FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The market views Trumpnomics as a glass half full at the moment.  The rise in global yields and surge in USD has not spilled over to weaker equities.  The US stock market has moved to new highs in a broad-based rally notwithstanding potential headwinds from a strong USD and risks to trading relations and immigrant labor that may arise as Trump fills key roles in his administration with hardline loyalists.  Other major equity markets and global commodity prices are also strong.  The USD has</em>…</p>

The market views Trumpnomics as a glass half full at the moment.  The rise in global yields and surge in USD has not spilled over to weaker equities.  The US stock market has moved to new highs in a broad-based rally notwithstanding potential headwinds from a strong USD and risks to trading relations and immigrant labor that may arise as Trump fills key roles in his administration with hardline loyalists.  Other major equity markets and global commodity prices are also strong.  The USD has…

Glass Half-Full so Far on Trumpnomics, but Risks Are Lurking

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics FX webcast </strong>Friday 18 November 2016</p><div><strong>DXY 100.50 cleared/breakout</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/u1IU8kEMhpx" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/u1IU8kEMhpx</a> </strong>8:13 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/574/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1479438071" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16574"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX positioning for DXY macro run</div>
</div><div>We expected a bit of a pullback before clearing DXY 100.50 but it now looks as though we are breaking this key macro pivot point and seeing momentum build in tier three currencies. This will have a bearish impact on EM equities in particular but in line with our long US/short EEM positioning.</div><p>Rather than focusing on…</p>

Chartonics FX webcast Friday 18 November 2016DXY 100.50 cleared/breakoutTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/u1IU8kEMhpx 8:13 min.
FX positioning for DXY macro run
We expected a bit of a pullback before clearing DXY 100.50 but it now looks as though we are breaking this key macro pivot point and seeing momentum build in tier three currencies. This will have a bearish impact on EM equities in particular but in line with our long US/short EEM positioning.Rather than focusing on…

DXY Mega Bullish Breakout - Tier 3 EM FX Rotation

<p><em>US yields firm back to recent highs as Yellen notes the inflationary risks that may arise from a big infrastructure spend with the economy near full employment.  The BoJ illustrate the power of their Yield Curve Control policy in a rising yield environment, sending the USD/JPY higher. Attention may turn more to the Italian constitutional referendum on 4 December.  Risk aversion is rising in the Eurozone with peripheral bonds, especially in Italy, underperforming, Bund yields stalling, Eurozone equities and corporate bonds lagging other markets.  EUR is down noticeably vs CHF and GBP, indicative of rising fears over Eurozone stability.  As investors focus more on the 4 December referendum we may see EUR/JPY come under pressure, helping to cap USD/JPY for the time-being.  Given the stronger sentiment for the USD, benefitting from Trump’s policies and recent evidence of stronger activity and inflation in the USA, we may see rising risk aversion in the Eurozone contribute to further weakness in EM and commodity currencies vs the USD.  AUD is suffering from evidence that the Australian economy may have stalled below potential just as the USA is making solid progress towards higher inflation, and higher global yields see a retreat in carry trades in riskier currencies, like AUD and NZD.</em></p>

US yields firm back to recent highs as Yellen notes the inflationary risks that may arise from a big infrastructure spend with the economy near full employment.  The BoJ illustrate the power of their Yield Curve Control policy in a rising yield environment, sending the USD/JPY higher. Attention may turn more to the Italian constitutional referendum on 4 December.  Risk aversion is rising in the Eurozone with peripheral bonds, especially in Italy, underperforming, Bund yields stalling, Eurozone equities and corporate bonds lagging other markets.  EUR is down noticeably vs CHF and GBP, indicative of rising fears over Eurozone stability.  As investors focus more on the 4 December referendum we may see EUR/JPY come under pressure, helping to cap USD/JPY for the time-being.  Given the stronger sentiment for the USD, benefitting from Trump’s policies and recent evidence of stronger activity and inflation in the USA, we may see rising risk aversion in the Eurozone contribute to further weakness in EM and commodity currencies vs the USD.  AUD is suffering from evidence that the Australian economy may have stalled below potential just as the USA is making solid progress towards higher inflation, and higher global yields see a retreat in carry trades in riskier currencies, like AUD and NZD.

Eurozone Risk Aversion Building as Italian Referendum Approaches

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Wednesday 16 November 2016</p><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/0omiTDQY" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/0omiTDQY</a> </strong>8:27 min.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/494/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1479273475" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16494"></figure><div class="content-caption">S&amp;P fade and positioning</div><div><strong>S&amp;P 2,190 fade and EM pressure</strong></div><div>Gains have been impressive and we are looking for trim levels. Our base case called for an S&amp;P lull and then push to 2,190 where we expect a bigger fade back to 2,120-30 with reality that we find support at 2,150. US financial and transport sectors have been our top pick but looking stretched near term. Energy did take the…</div>

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 16 November 2016To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/0omiTDQY 8:27 min.S&amp;P fade and positioningS&amp;P 2,190 fade and EM pressureGains have been impressive and we are looking for trim levels. Our base case called for an S&amp;P lull and then push to 2,190 where we expect a bigger fade back to 2,120-30 with reality that we find support at 2,150. US financial and transport sectors have been our top pick but looking stretched near term. Energy did take the…

<p><em>If the recent surge in global yields is durable, and we think it is, there are two themes in currency markets that need to be further unwound.  One is the excessive strength in the JPY based largely on a lack of confidence in BoJ policy, the other is the excessive gains in currencies like the NZD based on a related ‘search for yield’.</em></p>

If the recent surge in global yields is durable, and we think it is, there are two themes in currency markets that need to be further unwound.  One is the excessive strength in the JPY based largely on a lack of confidence in BoJ policy, the other is the excessive gains in currencies like the NZD based on a related ‘search for yield’.

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Glass Half-Full so Far on Trumpnomics, but Risks Are Lurking

The market views Trumpnomics as a glass half full at the moment. The rise in global yields and surge in USD has not spilled over to weaker...

Greg Gibbs

DXY Mega Bullish Breakout - Tier 3 EM FX Rotation

Chartonics FX webcast Friday 18 November 2016DXY 100.50 cleared/breakoutTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/u1IU8kEMhpx 8:13...

Thomas Schroeder

Eurozone Risk Aversion Building as Italian Referendum Approaches

US yields firm back to recent highs as Yellen notes the inflationary risks that may arise from a big infrastructure spend with the economy near...

Greg Gibbs

S&P 2,190 Fade and EM Positioning

Chartonics webcast Wednesday 16 November 2016To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/0omiTDQY 8:27 min.S&P 2,190 fade and EM...

Thomas Schroeder

Two Currency Themes to Unwind

If the recent surge in global yields is durable, and we think it is, there are two themes in currency markets that need to be further unwound. One...

Greg Gibbs

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