Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The yen has been the worst performing currency this year, but has been trading in a tight range around 150 against the dollar.</li><li>Recent developments suggest the Bank of Japan may make policy changes in March or April, possibly exiting negative rates.</li><li>Market may be getting ahead of itself with expectations for a hawkish shift from the BOJ, potentially leading to short-lived movements in the dollar-yen pair.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The yen has been the worst performing currency this year, but has been trading in a tight range around 150 against the dollar.Recent developments suggest the Bank of Japan may make policy changes in March or April, possibly exiting negative rates.Market may be getting ahead of itself with expectations for a hawkish shift from the BOJ, potentially leading to short-lived movements in the dollar-yen pair.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mizuho

Mizuho

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Mizuho Bank is a leading global bank with one of the largest customer bases in Japan, and an extensive international network covering financial and business centers around the world. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>JPY consistently fell against USD through January. There were many factors that contributed to this – the Noto earthquake on January 1 triggered JPY selling due to a sense of national crisis, household JPY selling became a theme with the introduction of the New NISA scheme, and to top it all, U.S. economic indicators put up a strong performance.</li><li>A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling, something I have previously expressed concern about in this report.</li><li>As Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki has said, the amount involved is not sufficient to determine the JPY rate trend, but the fact is that the forex markets are easily influenced by what is trending, and a trend of household JPY selling does indeed exist, and with its continued promotion as national policy, it seems natural to assume that it has contributed to JPY weakness to some extent. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JPY consistently fell against USD through January. There were many factors that contributed to this – the Noto earthquake on January 1 triggered JPY selling due to a sense of national crisis, household JPY selling became a theme with the introduction of the New NISA scheme, and to top it all, U.S. economic indicators put up a strong performance.A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling, something I have previously expressed concern about in this report.As Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki has said, the amount involved is not sufficient to determine the JPY rate trend, but the fact is that the forex markets are easily influenced by what is trending, and a trend of household JPY selling does indeed exist, and with its continued promotion as national policy, it seems natural to assume that it has contributed to JPY weakness to some extent. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The USD is trading marginally lower overall again this morning following signs that sticky inflationary pressures are emerging in—of all places—Japan as well.</li><li>Japan’s January CPI data released last night showed headline and core inflation easing but by quite a bit less than expected.</li><li>Headline inflation fell to 2.2%, from 2.6% in December but was expected to hit 1.9%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading marginally lower overall again this morning following signs that sticky inflationary pressures are emerging in—of all places—Japan as well.Japan’s January CPI data released last night showed headline and core inflation easing but by quite a bit less than expected.Headline inflation fell to 2.2%, from 2.6% in December but was expected to hit 1.9%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - JPY Perks Up on Sticky Inflation Signs

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>As observed elsewhere, inflation in Japan is sticky and the country is importing a considerable amount of inflation due to its weakening currency.</li>
<li>While too early to tweak monetary policy again, to limit currency volatility as much as possible, hinting at a less accommodative policy now would be opportune.</li>
<li>The Japanese Finance Minister appears to be anticipating potential Yen intervention.</li>
</ul>


As observed elsewhere, inflation in Japan is sticky and the country is importing a considerable amount of inflation due to its weakening currency.
While too early to tweak monetary policy again, to limit currency volatility as much as possible, hinting at a less accommodative policy now would be opportune.
The Japanese Finance Minister appears to be anticipating potential Yen intervention.


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SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

<ul>
<li>The slip in US yields has lead the US_Japan yield spread to move lower thereby putting USDJPY out of line with it</li>
<li>The danger is that once month end is over, USDJPY may “catch up” by trending down in the short term</li>
<li>In addition we see price action developments on USDJPY itself that reflects weakness in the uptrend</li>
</ul>


The slip in US yields has lead the US_Japan yield spread to move lower thereby putting USDJPY out of line with it
The danger is that once month end is over, USDJPY may “catch up” by trending down in the short term
In addition we see price action developments on USDJPY itself that reflects weakness in the uptrend


Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

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