Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.</li>
<li>If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.
If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.


Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-delivering-losses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61272" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses</a>, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61939" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price is unattractive in the context of its unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses.  </li>
<li>The IPO price is HK$16.42 and it closed -9% lower in the grey market. Our base-case DCF value of HK$15.44 per share is a 6% downside to the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. 
In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price is unattractive in the context of its unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses.  
The IPO price is HK$16.42 and it closed -9% lower in the grey market. Our base-case DCF value of HK$15.44 per share is a 6% downside to the IPO price.  


SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-sf-intra-city-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34916:1" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City (9699 HK)</a> is the largest Chinese independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider. It launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of $273 million at the IPO mid-point. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-delivering-losses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61272" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses</a>, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. </li>
<li>While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses/cash burn.   </li>
</ul>



SF Intra-City (9699 HK) is the largest Chinese independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider. It launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of $273 million at the IPO mid-point. 
In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. 
While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses/cash burn.   


SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p>
<p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.</p>
<p>A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). </p>
</div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-initiation-home-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57807" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery</a>, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-ipo-the-freight-debate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57957" rel="noopener">ANE IPO: The Freight Debate</a>, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.</p></div></div></div>


ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.
At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.
A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). 
In ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. In ANE IPO: The Freight Debate, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.</p><p>ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-initiation-home-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57807" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery</a>, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 4M21 results and recent developments. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs.</p></div>

ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch.ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.In ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 4M21 results and recent developments. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs.

China

Jiangsu Aucksun Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes rolled steel sheets and aluminum sheets.

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Jiangsu Aucksun Co Ltd A (002245 CH)

Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

We're starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially or are breaking, and the Energy $XLE and...

Vermilion Research

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Trading Debut

The IPO price is HK$16.42 and shares will be listed on 14 Dec. Our base-case DCF value of HK$15.44 per share is a 6% downside to the IPO price.

Arun George

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of...

Arun George

ANE IPO: Valuation Insights

At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, the net proceeds are $144 m. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range...

Arun George

ANE IPO: The Freight Debate

ANE is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. The PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE is worth a look for investors willing...

Arun George

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