Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Japan is clearly worried about a weaker JPY despite the BoJ's bond  market policy</li>
<li>Could they be saved by external factors - namely a calming down or even reversal of rising US yields?</li>
<li>Historical comparisons as well as developments in commodities and the economy suggests the answer could be yes</li>
</ul>


Japan is clearly worried about a weaker JPY despite the BoJ's bond  market policy
Could they be saved by external factors - namely a calming down or even reversal of rising US yields?
Historical comparisons as well as developments in commodities and the economy suggests the answer could be yes


Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Heading into yesterday’s Fed meeting, the bond market asked a tough question to Powell: do you mean business?</li>
<li>Powell took a ‘’Bad Cop, Good Cop’’ stance: he answered with a firm ‘’Yes’’ at first, and then tried to soften the message during the press conference.</li>
<li>This spurred a relief rally in risk assets, but it won’t last.<br>Bond markets hate half-hearted stances, and they will keep testing the Fed and risk assets until they get what they want: clarity.</li>
</ul>


Heading into yesterday’s Fed meeting, the bond market asked a tough question to Powell: do you mean business?
Powell took a ‘’Bad Cop, Good Cop’’ stance: he answered with a firm ‘’Yes’’ at first, and then tried to soften the message during the press conference.
This spurred a relief rally in risk assets, but it won’t last. Bond markets hate half-hearted stances, and they will keep testing the Fed and risk assets until they get what they want: clarity.


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>End of May call to buy the USD vs Euro and JPY and rolled into USD longs vs NZD, CNH, KRW and ZAR. USD rally momentum expanding with EM ignition.</li>
<li>DXY saw a more impulsive push as US yields attempt new chart highs. Gains are expected to accelerate going into the Fed.</li>
<li>EM FX is the space to rotate into USD longs given the lag to register secondary lows. Explosive moves are likely.</li>
</ul>


End of May call to buy the USD vs Euro and JPY and rolled into USD longs vs NZD, CNH, KRW and ZAR. USD rally momentum expanding with EM ignition.
DXY saw a more impulsive push as US yields attempt new chart highs. Gains are expected to accelerate going into the Fed.
EM FX is the space to rotate into USD longs given the lag to register secondary lows. Explosive moves are likely.


USD Punch Higher Ahead of the Fed and Where to Rotate

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

<ul>
<li>The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.</li>
<li>The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.</li>
<li>High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.</li>
</ul>


The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.
The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.
High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.


Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

<ul>
<li>High conviction USD longs were outlined last week and we met or are meeting fresh buy levels with some support re test risk into mid-June.</li>
<li>From mid June the cycle supports higher yields, lower equities and a stronger USD tied to yield and risk aversion.</li>
<li>USD meeting long entry targets vs Euro, (JPY 127) and Sterling. CNH, THB, AUD and NZD have met first tranche USD long levels. USD/INR bull triangle stands out.</li>
</ul>


High conviction USD longs were outlined last week and we met or are meeting fresh buy levels with some support re test risk into mid-June.
From mid June the cycle supports higher yields, lower equities and a stronger USD tied to yield and risk aversion.
USD meeting long entry targets vs Euro, (JPY 127) and Sterling. CNH, THB, AUD and NZD have met first tranche USD long levels. USD/INR bull triangle stands out.


Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Could the BoJ Be Saved?

The Bank of Japan's concerns about a weakening JPY may be alleviated because of developments in markets outside their control such as commodities...

Shyam Devani

Stop Fooling Around, J-Pow

Powell took a ‘’Bad Cop, Good Cop’’ stance: he answered with a firm ‘’Yes’’ at first, and then tried to soften the message during the press...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

USD Punch Higher Ahead of the Fed and Where to Rotate

End of May call to buy the USD vs Euro and JPY and rolled into USD longs vs NZD, CNH, KRW and ZAR. USD rally momentum expanding with EM ignition.

Thomas Schroeder

Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

The Turkish lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Meeting USD Fresh Long Levels

High conviction USD longs were outlined last week and we met or are meeting fresh buy levels with some support re test risk into mid-June.

Thomas Schroeder

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