopener">BusinessOn Communication (138580 KS)</a>'s Tender Offers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orora-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16042:1" rel="noopener">Orora (ORA AU)</a> approached by Lone Star. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> Offer also rumoured.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/namoi-cotton-co-operative" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10711:1" rel="noopener">Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services (APM AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal
Two new deals were discussed this week: JTower (4485 JP) and BusinessOn Communication (138580 KS)'s Tender Offers. Orora (ORA AU) approached by Lone Star. Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) Offer also rumoured.
Key updates took place on China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU), APM Human Services (APM AU), and CPMC Holdings (906 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, BusinessOn Comm, Orora, Ramsay Health Care, Namoi Cotton, APM, CPMC

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Japan telecom and Internet companies in our coverage universe held ¥1,253bn in public equities as of Q2(Sep) largely built through capital alliances tied to business collaboration</li>
<li>NTT has the largest portfolio at c. ¥958bn (7% of market cap) followed by KDDI. Toyota (¥354bn) and JTower (three strategic telcos) are the largest and most widely held </li>
<li>The P&amp;L impact of valuation changes in Q2 should be muted. We have included tables for all the companies in our coverage</li>
</ul>


The Japan telecom and Internet companies in our coverage universe held ¥1,253bn in public equities as of Q2(Sep) largely built through capital alliances tied to business collaboration
NTT has the largest portfolio at c. ¥958bn (7% of market cap) followed by KDDI. Toyota (¥354bn) and JTower (three strategic telcos) are the largest and most widely held 
The P&amp;L impact of valuation changes in Q2 should be muted. We have included tables for all the companies in our coverage


Japan Telecoms/Internet - A Quick Look at Public Equity Portfolios

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q4 and FY21 results released Thursday were largely in-line with forecasts although guidance for FY22 missed consensus as upfront costs for entering the tower business ramp up</li>
<li>For FY22, JTower will compete the transfer of 2,000 DoCoMo towers (c. one-third) and 90% of NTT East/West towers with the handover starting in Q3 </li>
<li>By FY26, JTower expects annual revenue of ¥30bn (+51% CAGR from ¥6bn in FY22) and EBITDA margins of 60% (¥18bn in EBITDA v ¥ 1.6bn)</li>
</ul>


Q4 and FY21 results released Thursday were largely in-line with forecasts although guidance for FY22 missed consensus as upfront costs for entering the tower business ramp up
For FY22, JTower will compete the transfer of 2,000 DoCoMo towers (c. one-third) and 90% of NTT East/West towers with the handover starting in Q3 
By FY26, JTower expects annual revenue of ¥30bn (+51% CAGR from ¥6bn in FY22) and EBITDA margins of 60% (¥18bn in EBITDA v ¥ 1.6bn)


JTower Q4 21 Results Reaction: Impact of Tower Deals Encouraging

Travis Lundy

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TSE launched its new cash equity market structure earlier this week. The TOPIX Index changes include a one-off FFW Methodology Review, where results were announced today. </li>
<li>The changes announced today go part-way to fixing float issues, but there will be follow-on changes in October, and one should expect companies to react with share cancellations.</li>
<li>The big gainer in this TOPIX rebal is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>. There are a fair number of "losers." The 3-month total trade is about ¥2.3trln one-way.</li>
</ul>


The TSE launched its new cash equity market structure earlier this week. The TOPIX Index changes include a one-off FFW Methodology Review, where results were announced today. 
The changes announced today go part-way to fixing float issues, but there will be follow-on changes in October, and one should expect companies to react with share cancellations.
The big gainer in this TOPIX rebal is NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP). There are a fair number of "losers." The 3-month total trade is about ¥2.3trln one-way.


The BIGLY TOPIX April 2022 Rebalance - $20bn One-Way Split Over 3 Months

Japan

JTOWER Inc. provides wireless telecom services. The Company offers mobile telecommunication network designing, in building mobile infrastructure sharing, information platform designing, and other services. JTOWER provides its services throughout Japan.

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JTower (4485 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: TCM, BusinessOn Comm, Orora, Ramsay Health Care, Namoi Cotton, APM, CPMC

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Telecoms/Internet - A Quick Look at Public Equity Portfolios

Public equity portfolios in our coverage represent 3% of total market cap, driven by capital alliances tied to business collaboration. We thought...

Kirk Boodry

JTower Q4 21 Results Reaction: Impact of Tower Deals Encouraging

At its Q4 results last week, JTower defined the magnitude of potential growth expected from tower carve-out deals announced with NTT last year. By...

Kirk Boodry

The BIGLY TOPIX April 2022 Rebalance - $20bn One-Way Split Over 3 Months

The BIG TOPIX April 2022 Rebalance. Concurrent with the move to new structure, the TSE changed the FFW methodology to exclude cross-holdings. The...

Travis Lundy

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