Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Technical Analysis

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of trend conformity continues to create widely diverse opinions on the Dollar’s direction.The most important forex rate in the world is the US Dollar/Euro (EUR – 1.1610), that and the closely correlated US Dollar Index (DXY – 94.76) are the FX rates we focus most on in this report.Our view remains bullish on the Euro and, thus not surprisingly bearish on the US Dollar Index. The Euro’s advance out of the 28-month range between €1.0500-1.1500, the subsequent break above the August 2016 high of €1.1714 and the strong advance to €1.2092 cumulatively increase the odds that the Euro has registered a major cyclical low.A cyclical advance from January’s €1.0341 low targets the major resistance around €1.5000, a barrier for almost 40 years. The Euro’s recent decline is seen as corrective, and we are now approaching an area of great importance to our bullish Euro view.This report also features analysis of the Japanese Yen (JPY – 113.71), British Pound (GBP – 1.3171) and the Australian Dollar (AUD - 0.7691).

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of trend conformity continues to create widely diverse opinions on the Dollar’s direction.The most important forex rate in the world is the US Dollar/Euro (EUR – 1.1610), that and the closely correlated US Dollar Index (DXY – 94.76) are the FX rates we focus most on in this report.Our view remains bullish on the Euro and, thus not surprisingly bearish on the US Dollar Index. The Euro’s advance out of the 28-month range between €1.0500-1.1500, the subsequent break above the August 2016 high of €1.1714 and the strong advance to €1.2092 cumulatively increase the odds that the Euro has registered a major cyclical low.A cyclical advance from January’s €1.0341 low targets the major resistance around €1.5000, a barrier for almost 40 years. The Euro’s recent decline is seen as corrective, and we are now approaching an area of great importance to our bullish Euro view.This report also features analysis of the Japanese Yen (JPY – 113.71), British Pound (GBP – 1.3171) and the Australian Dollar (AUD - 0.7691).

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month.  It seems the market is sceptical that the recent rise in the USD will last, and has been in a ‘sell-the-rally’ frame of mind.  However, the rise in the USD has been consistent with a higher short and long-term yield advantage.  US economic reports, including the labor data on Friday, support the notion that the USD can rise further.  The USD has rallied in part due to a rejuvenated push for tax reform.  However, it appears that the market retains a significant risk premium (discounting the USD) to account for US political uncertainty.

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month.  It seems the market is sceptical that the recent rise in the USD will last, and has been in a ‘sell-the-rally’ frame of mind.  However, the rise in the USD has been consistent with a higher short and long-term yield advantage.  US economic reports, including the labor data on Friday, support the notion that the USD can rise further.  The USD has rallied in part due to a rejuvenated push for tax reform.  However, it appears that the market retains a significant risk premium (discounting the USD) to account for US political uncertainty.

Skeptical Market Is Very Short US Dollars

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Our base case for the Nikkei has called for a test on the key 20,900 barrier with an initial rejection to build steam to challenge and clear the all-important 21,000 level.Our tech focus piece outlined working in long exposure in Line, Fanuc, Softbank and Nintendo on pullbacks. This is one space to build long exposure in Japan.Inpex was featured near the 1,080 area and then again in our October 2nd issue, outlining a bullish breakout with strategic opportunities. Near term weakness hear and…

Our base case for the Nikkei has called for a test on the key 20,900 barrier with an initial rejection to build steam to challenge and clear the all-important 21,000 level.Our tech focus piece outlined working in long exposure in Line, Fanuc, Softbank and Nintendo on pullbacks. This is one space to build long exposure in Japan.Inpex was featured near the 1,080 area and then again in our October 2nd issue, outlining a bullish breakout with strategic opportunities. Near term weakness hear and…

The Trump tax plan is potentially very positive for the USD, generating a significant incentive for capital inflow and business investment.  The market response so far is muted, but may well continue to build.  We like the USD/JPY, but the Japanese election may be a sticking point.

The Trump tax plan is potentially very positive for the USD, generating a significant incentive for capital inflow and business investment.  The market response so far is muted, but may well continue to build.  We like the USD/JPY, but the Japanese election may be a sticking point.

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global growth, diminishing uncertainty from geopolitical risks and hurricane season, and now a clearer focus on tax reform.  The USD/JPY is likely to mirror any further rise in yields.  The Bank of Canada walked back rate hike expectations.  NZD/USD may succumb to yet further narrowing in its razor-thin yield advantage with diminishing reasons to explain its strength.

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global growth, diminishing uncertainty from geopolitical risks and hurricane season, and now a clearer focus on tax reform.  The USD/JPY is likely to mirror any further rise in yields.  The Bank of Canada walked back rate hike expectations.  NZD/USD may succumb to yet further narrowing in its razor-thin yield advantage with diminishing reasons to explain its strength.

Rising US Yields to Lift USD/JPY; CAD and NZD Vulnerable

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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US Dollar: One Size Does Not Fit All

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of...

Chris Roberts

Skeptical Market Is Very Short US Dollars

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month. It...

Greg Gibbs

Gearing up in Japan - Buy SMFG

Our base case for the Nikkei has called for a test on the key 20,900 barrier with an initial rejection to build steam to challenge and clear the...

Thomas Schroeder

Trump Tax Plan Is a Big Dollar Booster

The Trump tax plan is potentially very positive for the USD, generating a significant incentive for capital inflow and business investment. The...

Greg Gibbs

Rising US Yields to Lift USD/JPY; CAD and NZD Vulnerable

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global...

Greg Gibbs

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