Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will catch up to the rest of the G10 central banks with a tighter policy.</li><li>In this piece, we look at the pros and cons of moving already this Friday for the Bank of Japan, but let’s take a look at the current back-drop before we move to the actual policy decision.</li><li>Markets started pricing in an elevated risk of a further increase to the yield-curve-control cap on Friday after a spike in wage data three weeks ago.</li></ul>

The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will catch up to the rest of the G10 central banks with a tighter policy.In this piece, we look at the pros and cons of moving already this Friday for the Bank of Japan, but let’s take a look at the current back-drop before we move to the actual policy decision.Markets started pricing in an elevated risk of a further increase to the yield-curve-control cap on Friday after a spike in wage data three weeks ago.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past week.</li><li>Yesterday we launched the first of a couple of articles focusing on the current business cycle, giving our best guess on where in the cycle we are, what markets are pricing in and most importantly – what will happen next.</li><li>The full articles regarding the business cycle and how different asset classes are positioned for it will be released throughout the week for premium subscribers.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past week.Yesterday we launched the first of a couple of articles focusing on the current business cycle, giving our best guess on where in the cycle we are, what markets are pricing in and most importantly – what will happen next.The full articles regarding the business cycle and how different asset classes are positioned for it will be released throughout the week for premium subscribers.

5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation

<ul>
<li>The Japanese bubble of low-interest rates and inflation has been a hot topic throughout the whole Fed hiking cycle, as the ultra-loose monetary policy conducted in Japan leaves a textbook-like carry trade in shorting the Yen against basically every other currency with positive interest rates.</li>
<li>With the recent rally in Yen and JGB yields, it might therefore be time to revisit the Asian islands to see if something has structurally changed, or if the Yen will remain the most shorted currency worldwide.</li>
<li>If now is the time to load up on the Japanese currency, it could be one of the greatest trades for every PM and investor out there – as you say, the higher you have to climb, the further you have to fall.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese bubble of low-interest rates and inflation has been a hot topic throughout the whole Fed hiking cycle, as the ultra-loose monetary policy conducted in Japan leaves a textbook-like carry trade in shorting the Yen against basically every other currency with positive interest rates.
With the recent rally in Yen and JGB yields, it might therefore be time to revisit the Asian islands to see if something has structurally changed, or if the Yen will remain the most shorted currency worldwide.
If now is the time to load up on the Japanese currency, it could be one of the greatest trades for every PM and investor out there – as you say, the higher you have to climb, the further you have to fall.


Japan Watch – Buy the JPY? >150 More Likely than <130 in USDJPY

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Gold has managed to maintain its ground recently and remains above the $1900 level on the back of stronger-than-expected hard data on both sides of the Atlantic.</li><li>But markets are of course forward-looking and though recent strength has offered some momentum and the “inevitable recession” keeps getting postponed, markets are nonetheless expecting inflation to decelerate and central banks to change course in the coming months.</li><li>If so the historic downsizing of balance sheets will be done already (the temporary bottom was so far in during Q4-2022).</li></ul>

Gold has managed to maintain its ground recently and remains above the $1900 level on the back of stronger-than-expected hard data on both sides of the Atlantic.But markets are of course forward-looking and though recent strength has offered some momentum and the “inevitable recession” keeps getting postponed, markets are nonetheless expecting inflation to decelerate and central banks to change course in the coming months.If so the historic downsizing of balance sheets will be done already (the temporary bottom was so far in during Q4-2022).

EM BY EM #11 Hangover After the Gold Rush? - Steno Signals

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike. </li>
<li>Sterling has been our top USD short and the USD/JPY a top USD long. The Euro is under scrutiny but has been capped under 1.11.</li>
<li>We will be looking for further evidence of USD bearish elements. DXY below 102 would be more bearish but would be in line with a near term slide in yield.</li>
</ul>


Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike. 
Sterling has been our top USD short and the USD/JPY a top USD long. The Euro is under scrutiny but has been capped under 1.11.
We will be looking for further evidence of USD bearish elements. DXY below 102 would be more bearish but would be in line with a near term slide in yield.


Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Japan Watch: The pros and cons for Ueda

The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation

Welcome to this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 things that we have found particularly interesting in the past...

Steno Research

Japan Watch – Buy the JPY? >150 More Likely than <130 in USDJPY

The Japanese bubble of low-interest rates and inflation has been a hot topic throughout the whole Fed hiking cycle, as the ultra-loose monetary...

Steno Research

EM BY EM #11 Hangover After the Gold Rush? - Steno Signals

Gold has managed to maintain its ground recently and remains above the $1900 level on the back of stronger-than-expected hard data on both sides of...

Steno Research

USD Trade Splinters

Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike. Sterling has been our top USD...

Thomas Schroeder

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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