Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (2899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Zijin Mining (2899 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK). 
The largest outflows will be on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK). 


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2023)

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-dmall-e-commerce-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36623:1" rel="noopener">Dmall Inc (1751691D CH)</a> is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Dmall provides cloud-based, end-to-end SaaS platform purpose-built for the Chinese retail industry.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Dmall Inc (1751691D CH) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Dmall provides cloud-based, end-to-end SaaS platform purpose-built for the Chinese retail industry.
In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


Dmall Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Path to Profitability Remains Murky and Related Party Sales an Issue

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-dmall-e-commerce-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36623:1" rel="noopener">Dmall Inc (1751691D CH)</a> is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Dmall provides cloud-based, end-to-end SaaS platform purpose-built for the Chinese retail industry.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Dmall Inc (1751691D CH) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Dmall provides cloud-based, end-to-end SaaS platform purpose-built for the Chinese retail industry.
In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Dmall Pre-IPO - The Positives - Ambitions of Aiding the Retail Digitization Journey for Retailers

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

JD Health International  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The previously stockpiled drugs/medical devices require a long cycle of digestion. As the industry beta brought by COVID-19 dividend would fade away, JD Health's performance growth could slow down accordingly.</li>
<li>Although JD Health divides its buiness into product revenue and service revenue, drug/product sales are still the underlying logic and business model, which is difficult to maintain high growth expectations.</li>
<li>Current valuation is in reasonable range. Since JD Health will be added to HSI INDEX, it could help boost share price. However, if business transformation fails, high valuation is unsustainable. </li>
</ul>


The previously stockpiled drugs/medical devices require a long cycle of digestion. As the industry beta brought by COVID-19 dividend would fade away, JD Health's performance growth could slow down accordingly.
Although JD Health divides its buiness into product revenue and service revenue, drug/product sales are still the underlying logic and business model, which is difficult to maintain high growth expectations.
Current valuation is in reasonable range. Since JD Health will be added to HSI INDEX, it could help boost share price. However, if business transformation fails, high valuation is unsustainable. 


JD Health (6618.HK) 23Q1 - As Industry Beta Fades, the Expectation Reversal Has yet to Come

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng index committee has added four stocks to take the number of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents to 80. A year late, but we're there!</li>
<li>The next leg of the increase in the number of index constituents will take us up to 100. There is no timeline, so this should take a couple of years.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.93% leading to a one-way trade of HK$5.7bn (US$730m). All adds will have over 2x ADV to buy from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng index committee has added four stocks to take the number of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents to 80. A year late, but we're there!
The next leg of the increase in the number of index constituents will take us up to 100. There is no timeline, so this should take a couple of years.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.93% leading to a one-way trade of HK$5.7bn (US$730m). All adds will have over 2x ADV to buy from passive trackers.


HSI Index Rebalance: Yippee! Finally at 80!

China

JD Health International Inc. operates drug stores. The Company retails Chinese and Western medicines, nutrition products, health care products, and other products. JD Health International markets its products throughout China.

Price Gauge
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JD Health International (6618 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2023)

The June rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use todays closing prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across the...

Brian Freitas

Dmall Pre-IPO - The Positives - Ambitions of Aiding the Retail Digitization Journey for Retailers

Dmall Inc (1751691D CH) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of...

Clarence Chu

JD Health (6618.HK) 23Q1 - As Industry Beta Fades, the Expectation Reversal Has yet to Come

As industry beta brought by COVID-19 dividend fades away, JD Health's performance growth would slow down.The current business model cannot support...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSI Index Rebalance: Yippee! Finally at 80!

The 4 adds get us to 80 members. The next leg up to 100 members should take a few years. 1-way turnover in June is 2.9% resulting in a 1-way trade...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2023)

The June rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use todays closing prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across the...

Brian Freitas

Dmall Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Path to Profitability Remains Murky and Related Party Sales an Issue

Dmall Inc (1751691D CH) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the not so positive...

Clarence Chu

Dmall Pre-IPO - The Positives - Ambitions of Aiding the Retail Digitization Journey for Retailers

Dmall Inc (1751691D CH) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of...

Clarence Chu

JD Health (6618.HK) 23Q1 - As Industry Beta Fades, the Expectation Reversal Has yet to Come

As industry beta brought by COVID-19 dividend fades away, JD Health's performance growth would slow down.The current business model cannot support...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSI Index Rebalance: Yippee! Finally at 80!

The 4 adds get us to 80 members. The next leg up to 100 members should take a few years. 1-way turnover in June is 2.9% resulting in a 1-way trade...

Brian Freitas