Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate cut from the Fed next week.</li><li>This is the kind of “loss of composure” we see when position squaring takes precedence over common sense.</li><li>We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little this afternoon.</li></ul>

Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate cut from the Fed next week.This is the kind of “loss of composure” we see when position squaring takes precedence over common sense.We are likely approaching the point where the squaring party triggered by USDJPY is starting to impact market pricing and sentiment in nonsensical ways, as deleveraging is ongoing, even if the dust has settled a little this afternoon.

Central Bank Watch – We are approaching the point where the market is losing its composure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.</li>
<li>The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.</li>
<li>The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.
The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.
The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.


EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

<ul><li>After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.</li><li>Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.</li><li>Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.</li></ul>

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

<ul><li>Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before lunch-time.</li><li>Our aim is to digest the release calendar in an actionable way and assess the risk/reward around the macro themes in the context of the economic release calendar.</li><li>This week, we will focus on the US consumer (Retail Sales), UK inflation (CPI) and the EUR rates (ECB meeting).</li></ul>

Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before lunch-time.Our aim is to digest the release calendar in an actionable way and assess the risk/reward around the macro themes in the context of the economic release calendar.This week, we will focus on the US consumer (Retail Sales), UK inflation (CPI) and the EUR rates (ECB meeting).

The Week At A Glance: Another inflation shocker in the UK paired with a rebound in US retail sales?

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Central Bank Watch – We are approaching the point where the market is losing its composure

Markets at one point began to anticipate a risk of more than a 25 bps increase in September, and we have already seen early chatter about a rate...

Steno Research

EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

The Week At A Glance: Another inflation shocker in the UK paired with a rebound in US retail sales?

Morning from Europe! Remember that we release our “Week at a glance” publication instead of the “Something for your Espresso” every Monday before...

Steno Research

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