Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain our Buy call, with a new fair value of Bt24.31 vs. Bt26.39 previously, following the downward revisions of our 2024-26E earnings forecasts.</li><li>Our fair value is based on a required rate of return of 4.7%.</li><li>The valuation metrics indicate that the stock is fundamentally attractive, both in terms of the valuation and the strong long-term growth prospects, alongside limited tactical downside risk.</li></ul>

We maintain our Buy call, with a new fair value of Bt24.31 vs. Bt26.39 previously, following the downward revisions of our 2024-26E earnings forecasts.Our fair value is based on a required rate of return of 4.7%.The valuation metrics indicate that the stock is fundamentally attractive, both in terms of the valuation and the strong long-term growth prospects, alongside limited tactical downside risk.

<ul><li>We maintain a Buy rating but revise down the fair value to Bt26.39 (vs. Bt36.58 previously) following the revisions to the 2024-26Eearnings forecasts.</li><li>We also raise the required rate of return to5.1% (vs. 4.2% previously) after adjusting the variables used for the beta calculation, based on the revisions to our house view assumptions.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the stock remains fundamentally attractive, both in terms of the valuation and the long-term growth prospects, while the tactical downside risk is limited.</li></ul>

We maintain a Buy rating but revise down the fair value to Bt26.39 (vs. Bt36.58 previously) following the revisions to the 2024-26Eearnings forecasts.We also raise the required rate of return to5.1% (vs. 4.2% previously) after adjusting the variables used for the beta calculation, based on the revisions to our house view assumptions.The valuation metrics suggest that the stock remains fundamentally attractive, both in terms of the valuation and the long-term growth prospects, while the tactical downside risk is limited.

Jmt Network Services - Earnings Forecasts Revised Down to Reflect Higher ECL Provision

<ul><li>We maintain a Buy rating and the 12M FV of Bt36.58.</li><li>Our valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally attractive, while the LT earnings prospects are strong, with EPS growth expected at a CAGR of 11% in 2024-26E.</li><li>The tactical risk is limited.JMT reported a 4Q23 net profit of Bt540mn (+10.3% YoY, +15% QoQ), slightly lower than what we had expected by 3.5%.</li></ul>

We maintain a Buy rating and the 12M FV of Bt36.58.Our valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally attractive, while the LT earnings prospects are strong, with EPS growth expected at a CAGR of 11% in 2024-26E.The tactical risk is limited.JMT reported a 4Q23 net profit of Bt540mn (+10.3% YoY, +15% QoQ), slightly lower than what we had expected by 3.5%.

Jmt Network Services - In-Line 4Q23 Earnings; Recovering Cash Collection

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Can benefit from years of strong growth in banks' debt collection</li>
<li>Returns remain exceptional at over 7% during last twelve months</li>
<li>Book value growth is astonishing from THB121m to THB5,755m in past 10 years</li>
</ul>


Can benefit from years of strong growth in banks' debt collection
Returns remain exceptional at over 7% during last twelve months
Book value growth is astonishing from THB121m to THB5,755m in past 10 years


JMT Network Services - Near Infinite Debt Collection Supply?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

Thailand

JMT Network Services PCL is involved in the debt collection business in Thailand.

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JMT Network Services (JMT TB)

COMPANY UPDATE - JMT Network Services

We maintain our Buy call, with a new fair value of Bt24.31 vs. Bt26.39 previously, following the downward revisions of our 2024-26E earnings...

Krungthai XSpring

Jmt Network Services - Earnings Forecasts Revised Down to Reflect Higher ECL Provision

We maintain a Buy rating but revise down the fair value to Bt26.39 (vs. Bt36.58 previously) following the revisions to the 2024-26Eearnings forecasts.

Krungthai XSpring

Jmt Network Services - In-Line 4Q23 Earnings; Recovering Cash Collection

Our valuation metrics suggest that the stock is fundamentally attractive, while the LT earnings prospects are strong, with EPS growth expected at a...

Krungthai XSpring

JMT Network Services - Near Infinite Debt Collection Supply?

JMT focuses on debt collection for banks and finance companies, where the flow of business can be especially strong for years, and where returns...

Daniel Tabbush

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

KCE could replace TIDLOR in the SET50 in Dec. ITC is a close add and could replace SAWAD. The impact on the stocks is big given the index is...

Brian Freitas

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