Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. With US out, No leaders in Global Equities; European shares closed flat on thin Volumes;  China's measures to support Property market taking hold. </li>
<li>JAPAN.US Markets Off. NKY Futs vs Cash -0.1%; USDJPY 146.5; Nikkei Rebal: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori ADDED; Nippon Sheet Glass, Mitsui E&amp;S, Matsui Sec OUT; JFE 200bn Equity/CB raising  </li>
<li>JAPAN X: JFE Holdings Plans to Raise ¥200 Billion for Carbon Emissions Reduction Efforts. Still need clarity willingness of customers to accept "green pricing".  Watch Nippon Steel and Kobe Steel. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. With US out, No leaders in Global Equities; European shares closed flat on thin Volumes;  China's measures to support Property market taking hold. 
JAPAN.US Markets Off. NKY Futs vs Cash -0.1%; USDJPY 146.5; Nikkei Rebal: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori ADDED; Nippon Sheet Glass, Mitsui E&amp;S, Matsui Sec OUT; JFE 200bn Equity/CB raising  
JAPAN X: JFE Holdings Plans to Raise ¥200 Billion for Carbon Emissions Reduction Efforts. Still need clarity willingness of customers to accept "green pricing".  Watch Nippon Steel and Kobe Steel. 


Ohayo Japan| Lack of Direction with US Closed; JAPAN X: JFE to Raise ¥200bn for Green Steel Drive

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. 


Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX flat on the day as catalysts lacking; Tech down ahead Wed's  CPI as momentum builds for rate hike;  Broad strength in cyclicals - underlying economic strength?</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY  133.7;Buffet says he looking to raise Japan equity weighting; MHI awarded big defense contract for missiles: Denso gears up for EV transition </li>
<li>NUGGET.  Toyota gets serious in BEVs - we are excited about the prospects for the supply chain, particularly Denso and Panasonic </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX flat on the day as catalysts lacking; Tech down ahead Wed's  CPI as momentum builds for rate hike;  Broad strength in cyclicals - underlying economic strength?
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY  133.7;Buffet says he looking to raise Japan equity weighting; MHI awarded big defense contract for missiles: Denso gears up for EV transition 
NUGGET.  Toyota gets serious in BEVs - we are excited about the prospects for the supply chain, particularly Denso and Panasonic 


Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET - Toyota Gets Serious, Watch the Supply Chain

Japan

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

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JFE Holdings (5411 JP)

Ohayo Japan| Lack of Direction with US Closed; JAPAN X: JFE to Raise ¥200bn for Green Steel Drive

US Markets Off. NKY Futs vs Cash -0.1%; USDJPY 146.5; Nikkei Rebal: Mercari, Lasertec, Nitori ADDED; Nippon Sheet Glass, Mitsui E&S, Matsui Sec...

Mark Chadwick

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

US Back - in the Red despite strong housing; NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Yamato HD exits mail...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |No Catalysts-Equities Flat; NUGGET - Toyota Gets Serious, Watch the Supply Chain

While the US market looks for direction, in Japan, some positive headlines with help underline our bullish outlook. First, Warren Buffet in an...

Mark Chadwick

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