China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Contrast to weak EV demand and solar PV inventory correction abroad, domestic renewable capacities have been growing at such a neck-breaking speed that we foresee a utilization drop in 2023;</li>
<li>China’s firm and consistent renewable policy and a unified energy vision have been its strength,</li>
<li>But now have developed a few inconsistencies. Resolution of inconsistency push the sector to higher grounds. </li>
</ul>


Contrast to weak EV demand and solar PV inventory correction abroad, domestic renewable capacities have been growing at such a neck-breaking speed that we foresee a utilization drop in 2023;
China’s firm and consistent renewable policy and a unified energy vision have been its strength,
But now have developed a few inconsistencies. Resolution of inconsistency push the sector to higher grounds. 


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Chinese Renewable Energy Comes to Crossroads

<ul>
<li>NIO/LI: NIO to launch the all-new EC6 on Friday (+/-)</li>
<li>BYD/ TSLA /LI /XPEV/NIO: August China Automotive Delivery Data Update (+)</li>
<li>Gloated inventory in solar panel led to price collapse in Europe（/）</li>
</ul>


NIO/LI: NIO to launch the all-new EC6 on Friday (+/-)
BYD/ TSLA /LI /XPEV/NIO: August China Automotive Delivery Data Update (+)
Gloated inventory in solar panel led to price collapse in Europe（/）


China TMT Update-NIO/LI/XPEV/BYD/TSLA/Solar Power-All-New EC6/China Automotive Delivery Data

<ul>
<li>Luckin Coffee: Moutai Latte will be a long-term selling product, but shortage of raw materials leads to temporary outage（/）</li>
<li>Sungrow invested TopCon startup posted 2nd highest in energy conversion efficiency（/）</li>
<li>Tencent officially published Hunyuan foundation model at Tencent GDES 2023</li>
</ul>


Luckin Coffee: Moutai Latte will be a long-term selling product, but shortage of raw materials leads to temporary outage（/）
Sungrow invested TopCon startup posted 2nd highest in energy conversion efficiency（/）
Tencent officially published Hunyuan foundation model at Tencent GDES 2023


China TMT Update-Luckin/Tencent/Sungrow/Jolywood/Jinko/Drinda-Moutai Latte/Hunyuan LLM/Sungrowinvest

<ul>
<li>C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. </li>
<li>We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;</li>
<li>Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.</li>
</ul>


C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. 
We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;
Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

China

JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited manufactures solar products. The Company produces silicon wafers, solar cells and solar modules.

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JinkoSolar Holding (JKS US)

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Chinese Renewable Energy Comes to Crossroads

China’s firm and consistent renewable policy and a unified energy vision have been its strength, But now have developed a few inconsistencies.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-NIO/LI/XPEV/BYD/TSLA/Solar Power-All-New EC6/China Automotive Delivery Data

Gloated inventory in solar panel led to price collapse in Europe（/）；NIO/LI: NIO to launch the all-new EC6 on Friday (+/-)；BYD/TSLA/LI/XPEV/NIO:...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-Luckin/Tencent/Sungrow/Jolywood/Jinko/Drinda-Moutai Latte/Hunyuan LLM/Sungrowinvest

Luckin Coffee: Moutai Latte shortage of raw materials leads to temporary outage（/）Sungrow invested TopCon startup（/）Tencent officially published...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

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