Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

The Kospi Index has fallen back to key levels that must again be watched closely.The rise in both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krw" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22828:1" rel="noopener">KRW (USDKRW CURNCY)</a> and JPYKRW are early warning signs that there could be trouble ahead.A break below 3,252 would be an initial bearish sign while a close below 3,220 would confirm that there is likely to be notable danger ahead.

The Kospi Index has fallen back to key levels that must again be watched closely.The rise in both KRW (USDKRW CURNCY) and JPYKRW are early warning signs that there could be trouble ahead.A break below 3,252 would be an initial bearish sign while a close below 3,220 would confirm that there is likely to be notable danger ahead.

FX & Rates

Given the continued fall in long end yields, it is about time we saw a slightly lower USDJPY, even if the USD has remained stable to strong elsewhere. What that means is that JPY crosses remain vulnerable (including USDJPY itself albeit to a lesser extend)

Given the continued fall in long end yields, it is about time we saw a slightly lower USDJPY, even if the USD has remained stable to strong elsewhere. What that means is that JPY crosses remain vulnerable (including USDJPY itself albeit to a lesser extend)  

Cross Asset Strategy

While the Kospi Index is only marginally below the trend highs, the developments on JPYKRW warn of something more serious ahead. A breach of 10.43 on JPYKRW and 3,205 on the Kospi Index, if and when both seen, would be important developments.

While the Kospi Index is only marginally below the trend highs, the developments on JPYKRW warn of something more serious ahead. A breach of 10.43 on JPYKRW and 3,205 on the Kospi Index, if and when both seen, would be important developments.

Kospi Index - Emerging Concerns Beneath the Surface

Since the release of US labour market data yields have slipped. Notable price action has unfolded for only the third time since yields peaked in late March, which indicates lower yields still.Additionally, USDJPY has faltered, which is consistent with the signs in fixed income markets.But how low is low? Could this just be a short lived and relatively meaningless move down in yields or could we see US 10Y yield below 1.46% and US 30Y yield below 2.15%?

Since the release of US labour market data yields have slipped. Notable price action has unfolded for only the third time since yields peaked in late March, which indicates lower yields still.Additionally, USDJPY has faltered, which is consistent with the signs in fixed income markets.But how low is low? Could this just be a short lived and relatively meaningless move down in yields or could we see US 10Y yield below 1.46% and US 30Y yield below 2.15%?

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>Asia forex market volatility falls to near 40-year lows</li>
<li>Notional Asian ‘Euro’ trading within narrow band since 2016</li>
<li>Yuan positioning like Deutschmark within the Euro ‘Euro’</li>
<li>China well-served by such arrangements</li>
<li>Implies as USD devalues Asia gains liquidity and Europe loses export competitiveness</li>
</ul>


Asia forex market volatility falls to near 40-year lows
Notional Asian ‘Euro’ trading within narrow band since 2016
Yuan positioning like Deutschmark within the Euro ‘Euro’
China well-served by such arrangements
Implies as USD devalues Asia gains liquidity and Europe loses export competitiveness
 

The Asian ‘Euro’ (¥¥): Does It Already Exist?

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Kospi Index Retesting the Pivot Area

The Kospi Index has pulled back to important levels again and is looking vulnerable. What happens here is likely to be important

Shyam Devani

CNHJPY: On the Pivots

As JPY crosses continue to slide, one major pair that may now be on verge of breaking key levels is CNHJPY - Time for catch up?

Shyam Devani

Kospi Index - Emerging Concerns Beneath the Surface

Is the FX market giving more potent signs for South Korea? A breach of 10.43 on JPYKRW and 3,205 on the Kospi Index, if and when both seen, would...

Shyam Devani

Bonds & Commodities: A Picture Unfolding

The price action in Bonds and the emerging picture in major commodity markets all point towards lower yields. Breaks are yet to be confirmed though...

Shyam Devani

The Asian ‘Euro’ (¥¥): Does It Already Exist?

An Asian 'Euro' may have already formed? If correct there are huge implications for asset allocation, such as buying Asian stocks and European bonds.

Michael J. Howell

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