Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.</li>
<li>Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. </li>
<li>Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the "too big to fail banks" and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.</li>
</ul>


Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing turbulence on the global banking system.
Our trading strategy is to go long on a basket of three largest banks in Korea (KB, Shinhan, Hana) and go short on a basket of five smaller banks. 
Post collapse of SVB Financial, one clear signal appears to be increasing global capital allocation to the "too big to fail banks" and reduced capital allocation to regional banks.


Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

<ul>
<li>On Friday 10 March, Svb Financial (SIVB US) suddenly collapsed, becoming the largest bank to fail in the United States since the 2008 financial crisis.</li>
<li>In our view, the collapse of SVB Financial will likely have a negative near-term impact on the Korean banks. </li>
<li>Three ways that this will negatively impact Korean banks include risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean banks, and lower interest rate spreads. </li>
</ul>


On Friday 10 March, Svb Financial (SIVB US) suddenly collapsed, becoming the largest bank to fail in the United States since the 2008 financial crisis.
In our view, the collapse of SVB Financial will likely have a negative near-term impact on the Korean banks. 
Three ways that this will negatively impact Korean banks include risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean banks, and lower interest rate spreads. 


Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) - Impact on Korean Banks

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>K200 ad hoc change announcement date should be March 30 as the buyback ends on March 28, and rebalancing trading should occur on March 31.</li>
<li>From a juice-level perspective, the entry point and timing for JB Financial showed much better performance from EGM approval rather than the announcement.</li>
<li>We should consider gradually building up positions from this point until March 30 announcement or one day after (T-1 effective) while utilizing Kodex Banks ETF to hedge our long positions.</li>
</ul>


K200 ad hoc change announcement date should be March 30 as the buyback ends on March 28, and rebalancing trading should occur on March 31.
From a juice-level perspective, the entry point and timing for JB Financial showed much better performance from EGM approval rather than the announcement.
We should consider gradually building up positions from this point until March 30 announcement or one day after (T-1 effective) while utilizing Kodex Banks ETF to hedge our long positions.


Meritz Merger Approved: Let's Now Discuss Key Dates & Entry Points For LONG DGB Financial

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samyang-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9100:1" rel="noopener">Samyang Foods (003230 KS)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-greenfood-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19560:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Greenfood (005440 KS)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the close on 12 April.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19692:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Securities (008560 KS)</a> in early April.</li>
<li>Then we expect another 3 changes at the regular rebalance in June. The potential adds have moved sharply higher recently and there are flows from other index trackers too.</li>
</ul>



Samyang Foods (003230 KS) will replace Hyundai Greenfood (005440 KS) in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close on 12 April.
We expect DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) will replace Meritz Securities (008560 KS) in early April.
Then we expect another 3 changes at the regular rebalance in June. The potential adds have moved sharply higher recently and there are flows from other index trackers too.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes in April & June

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Despite differences in views on the legacy of Abenomics, many people agree that Abenomics played a key role and was a clear tipping point for corporate governance improvements in Japan.</li>
<li>Likewise, we believe Yoonomics will follow similar steps and make significant efforts to improve corporate governance reforms in Korea. </li>
<li>So far in 2023,<strong> CORPORATE ACTIVISM</strong> has been <strong>THE MOST IMPORTANT TOPIC</strong> in Korea's equity markets. </li>
</ul>


Despite differences in views on the legacy of Abenomics, many people agree that Abenomics played a key role and was a clear tipping point for corporate governance improvements in Japan.
Likewise, we believe Yoonomics will follow similar steps and make significant efforts to improve corporate governance reforms in Korea. 
So far in 2023, CORPORATE ACTIVISM has been THE MOST IMPORTANT TOPIC in Korea's equity markets. 


Abenomics Vs Yoonomics: Tipping Points of Corporate Governance Reforms in Japan and Korea

South Korea

JB Financial Group Co. Ltd., a holding company, provides a full range of consumer and commercial banking-related financial services.

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Jb Financial Group (175330 KS)

Investors' Capital Allocation Shift Among Korean Banks Post Collapse of SVB Financial

Svb Financial has collapsed and Credit Suisse is on the verge of collapse. We discuss a trading strategy on Korean banks amid the ongoing...

Douglas Kim

Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) - Impact on Korean Banks

The collapse of SVB Financial will negatively impact Korean banks due to risk-off investment sentiment, greater excuse to hold on to cash by Korean...

Douglas Kim

Meritz Merger Approved: Let's Now Discuss Key Dates & Entry Points For LONG DGB Financial

Entry points and key dates for long positions in DGB Financial following KOSPI 200 ad hoc change due to the Meritz merger

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes in April & June

There will be 2 changes to the index in April and then another 3 in June. Flows are significant on some stocks. The adds have all moved higher in...

Brian Freitas

Abenomics Vs Yoonomics: Tipping Points of Corporate Governance Reforms in Japan and Korea

Similar to how Abe left a legacy of significant improvements to corporate governance reforms in Japan, Yoon is also likely to seek a major...

Douglas Kim

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