Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Investors had hoped to see tangible benefits of Taobao / Tmall access in Q424 results</li>
<li>But revenue growth acceleration was unimpressive, and core margins fell noticeably</li>
<li>We believe its disappointing Q424 numbers will result in near-term underperformance</li>
</ul>


Investors had hoped to see tangible benefits of Taobao / Tmall access in Q424 results
But revenue growth acceleration was unimpressive, and core margins fell noticeably
We believe its disappointing Q424 numbers will result in near-term underperformance


JD Logistics Q424 Earnings: Taobao / Tmall Access Fails to Generate Expected Benefits

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Despite being breakeven just quarters ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> has achieved profitability on par with global peers nearly 3x its size. Margin still has upside with further subsidiary integration;</li>
<li>JDL is still positioned to accelerate revenue by taking share from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-f-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44093:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (6936 HK)</a> in untapped opportunities, including domestic B2C (Taobao/Tmall), cross-border B2C (Kuayue acquisition), and B2B;</li>
<li>JDL's stock price rose 60%+ while it was our top pick for 2024. We reiterate the company as our TOP buy idea in the China logistics space for 2025;</li>
</ul>


Despite being breakeven just quarters ago, JD Logistics (2618 HK) has achieved profitability on par with global peers nearly 3x its size. Margin still has upside with further subsidiary integration;
JDL is still positioned to accelerate revenue by taking share from S.F. Holding (6936 HK) in untapped opportunities, including domestic B2C (Taobao/Tmall), cross-border B2C (Kuayue acquisition), and B2B;
JDL's stock price rose 60%+ while it was our top pick for 2024. We reiterate the company as our TOP buy idea in the China logistics space for 2025;


China Logistics (Part 2): All JD Logistic Roads Lead Back to S.F. Express

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>In the past week, one of the biggest stories in the Korean e-commerce/logistics market has been the entrance of JD Logistics into the South Korean market.</li>
<li>We believe that the ongoing tariff war between the US and China is likely to have accelerated this move by JD Logistics to find new markets for its products. </li>
<li>If JD.com/JD Logistics decide to expand aggressively in Korea, the major Korean e-commerce players (such as Coupang (CPNG US), Naver Corp (035420 KS), Gmarket, and 11st) may be negatively impacted.</li>
</ul>


In the past week, one of the biggest stories in the Korean e-commerce/logistics market has been the entrance of JD Logistics into the South Korean market.
We believe that the ongoing tariff war between the US and China is likely to have accelerated this move by JD Logistics to find new markets for its products. 
If JD.com/JD Logistics decide to expand aggressively in Korea, the major Korean e-commerce players (such as Coupang (CPNG US), Naver Corp (035420 KS), Gmarket, and 11st) may be negatively impacted.


JD Logistics Enters South Korea: Accelerated by Tariff War Between China and the US?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Even after the 28% surge in share price since the 1H24 result, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> still deserves a look as fundamentals have improved, especially with better cost control.</li>
<li>JDL is riding on scale economies with higher asset utilisation. Quarterly margins have sustained an uptrend, reaching the highest levels since 1Q21 and it will continue.</li>
<li>We like its lower reliance on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> and net cash of HK$2.83/share (28% of the share price). There is a massive upside in consensus forecasts too.</li>
</ul>


Even after the 28% surge in share price since the 1H24 result, JD Logistics (2618 HK) still deserves a look as fundamentals have improved, especially with better cost control.
JDL is riding on scale economies with higher asset utilisation. Quarterly margins have sustained an uptrend, reaching the highest levels since 1Q21 and it will continue.
We like its lower reliance on JD.com (9618 HK) and net cash of HK$2.83/share (28% of the share price). There is a massive upside in consensus forecasts too.


JD Logistics (2618 HK): There Are More Rooms

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.</li>
<li>However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In mid-June 2024, we had two expected ADDs and DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event and they remain unchanged even after the end of the reference period.
However, our capping flow expectations continue to change as the pro-forma post-rebalance weights change with share prices. In this insight, we have provided our latest flow estimates.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep 24: Final Ranks and Updated Flow Expectations

China

JD Logistics, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides cargo transportation, cargo distribution, warehousing, and other services. JD Logistics is located in China.

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JD Logistics (2618 HK)

JD Logistics Q424 Earnings: Taobao / Tmall Access Fails to Generate Expected Benefits

JD Logistics' Q424 results showed no benefit from almost a full quarter's worth of access to Alibaba's Taobao / Tmall platforms. We believe...

Tracking Traffic

China Logistics (Part 2): All JD Logistic Roads Lead Back to S.F. Express

JD Logistics has achieved profitability on par with global peers nearly 3x its size, with upside potential in margins and opportunities to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD Logistics Enters South Korea: Accelerated by Tariff War Between China and the US?

In the past week, one of the biggest stories in the Korean e-commerce/logistics market has been the entrance of JD Logistics into the South Korean...

Douglas Kim