External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The JPY continues to languish. Despite lower US bond yields since Q4 last year, when 10Y yields were trading around 5%, USDJPY remains close to its Q4 peaks near 152.</li><li>A BoJ rate hike—the first in 17 years—failed to budge the currency materially. By many measures, the currency looks cheap— very cheap.</li><li>So, what will it take to push the JPY higher? In no particular order, the following factors are liable to shape JPY trends in the next few months.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The JPY continues to languish. Despite lower US bond yields since Q4 last year, when 10Y yields were trading around 5%, USDJPY remains close to its Q4 peaks near 152.A BoJ rate hike—the first in 17 years—failed to budge the currency materially. By many measures, the currency looks cheap— very cheap.So, what will it take to push the JPY higher? In no particular order, the following factors are liable to shape JPY trends in the next few months.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - The JPY is Cheap—But Might Stay Cheap for a Little Longer

<ul><li>The JPY has weakened nearly 1% following the BoJ’s decision to ditch its negative rate policy.</li><li>The central bank will set a policy rate range of 0-0.1% from now on and will also abandon its YCC and ETF purchases, in line with the reports that emerged yesterday ahead of the decision.</li><li>This is the first rate hike in Japan in 17 years. BoJ Governor Ueda said it was important to keep policy settings accommodative, suggesting that there was little rush to add to rate hikes for now. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The JPY has weakened nearly 1% following the BoJ’s decision to ditch its negative rate policy.The central bank will set a policy rate range of 0-0.1% from now on and will also abandon its YCC and ETF purchases, in line with the reports that emerged yesterday ahead of the decision.This is the first rate hike in Japan in 17 years. BoJ Governor Ueda said it was important to keep policy settings accommodative, suggesting that there was little rush to add to rate hikes for now. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - JPY Slides After BoJ Rate Hike

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mizuho

Mizuho

Mizuho Bank is a leading global bank with one of the largest customer bases in Japan, and an extensive international network covering financial and business centers around the world. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>JPY consistently fell against USD through January. There were many factors that contributed to this – the Noto earthquake on January 1 triggered JPY selling due to a sense of national crisis, household JPY selling became a theme with the introduction of the New NISA scheme, and to top it all, U.S. economic indicators put up a strong performance.</li><li>A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling, something I have previously expressed concern about in this report.</li><li>As Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki has said, the amount involved is not sufficient to determine the JPY rate trend, but the fact is that the forex markets are easily influenced by what is trending, and a trend of household JPY selling does indeed exist, and with its continued promotion as national policy, it seems natural to assume that it has contributed to JPY weakness to some extent. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JPY consistently fell against USD through January. There were many factors that contributed to this – the Noto earthquake on January 1 triggered JPY selling due to a sense of national crisis, household JPY selling became a theme with the introduction of the New NISA scheme, and to top it all, U.S. economic indicators put up a strong performance.A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling, something I have previously expressed concern about in this report.As Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki has said, the amount involved is not sufficient to determine the JPY rate trend, but the fact is that the forex markets are easily influenced by what is trending, and a trend of household JPY selling does indeed exist, and with its continued promotion as national policy, it seems natural to assume that it has contributed to JPY weakness to some extent. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The USD is trading marginally lower overall again this morning following signs that sticky inflationary pressures are emerging in—of all places—Japan as well.</li><li>Japan’s January CPI data released last night showed headline and core inflation easing but by quite a bit less than expected.</li><li>Headline inflation fell to 2.2%, from 2.6% in December but was expected to hit 1.9%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading marginally lower overall again this morning following signs that sticky inflationary pressures are emerging in—of all places—Japan as well.Japan’s January CPI data released last night showed headline and core inflation easing but by quite a bit less than expected.Headline inflation fell to 2.2%, from 2.6% in December but was expected to hit 1.9%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - JPY Perks Up on Sticky Inflation Signs

<ul><li>The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.</li><li>It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.</li><li>The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

FX Snapshot - The JPY is Cheap—But Might Stay Cheap for a Little Longer

The JPY continues to languish. Despite lower US bond yields since Q4 last year, when 10Y yields were trading around 5%, USDJPY remains close to its...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - JPY Slides After BoJ Rate Hike

The JPY has weakened nearly 1% following the BoJ’s decision to ditch its negative rate policy. The central bank will set a policy rate range of 0...

Scotiabank

Forex Medium-Term Outlook(Feb, 2024)

A number of issues have coincided right from the beginning of the year, but the most concerning of them is the focus on household JPY selling

Mizuho

FX Daily - JPY Perks Up on Sticky Inflation Signs

The USD is trading marginally lower overall again this morning following signs that sticky inflationary pressures are emerging in—of all...

Scotiabank

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.

Scotiabank

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